Inter&Co - 60/30/30 Plan

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INTER&CO (INBR32 / INTR)

MONETIZATION AND OPERATIONAL LEVERAGE THESIS

March 2026 | Base: 4Q25 Earnings Release, Q4 2025 Conference Call

and Comparative Sector Analysis

This is a personal investment thesis, prepared based on public data,

earnings releases, and the official transcript of the 4Q25 conference

call held on February 11, 2026. It does not constitute a

recommendation to buy or sell securities. Consult your investment

advisor before making any decision.

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METHODOLOGICAL NOTE

This thesis adopts three time horizons with distinct classifications:

Short term (1Q26): aggressive, yet plausible

Medium term (2026): positive and defensible

Long term (2027): three explicit scenarios

The 2027 base scenario is deliberately sober. The optimistic scenario

requires sound execution. The bull scenario is presented solely as a reference.

The most robust core of this thesis is the combination of three verifiable facts:

revenue growing above expenses in a consistent manner; efficiency

declining quarter after quarter; and ROE already at 15.1% with a client base

still far from its maximum monetization potential. That is where the thesis becomes compelling.

The remaining elements, sector comparison, activation projections,

inferences regarding the Investor Day, and analysis of the Menin ecosystem/Forum,

constitute context and optional upside, not central pillars of the numerical model.

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PREFACE

In 2025, Inter delivered one of the most consistent trajectories among

Brazilian digital banks: record net income of R$1.312 billion, ROE of

15.1% in 4Q25, a credit portfolio growing 3.6 times the market, and

an efficiency ratio consistently declining from 48.4% to 45.5%.

The 60-30-30 plan, with targets of 60 million clients, 30% ROE,

30% efficiency, a R$100 billion loan portfolio, and R$5 billion in net income,

defines the strategic horizon. This thesis argues that Inter is undergoing

a real transition from an investment platform to a platform of

monetization and operational leverage.

In the 4Q25 conference call, CEO João Vitor Menin summarized the status

of the plan when questioned by analyst Mario Pierry:

"We are convinced here at Inter&Co that the deep banking model,

which by the way we invented ten years ago, is ready to produce

growth, ROE, and efficiency according to the goals of this plan.

I also believe that on our fourth year of the plan, 2026, will be

a great year in the direction of getting closer to these KPIs."

— João Vitor Menin, CEO, Conference Call Q4 2025

He further detailed the central mechanism of operational leverage:

"Our goal is to always grow our expenses less than our revenues,

producing operational leverage."

— João Vitor Menin, CEO, Conference Call Q4 2025

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1. THE 60-30-30 PLAN AND ITS FIVE TARGETS

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The plan contains five simultaneous targets. The table below compares each target

with the projection of the sober base-case scenario of this thesis.

Target Stated Sober Base Assessment

Total clients 60 million 50–54 million Challenging

ROE 30% 27–30% Achievable

Efficiency ratio 30% 33–37% (4Q27) Possible

Loan portfolio R$100 bn R$90–100 bn Plausible

Net income R$5.0 bn R$3.5–4.0 bn Requires sound execution

The CEO detailed the progress since the launch of the plan:

"We unveiled our six-thirty plan three years ago. It is still a

five-year plan and we are pleased that these first three years were

a tremendous success. Moving from 0% ROE to 15% today. From

25,000,000 clients back then to 43,000,000 clients today.

Efficiency started at 73%, and today stands at 45%."

— João Vitor Menin, CEO, Conference Call Q4 2025

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2. COMPETITIVE CONTEXT: INTER’S POSITIONING IN THE SECTOR

This section provides comparative context, not proof. The companies

listed operate in different geographies, stages of maturity, product mixes,

and regulatory environments, which limits the strength of any

absolute conclusion. The objective is to position Inter relative to

relevant peers, not to demonstrate unrestricted superiority.

— DATA POINT 1: PICPAY 4Q25 AS A SECTOR REFERENCE —

PicPay reported loan portfolio growth of +29% in 4Q25

and +128% over twelve months, expanding from R$10.6 billion to R$24.1 billion.

The mix also evolved: from 57% unsecured in 4Q24 to 49% in 4Q25,

indicating a sector-wide migration toward secured lending as a lever

for sustainable growth in a high interest rate environment.

For Inter to reach R$100 billion starting from R$48.3 billion in eight quarters,

the required growth rate is approximately 9.5% quarter-over-quarter.

Inter itself grew 10.1% quarter-over-quarter in 4Q25.

PicPay’s data serves as a sector feasibility reference, illustrating that

growth rates at this level have already been observed in the Brazilian

digital credit market. This does not constitute proof of specific

executability for Inter, given the differences in base, mix, and risk strategies.

— DATA POINT 2: CREDIT QUALITY COMPARISON (4Q25) —

IMPORTANT METHODOLOGICAL NOTE:

(a) CURRENCIES: Only Inter (INTR) reports in BRL. The other companies

report in USD. Conversion applied: USD x R$5.25 (February 2026 average).

(b) SOURCE: Data for KSPI, Sea/Monee ($SE), and MELI Credit ($MELI)

were obtained from a comparative table prepared by third parties based

on public disclosures. The NPL and CoR data for Sea/Monee ($SE),

in particular, were not directly verified in official filings within this analysis.

They should be treated as indicative estimates rather than verified primary data.

(c) COMPARABILITY: Kaspi operates in Kazakhstan under a distinct regulatory

framework. Sea/Monee has exposure to Southeast Asia. MELI operates as an

e-commerce platform with financial verticals. Lower NPL levels may reflect

product mix, loan vintage, or risk appetite rather than superior underwriting.

LOAN PORTFOLIOS CONVERTED TO BRL (exchange rate R$5.25/USD):

Company Original In BRL Growth

INTR R$48.3 bn R$48.3 bn +36%

NU ($NU) $32.7 bn ~R$171.7 bn +40%

KSPI ($KSPI) ~$5.7 bn ~R$30.0 bn ~-20%

SE ($SE) $9.2 bn ~R$48.3 bn +80%

MELI ($MELI) $12.5 bn ~R$65.6 bn ~+80%

RANKING BY LOAN PORTFOLIO SIZE (in BRL):

1. Nubank ($NU): ~R$171.7 bn

2. MELI Credit ($MELI): ~R$65.6 bn

3. Inter (INTR): R$48.3 bn

4. Sea/Monee ($SE): ~R$48.3 bn

5. KSPI ($KSPI): ~R$30.0 bn

Inter ranks third in absolute loan portfolio size when converted to BRL,

and not the largest. Nubank ($NU) has a portfolio approximately 3.5x larger.

This framing is important for analytical consistency.

FULL TABLE (portfolios in BRL):

Metric INTR NU ($NU) KSPI SE ($SE) MELI ($MELI)

Portfolio (BRL) R$48.3 bn ~R$171.7 bn ~R$30.0 bn ~R$48.3 bn ~R$65.6 bn

Growth +36% +40% ~-20% +80% ~+80%

NPL >90d ~4.1% 6.6% n/a ~1.1%* ~5–6%

Cost of Risk 5.4% ~8–9% 2.2% n/a ~8–10%

NPL Coverage 141% 184%** ~100%+ high ~22% Allow.

Secured/Unsec. 67/33% ~30/70% ~50/50 0/100% ~0/100%

Funding Cost 64–68% CDI 87% IB n/a n/a Third-party

* Indicative data not directly verified in primary source

** Nubank: coverage of 184% on a declining trajectory. When coverage declines while NPL increases, it may indicate that provisioning is not keeping pace with loan deterioration

WHAT THIS FRAMEWORK SUGGESTS (WITH APPROPRIATE CAVEATS):

Based on the available data, Inter appears to be among the most

conservative loan portfolio profiles among listed peers, with 67% secured credit,

NPL >90d of ~4.1%, and cost of risk of 5.4%. The combination of

meaningful growth (+36% YoY) with controlled credit quality indicators

is the most clearly documented differentiator of Inter in this comparison.

Two points deserve particular emphasis:

1. AVAILABLE MIX LEVERAGE:

With 33% unsecured exposure, Inter retains room to incrementally expand

this segment, increasing average yield and NIM without necessarily

deteriorating overall portfolio quality. Nubank ($NU) and MELI ($MELI)

operate close to 70–100% unsecured, with limited flexibility in mix.

This optionality for acceleration represents a structural characteristic

of Inter that is not easily replicable by competitors in the short term.

2. FUNDING COST:

With elevated Selic levels, Inter’s funding cost of 64–68% of CDI versus

87% for Nubank’s Interbank represents a structural spread advantage.

Applied over a portfolio scaling toward R$100 billion, this difference

becomes increasingly material in absolute terms.

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3. SHORT TERM (1Q26): AGGRESSIVE, YET PLAUSIBLE

The 1Q26 projection combines revenue growth at the recent pace

with partial normalization of expenses that exhibited

exceptional behavior in 4Q25. Four items are particularly relevant:

1. D&A: R$112 million (+85% YoY)

The CFO confirmed during the call:

“Depreciation and amortization grew 33% quarter on quarter or

85% year on year, driven primarily by a one-off impairment

related to POS terminals.”

— Santiago Stel, CFO, Conference Call Q4 2025

Projection for 1Q26: normalization to ~R$88–95 million

Classification: WELL SUPPORTED (explicitly confirmed as non-recurring)

2. Personnel expenses: R$313 million (+9.9% QoQ)

The CFO explained:

“Personnel expenses increased due to seasonal impacts from

profit sharing provisions and the annual collective agreement,

as well as due to the seniorization of our team.”

— Santiago Stel, CFO, Conference Call Q4 2025

Projection for 1Q26: partial normalization to ~R$292–300 million

Classification: PLAUSIBLE due to seasonality, without precise public quantification

3. Tax expenses: R$225 million (+18.5% QoQ)

Typical fourth-quarter fiscal seasonality

Projection: ~R$200–210 million

Classification: REASONABLE

4. Inter Loop: R$52 million (+33.9% QoQ)

Year-end promotional activity

Projection: ~R$41 million

Classification: REASONABLE

PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENT 1Q26 (CONSERVATIVE / AGGRESSIVE RANGE):

Item (R$ million) 4Q25 1Q26 Cons. 1Q26 Agg.

Gross Revenue Total 4,294 4,465 4,598

Revenue Deductions (1,896) (1,940) (1,964)

Net Revenue Total 2,398 2,525 2,634

Provisions (CoR) (693) (710) (728)

Net After Losses 1,705 1,815 1,906

Administrative Expenses (589) (600) (607)

Personnel Expenses (313) (300) (292)

D&A (112) (95) (88)

Tax Expenses (225) (210) (200)

Total OPEX (1,239) (1,205) (1,187)

EBT 465 610 719

Taxes (~14%) (63) (85) (101)

Income incl. minorities 402 525 618

Minority interest (28) (37) (43)

NET INCOME 374 ~450 ~575

EFFICIENCY RATIO 1Q26:

Scenario Numerator Denominator Ratio

4Q25 Reported 1,014 2,348 45.5%

4Q25 Normalized 967 2,348 43.2%

1Q26 Conservative 995 2,469 40.3%

1Q26 Aggressive 987 2,579 38.3%

The improvement in efficiency is primarily driven by strong revenue

combined with operational dilution, rather than structural cost reductions.

This interpretation aligns directly with management’s commentary:

"Revenue growth substantially outpaced expense growth, resulting

in a nearly 300-basis-point improvement in efficiency ratio."

— Conference Call Q4 2025

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4. MEDIUM TERM (2026): POSITIVE AND DEFENSIBLE

The 2026 horizon represents the most defensible component of this thesis.

Starting from a base between R$450 and R$575 million in 1Q26,

and assuming moderate operational leverage, full-year net income

is expected to range between R$2.0 and R$2.5 billion.

2026 Assumptions Conservative Base Optimistic

Revenue growth q/q ~6–7% ~8–9% ~10–11%

OPEX growth q/q ~3% ~2% ~1.5%

Avg efficiency 2026 ~41–42% ~38–40% ~35–37%

Full-year net income ~R$1.8 bn ~R$2.2 bn ~R$2.7 bn

The central argument is straightforward and supported by data:

headcount remained stable at approximately 4,100 employees throughout 2025,

as confirmed by the CFO:

"Headcount remains stable at around 4,100 employees through 2025."

— Santiago Stel, CFO, Conference Call Q4 2025

With personnel costs growing at a controlled pace and revenue expansion

driven by multiple vectors already in execution, operational leverage

becomes a mathematical consequence of the current structure,

rather than a speculative assumption.

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5. LONG TERM (2027): THREE EXPLICIT SCENARIOS

METHODOLOGICAL WARNING: Projecting seven consecutive quarters is

inherently imprecise. Any deviation in credit quality,

macroeconomic environment, or competitive dynamics may materially

alter the outcome. The three scenarios below contain explicit

and distinct assumptions.

QUARTERLY TRAJECTORY — SOBER BASE SCENARIO:

Quarter Net Revenue Efficiency Net Income

4Q25 (norm.) 2,348 43.2% 374

1Q26E 2,474 40.3% ~450

2Q26E 2,647 38.5% ~490

3Q26E 2,832 36.8% ~540

4Q26E 3,030 35.2% ~600

1Q27E 3,242 33.8% ~670

2Q27E 3,469 32.5% ~750

3Q27E 3,712 31.3% ~845

4Q27E 3,972 30.2% ~950

QUARTERLY TRAJECTORY — OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO:

Quarter Net Revenue Efficiency Net Income

4Q25 (norm.) 2,348 43.2% 374

1Q26E 2,579 38.3% ~575

2Q26E 2,811 35.8% ~635

3Q26E 3,064 33.5% ~700

4Q26E 3,340 31.4% ~775

1Q27E 3,641 29.4% ~860

2Q27E 3,968 27.5% ~960

3Q27E 4,325 25.7% ~1,100

4Q27E 4,714 24.0% ~1,250

SUMMARY OF THE THREE SCENARIOS FOR 2027:

SOBER BASE OPTIMISTIC BULL

Revenue q/q ~7% ~9% ~11%

Cost q/q ~2.5% ~2.0% ~1.5%

Efficiency (4Q27) ~30–33% ~24–28% ~20–24%

Net Income 2027 R$3.5–4.0 bn R$4.5–5.0 bn R$5.0–5.5 bn

ROE 2027 ~27–30% ~33–37% ~38–42%

60-30-30 target Near Achieved Surpassed

Classification Defensible Aggressive Bull case

SENSITIVITY OF CoR ON 2027 NET INCOME:

One of the main execution risks is the trajectory of the cost of risk (CoR)

as the loan portfolio accelerates and private payroll lending matures.

The table below illustrates the impact of different CoR levels on projected

2027 net income, assuming a R$95 billion portfolio (sober base case):

CoR 2027 Annual Provision Impact vs Base Net Income 2027

5.0% ~R$4.75 bn +R$475 million ~R$4.0–4.5 bn

5.5% ~R$5.23 bn base ~R$3.5–4.0 bn

6.0% ~R$5.70 bn -R$475 million ~R$3.0–3.5 bn

6.5% ~R$6.18 bn -R$950 million ~R$2.5–3.0 bn

7.0% ~R$6.65 bn -R$1.42 bn ~R$2.1–2.5 bn

The CFO highlighted the maturation dynamics of private payroll lending:

"The ninety day past due loan portfolio increased from 4.5% to 4.7%

mainly as a consequence of the dynamics of the private payroll product,

in which earlier cohorts have passed the ninety-day mark."

— Santiago Stel, CFO, Conference Call Q4 2025

This represents the most material risk in the thesis.

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6. THE R$100 BILLION CREDIT TARGET

Inter closed 4Q25 with a R$48.3 billion loan portfolio, growing 36% YoY,

3.6 times the market. To reach R$100 billion by 4Q27 within eight quarters,

the required growth rate is approximately 9.5% per quarter.

Inter already achieved 10.1% q/q in 4Q25.

Growth drivers:

Product Balance (4Q25) YoY Risk Profile

Private payroll loans R$1.9 bn new Low/Medium

Mortgage financing R$10.0 bn +48% Low

Credit cards R$15.3 bn +29% Medium

Personal loans R$12.1 bn +47% Medium

Home equity R$4.6 bn +35% Low

Management commentary:

"Loan book grew 36% year on year with quarterly growth accelerating

to 10%, or 40% annualized."

— CFO, Conference Call Q4 2025

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7. BASE ACTIVATION: OPTIONAL UPSIDE, NOT BASE ASSUMPTION

Inter has 43.1 million registered clients and 25 million active clients.

The 18 million inactive clients represent potential upside,

but are not included as a base assumption.

Key datapoints:

- Net ARPAC: R$35.1

- Mature client ARPAC: R$91

- Cost to serve: R$13.8

- Gross margin per client: R$21.2

Implication:

Mature clients monetize significantly better,

while cost to serve remains stable.

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8. GLOBAL EXPANSION: OPTIONALITY

The U.S. banking license (Federal Reserve + Florida OFR, January 2026)

represents strategic optionality.

"This will unlock significant benefits, such as lower operational costs,

greater independence, and reduced funding costs."

— CEO, Conference Call Q4 2025

Short-term financial impact: limited

Long-term strategic relevance: high

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9. CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND DIVIDENDS

Dividend policy:

20% payout, 80% retained

"We have been paying dividends at a 20% payout ratio for the past

three years."

— CEO, Conference Call Q4 2025

Projected equity supports sustained ROE expansion.

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10. STRUCTURAL RISKS

RISK 1 — COST OF RISK (MOST MATERIAL)

NPL >90d increased from 4.5% to 4.7%.

RISK 2 — FEE INCOME PRESSURE

Fee income ratio declined from 30% to 25%.

RISK 3 — MACRO ENVIRONMENT

High interest rates may pressure both funding and credit quality.

RISK 4 — COMPETITION

Nubank, Mercado Pago, and PicPay operate with different scale and dynamics.

RISK 5 — EXECUTION RISK

The thesis depends on consistent execution over multiple quarters.

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11. SHORT-TERM CATALYSTS

- 1Q26 earnings release

- Investor Day (May 2026)

These events may trigger re-rating.

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12. THE MENIN ECOSYSTEM AND THE FORUM

This section is qualitative.

Key insight:

Inter is not only a bank, but an ecosystem platform.

Components:

- CNN Brasil

- Rádio Itatiaia

- MRV

- Log

Strategic implications:

1. Zero-CAC acquisition through content

2. Proprietary traffic channels

3. Brand reinforcement

4. Credit origination advantages

5. SME pipeline generation

The Forum operates as:

A monetization engine disguised as a social platform.

Additional strategic layer:

Content feeding LLMs and future AI-driven discovery channels.

This represents a structural competitive advantage not yet fully priced by the market.

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13. FINAL VERDICT

Short term (1Q26):

Aggressive, yet plausible

Medium term (2026):

Positive and defensible

Long term (2027):

Achievable with execution

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CONCLUSION

The core of the thesis is grounded in three observable facts:

- Revenue growth exceeding expense growth

- Continuous improvement in efficiency

- ROE already at 15.1% with significant monetization potential

Inter is undergoing a real transition toward a scalable profitability model.

The thesis does not assume certainty in achieving the 60-30-30 targets,

but demonstrates that current trajectory is consistent with approaching them.

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DISCLAIMER

This is a personal investment thesis based exclusively on public data.

It does not constitute investment advice.

Projections involve uncertainty and may be materially affected by

macroeconomic, regulatory, and competitive factors.

Consult a licensed investment advisor before making any decision.