Last Update 18 Dec 25
Fair value Increased 2.73%HWC: Share Repurchases And Stable Credit Trends Will Support Balanced Outlook
Analysts have nudged their price target on Hancock Whitney higher to approximately $72.17 from $70.25. This reflects modestly improved fair value assumptions despite slightly softer revenue growth and profit margin expectations, paired with a marginally higher projected future P/E multiple.
What's in the News
- Board of Directors authorizes a new share repurchase plan on December 10, 2025, allowing buybacks of up to 5% of issued and outstanding shares through December 31, 2026 (company announcement)
- Under the buyback announced on December 12, 2024, the company has completed repurchases totaling 4,306,000 shares, representing about 5.06% of shares, for $251.04 million as of December 10, 2025 (company filing)
- From October 1, 2025 to December 10, 2025, the company repurchased 2,543,500 shares, or roughly 3% of its share base, for $150.9 million under the existing program (company filing)
- From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Hancock Whitney repurchased 662,500 shares, about 0.78% of shares, for $40.06 million as part of the same buyback plan (company filing)
- For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, net charge offs were $11.43 million, improving from $18.03 million in the same quarter a year earlier (earnings disclosure)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from $70.25 to about $72.17 per share.
- Discount Rate has edged higher, moving from approximately 6.78% to about 6.99%, implying a modestly higher required return.
- Revenue Growth has eased moderately, with long term assumptions reduced from roughly 7.92% to about 6.96%.
- Net Profit Margin has been trimmed slightly, decreasing from about 29.64% to roughly 29.27%.
- Future P/E has inched up, rising from approximately 13.01x to about 13.06x on forward earnings.
Key Takeaways
- Continued hiring in high-growth markets and Sabal Trust Company acquisition are expected to enhance revenue growth and loan expansion.
- Share repurchase program and rate-cut expectations aim to boost EPS and maintain earnings resilience amidst interest rate fluctuations.
- Economic uncertainty, credit risks, seasonal outflows, and integration expenses may hinder Hancock Whitney's revenue, earnings, and profitability amidst evolving market conditions.
Catalysts
About Hancock Whitney- Operates as the financial holding company for Hancock Whitney Bank that provides traditional and online banking services to commercial, small business, and retail customers in the United States.
- The acquisition of Sabal Trust Company is projected to close soon, with expectations to enhance noninterest income by 9% to 10% year-over-year, contributing to overall revenue growth.
- The company plans to continue hiring revenue producers, with a target of adding 20 to 30 new personnel, particularly in high growth markets like Texas and Florida, which is expected to drive loan growth and increase revenue.
- The repricing of CDs at lower rates and favorable funding mix adjustments have been guiding a modest expansion in net interest margin (NIM) and net interest income (NII) growth of 3% to 4% in 2025, thus supporting earnings growth.
- Hancock Whitney intends to continue its share repurchase program at similar or slightly higher levels, which could boost EPS through reduced share count.
- The expectation of 3 rate cuts over the remainder of 2025 is anticipated to lower deposit costs further, offsetting lower loan yields, and contributing to margin stability and earnings resilience despite interest rate fluctuations.
Hancock Whitney Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Hancock Whitney's revenue will grow by 7.9% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 33.2% today to 29.6% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $525.8 million (and earnings per share of $6.45) by about September 2028, up from $468.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 13.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from 11.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.9x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.52% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Hancock Whitney Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Economic uncertainty and rapidly evolving conditions may hinder Hancock Whitney's ability to project results accurately, potentially impacting future revenue and earnings.
- Loan growth outlook is tempered by higher payoffs and uncertainty in client sentiment, which may affect net interest margins and future earnings.
- Concerns about tariffs and potential macroeconomic impacts on small businesses pose credit risks, potentially affecting earnings through increased provisions for credit losses.
- Seasonal outflows and a decline in deposits, combined with challenges in attracting new hires for revenue generation, may limit capital available for loan growth and impact overall revenue.
- Increased expenses are expected from the Sabal Trust transaction, and any inefficiencies in integrating or controlling costs may reduce net margins and overall profitability.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $70.25 for Hancock Whitney based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.8 billion, earnings will come to $525.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 13.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
- Given the current share price of $62.67, the analyst price target of $70.25 is 10.8% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.