Expanding Fintech Partnerships Will Drive Future Success

Key Takeaways

• Growth in Fintech Solutions through partnerships and credit sponsorship is expected to significantly boost revenue and earnings.
  
• Share buybacks and improved asset quality management are set to enhance earnings per share and net margins.
  
• Heavy reliance on fintech partners and REBL loans poses revenue and profitability risks amid potential market and regulatory changes and economic stress in the lending sector.

Catalysts

Operates as the financial holding company for The Bancorp Bank, National Association that provides banking products and services in the United States.

• The Bancorp is experiencing substantial growth in Fintech Solutions, driven by increasing volumes and expanded partnerships. This growth is expected to continue with credit sponsorship and higher fees from ACH, card, and payment processing. These initiatives are likely to boost revenue significantly in the coming years.
  
• The Fintech Solutions Group's addition of new partnerships and expansion of existing programs—particularly in credit sponsorship—is anticipated to drive significant increases in future earnings. This is due to expected balances reaching $1 billion by the end of 2025.
  
• The company plans substantial share buybacks totaling $150 million in 2025, which should reduce the number of shares outstanding and increase earnings per share (EPS).
  
• Improved management of substandard loans through portfolio sales and repayments indicates enhanced asset quality, potentially improving net margins by reducing provisions for credit losses.
  
• The anticipated adoption of higher-yielding loans with consumer fintech partnerships could lead to increased interest income alongside fee growth, bolstering overall earnings.

Bancorp Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Bancorp's revenue will decrease by 0.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 43.9% today to 67.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $339.4 million (and earnings per share of $7.94) by about March 2028, up from $217.5 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 9.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 10.9x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.21%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Bancorp Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The significant growth in fees from fintech activities, especially with credit sponsorship and payment processing, could become volatile if the fintech market faces regulatory changes or competition, potentially impacting revenue stability.
  
• The concentration in fintech partnerships might present a risk if any of these significant partners face financial difficulties, leading to potential revenue and profitability fluctuations due to dependency on a limited number of clients.
  
• Potential margin pressure is an ongoing risk, as the company's net interest margin has contracted due to cash balance growth driven by deposit increases, which may not be sustained if interest rates decline, impacting net income.
  
• The repayment of senior secured debt and potential future debt issuance related to buybacks may influence the firm's ability to maintain high levels of capital deployment for reinvestments or buybacks, affecting earnings growth expectations.
  
• The risks related to REBL loans and their portfolio stability could pose challenges if the real estate bridge lending sector experiences economic stress, potentially impacting net margins and earnings.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $69.0 for Bancorp based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $506.3 million, earnings will come to $339.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 9.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of $50.18, the analyst price target of $69.0 is 27.3% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.