Last Update 04 Dec 25

ENVX: Mobile Ramp Delays Will Set Up Compelling Future Upside Potential

Analysts have lowered their price target on Enovix to $16 from $25, reflecting concerns about a slower than expected mobile phone revenue ramp and the view that current 2026 consensus forecasts may be too optimistic.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates highlight a more cautious stance on Enovix, with reduced price targets reflecting tempered expectations for the pace of revenue growth and execution on key programs. While the long term narrative around advanced battery technology remains intact, the balance of risks around timelines and profitability has shifted.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts maintain positive ratings, indicating confidence that Enovix can ultimately execute on its technology roadmap despite near term delays.
The substantial capital raise of over $500M in Q3 is viewed as a strategic buffer that supports continued investment in capacity and customer programs, underpinning the company’s long term growth option value.
Even with lower price targets, upside is still implied from current levels, suggesting that the stock already discounts a more conservative mobile ramp and 2026 earnings profile.
Analysts note that setting more conservative expectations for 2026 could create room for positive revisions if execution on program milestones and customer wins improves.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are concerned that the slower than expected mobile phone revenue ramp signals execution risk in scaling Enovix’s technology into high volume consumer applications.
There is a view that Street consensus for calendar 2026 remains too aggressive, raising the risk of further estimate cuts and valuation compression if growth targets are not met.
The timing mismatch between the large Q3 capital raise and the delayed commercialization ramp heightens scrutiny on capital efficiency and return on invested capital.
With some estimates now at the low end of the Street for 2026, the bar for future performance is more clearly defined, and any additional slippage in milestones could pressure both sentiment and the company’s premium growth multiple.

What's in the News

Issued new revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, forecasting between $9.5 million and $10.5 million in sales. This offers clearer visibility into the near-term commercialization ramp (Corporate Guidance).
Completed a share repurchase program initiated on July 2, 2025, buying back 5,437,556 shares, or 2.82% of outstanding shares, for a total of $58.29 million. This signals management’s confidence and capital return focus (Buyback Tranche Update).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate unchanged at $26.90 per share, indicating no material shift in the long term intrinsic value assessment.
Discount Rate edged down slightly from 10.17% to 10.06%, implying a modest reduction in perceived risk or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth effectively unchanged at approximately 166.64%, signaling stable expectations for top line expansion over the forecast horizon.
Net Profit Margin essentially flat at roughly 20.51%, reflecting steady assumptions around long term profitability.
Future P/E eased marginally from 78.54x to 78.30x, suggesting a slightly lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Expansion into defense and smart eyewear markets offers promising revenue growth opportunities, driven by compliance and high-margin premium pricing strategies.
Upcoming high-volume production and next-gen battery advancements signal potential revenue and earnings growth aligned with 2025 smartphone and AR/VR launches.
Dependence on smartphone market success and high-capital manufacturing investments could strain finances and pose risks if demand or production efficiency falters.

Catalysts

About Enovix

Designs, develops, and manufactures lithium-ion battery cells in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Completion of the site acceptance testing for the high-volume manufacturing line in Malaysia is set to boost production capacity and support significant revenue growth with a focus on readiness for smartphone mass production in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Successful shipment of early engineering smartphone battery samples and positive safety test results indicate future revenue increase potential, pending successful customer qualification for anticipated commercial smartphone launches in 2025.
Expansion into the defense industry presents a near-term revenue growth catalyst, driven by increased demand for conventional graphite battery products and compliance with allied country supply chain requirements.
Development and anticipated shipments of custom battery cells for smart eyewear devices and AR/VR markets starting mid-2025 create potential for higher margins due to premium pricing in these high-energy density applications.
Ongoing advancements in next-generation battery models (EX-2M and EX-3M) and positive customer feedback on energy density performance suggest future earnings growth as these innovations meet evolving customer requirements and could enhance ASPs.

Enovix Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Enovix's revenue will grow by 171.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Enovix will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Enovix's profit margin will increase from -963.2% to the average US Electrical industry of 10.5% in 3 years.
If Enovix's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $48.3 million (and earnings per share of $0.21) by about April 2028, up from $-222.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $89.4 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-111.5 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 163.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -5.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Electrical industry at 21.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.95%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Enovix Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Dependence on successful customer qualification and high-volume production for smartphones in late 2025 could pose risks if delays occur, potentially impacting revenue forecasts.
High-capital expenditures required for ramping manufacturing lines could strain cash flow if customer demand does not materialize as anticipated.
Non-GAAP EBITDA and EPS losses forecasted for Q1 2025 suggest continued financial strain, indicating potential challenges in achieving profitability.
Competitive pressures from incumbent graphite battery technologies may constrain pricing power and market share gains, affecting future earnings growth.
Uncertainties in scaling production and manufacturing efficiency can lead to delays or increased costs, adversely impacting net margins.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $26.909 for Enovix based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $100.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $460.3 million, earnings will come to $48.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 163.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.9%.
Given the current share price of $5.83, the analyst price target of $26.91 is 78.3% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Enovix?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

ENVX: Expansion Of Asian Facilities Will Drive Battery Production Efficiency