Analysts Adjust Synovus Financial Outlook Amid Pinnacle Merger and Updated Valuation Forecasts

Key Takeaways

• Expansion in fast-growing Sun Belt markets and enhanced digital banking capabilities are driving customer acquisition, operational efficiency, and higher fee-based income.
  
• Focused business banking growth, strong credit quality, and advanced analytics adoption support sustained revenue, profitability, and client retention.
  
• Concentration risks, exposure to struggling commercial real estate, digital competition, and intense pricing pressure threaten margins, asset quality, and sustainable long-term earnings growth.

Catalysts

Operates as the bank holding company for Synovus Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking products and services in the United States.

• Benefiting from continued population and business migration to the Southeast, Synovus is expanding hiring and presence in high-growth Sun Belt markets, which is expected to drive above-average loan growth and customer acquisition, boosting long-term revenue and earnings.
  
• Accelerated investments in digital banking (e.g., loan origination, treasury management tools, payment modernization) and successful fintech partnerships are enhancing operational efficiency and improving customer loyalty, which should improve net margins and support higher fee-based income.
  
• Expansion of specialty and middle-market business banking, supported by new commercial banker hiring and focused relationship-building, is well positioned to capture increased demand from the region's small and mid-sized business formation, providing a catalyst for loan and fee revenue growth.
  
• Strong and improving credit quality, paired with disciplined expense management and operational leverage, are supporting margin expansion and profitability, suggesting that current valuations may not reflect ongoing improvements to net income and return on assets.
  
• Broad adoption of advanced analytics and tailored treasury/cash management solutions is improving Synovus's ability to cross-sell, manage risk, and retain clients, driving incremental fee revenue and optimizing lending, which may lead to higher overall earnings growth.

Synovus Financial Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Synovus Financial's revenue will grow by 6.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 33.0% today to 30.2% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $825.1 million (and earnings per share of $6.09) by about September 2028, up from $738.5 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from 9.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.02% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.07%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Synovus Financial Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Synovus's heavy geographic focus in the Southeastern U.S. creates outsized exposure to regional economic downturns, population shifts, or adverse local demographic trends, which could lead to greater volatility in loan demand, deposit growth, and ultimately revenue and earnings.
  
• The bank's significant exposure and recent payoff activity related to commercial real estate loans, including ongoing work-outs in the office sector, pose long-term risks given structural pressures on CRE markets, which may negatively impact asset quality, increase credit losses, and reduce net margins in more challenging economic cycles.
  
• Although Synovus is investing in technology and digital platforms, the rapid digitization of financial services and intensifying competition from fintechs and larger banks could threaten its ability to retain and attract digitally savvy customers, compressing fee income and impairing long-term revenue growth if innovation efforts lag behind peers.
  
• Persistent industry-wide pressure on net interest margins-driven by a lower-for-longer interest rate environment, high deposit betas, and aggressive market competition for both loans and deposits-may limit profitability improvements, even if loan growth remains robust.
  
• Heightened competition from larger banks and nonbank lenders (including private credit) is leading to increased pricing pressure on loan yields and talent, which could force Synovus to accept lower spreads or higher expenses, ultimately compressing net margins and weakening earnings growth over time.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $58.857 for Synovus Financial based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $65.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $50.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.7 billion, earnings will come to $825.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.1%.
• Given the current share price of $51.51, the analyst price target of $58.86 is 12.5% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.