Last Update09 Sep 25Fair value Increased 0.90%
Analysts raised Hancock Whitney’s price target to $70.25 on Q2 loan growth, net interest margin expansion, and expected Fed rate cuts, though some caution remains due to outperformance YTD and moderating revenue growth forecasts.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts expect upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to positively impact regional bank valuations, serving as catalysts for Hancock Whitney’s stock.
- Strong Q2 results, including approximately 6% loan growth (LQA), enhanced asset quality, and progress with the Sabal Trust Company acquisition, supported upward price target revisions.
- Ongoing positive loan growth trends, highlighted by 6.3% growth in period-end balances, as well as solid net interest income growth and net interest margin expansion, have reinforced confidence among bullish analysts.
- Bearish analysts flagged that Hancock Whitney’s shares have already outperformed year-to-date, and much of the positive outlook is now reflected in the current stock price.
- There are concerns about a slower revenue growth trajectory for Hancock Whitney in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 relative to peers, leading to more neutral to cautious stances.
What's in the News
- Piper Sandler raised Hancock Whitney's price target to $72 from $70 and maintained an Overweight rating, citing strong Q2 results, robust LQA loan growth of about 6%, improved asset quality, and strategic advances, including the Sabal Trust Company acquisition (Periodicals).
- Hancock Whitney reported $17.8 million in net charge-offs for Q2 2025, up from $10.3 million in Q1, representing 0.31% of average total loans annualized versus 0.18% in Q1 (Key Developments).
- The company completed the repurchase of 1.28% of its shares (1.1 million shares) for $60.08 million as part of its buyback program announced in December 2024, with 750,000 shares repurchased in Q2 alone (Key Developments).
- Enhanced asset quality and continued loan growth have been highlighted as strengths in the latest analyst commentary and quarterly performance (Periodicals).
- Strategic M&A activity, specifically the Sabal Trust Company acquisition, is viewed as a positive driver for future growth and was noted as contributing to recent performance improvements (Periodicals).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Hancock Whitney
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $69.62 to $70.25.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Hancock Whitney has fallen slightly from 8.2% per annum to 7.9% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Hancock Whitney remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 12.90x to 13.01x.
Key Takeaways
- Continued hiring in high-growth markets and Sabal Trust Company acquisition are expected to enhance revenue growth and loan expansion.
- Share repurchase program and rate-cut expectations aim to boost EPS and maintain earnings resilience amidst interest rate fluctuations.
- Economic uncertainty, credit risks, seasonal outflows, and integration expenses may hinder Hancock Whitney's revenue, earnings, and profitability amidst evolving market conditions.
Catalysts
About Hancock Whitney- Operates as the financial holding company for Hancock Whitney Bank that provides traditional and online banking services to commercial, small business, and retail customers in the United States.
- The acquisition of Sabal Trust Company is projected to close soon, with expectations to enhance noninterest income by 9% to 10% year-over-year, contributing to overall revenue growth.
- The company plans to continue hiring revenue producers, with a target of adding 20 to 30 new personnel, particularly in high growth markets like Texas and Florida, which is expected to drive loan growth and increase revenue.
- The repricing of CDs at lower rates and favorable funding mix adjustments have been guiding a modest expansion in net interest margin (NIM) and net interest income (NII) growth of 3% to 4% in 2025, thus supporting earnings growth.
- Hancock Whitney intends to continue its share repurchase program at similar or slightly higher levels, which could boost EPS through reduced share count.
- The expectation of 3 rate cuts over the remainder of 2025 is anticipated to lower deposit costs further, offsetting lower loan yields, and contributing to margin stability and earnings resilience despite interest rate fluctuations.
Hancock Whitney Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Hancock Whitney's revenue will grow by 7.9% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 33.2% today to 29.6% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $525.8 million (and earnings per share of $6.45) by about September 2028, up from $468.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 13.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from 11.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.9x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.52% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Hancock Whitney Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Economic uncertainty and rapidly evolving conditions may hinder Hancock Whitney's ability to project results accurately, potentially impacting future revenue and earnings.
- Loan growth outlook is tempered by higher payoffs and uncertainty in client sentiment, which may affect net interest margins and future earnings.
- Concerns about tariffs and potential macroeconomic impacts on small businesses pose credit risks, potentially affecting earnings through increased provisions for credit losses.
- Seasonal outflows and a decline in deposits, combined with challenges in attracting new hires for revenue generation, may limit capital available for loan growth and impact overall revenue.
- Increased expenses are expected from the Sabal Trust transaction, and any inefficiencies in integrating or controlling costs may reduce net margins and overall profitability.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $70.25 for Hancock Whitney based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.8 billion, earnings will come to $525.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 13.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
- Given the current share price of $62.67, the analyst price target of $70.25 is 10.8% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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