Overvalued Projections Will Expose Sun Belt Banking Vulnerabilities

Key Takeaways

• Confidence in strong loan growth and sector consolidation potential is elevating expectations for future revenue and deposit gains in core regional markets.
  
• Industry-leading efficiency and credit quality are supporting projections of stable earnings and resilient net interest margins despite pressure from digitalization and interest rate shifts.
  
• A strong regional economy, prudent risk management, and disciplined expansion position Bank7 for sustained, stable growth and resilience amid changing market and competitive conditions.

Catalysts

Operates as a bank holding company for Bank7 that provides banking and financial services to individual and corporate customers.

• Expectations for sustained strong loan growth driven by robust economic conditions in core markets (Oklahoma and Texas), combined with ongoing U.S. population and business expansion in these regions, could be amplifying revenue projections and supporting a higher stock valuation.
  
• Investor optimism around continued cost efficiency-reflected in the company's industry-leading efficiency ratio and disciplined underwriting-may be projecting elevated long-term net margins and stable earnings, even as ongoing digitalization pressures industry costs.
  
• Anticipated stability or improvement in credit quality, with a continued clean non-performing asset (NPA) profile and minimal charge-offs, may be embedding assumptions of persistently low credit losses, thus boosting future earnings expectations.
  
• The belief that Bank7 is well-positioned to benefit from future consolidation within the banking sector-including attractive M&A opportunities in high-growth regional markets-could be inflating forecasts for long-term deposit and revenue growth.
  
• Prevailing confidence in Bank7's ability to navigate a potentially lower or more volatile interest rate environment, via strong balance sheet management (rate floors, floaters) and a diversified lending portfolio, may be leading to expectations of relatively resilient net interest margins in future periods.

Bank7 Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Bank7's revenue will grow by 1.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 46.1% today to 37.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $37.2 million (and earnings per share of $3.75) by about July 2028, down from $44.3 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.5x on those 2028 earnings, up from 10.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.19% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.4%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Bank7 Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Sustained population and economic growth in Bank7's core Sun Belt and Midwest regions (noted as Oklahoma and Texas), combined with a strong local economic backdrop, continues to underpin robust loan and deposit demand, supporting ongoing loan book and revenue expansion.
  
• The bank's stable and industry-leading net interest margin (NIM), enabled by efficient cost controls and a historically low efficiency ratio, positions it to maintain resilient net margins even as deposit costs modestly rise.
  
• Consistent asset quality and disciplined underwriting, reflected in clean credit metrics and declining nonperforming assets, reduce the risk of significant credit losses, underpinning earnings stability over the long term.
  
• Bank7's adaptability in shifting its energy lending away from riskier segments and into more stable, hedged production finance-alongside portfolio diversification in C&I and hospitality-suggests the ability to manage portfolio concentration and cyclicality, helping to guard long-term profitability.
  
• Ongoing sector consolidation and the bank's active consideration of disciplined M&A or talent lift-outs provide opportunities to accelerate growth, expand the deposit base, and achieve greater operational scale, potentially boosting future revenue and earnings.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $53.0 for Bank7 based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $100.4 million, earnings will come to $37.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.
  
• Given the current share price of $48.82, the analyst price target of $53.0 is 7.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.