Last Update 17 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 0.83%

GNTX: Stronger Global Auto Demand Will Drive Shares Higher In Coming Years

The Gentex analyst price target has inched higher by approximately $2 to $32, as analysts cite stronger global light vehicle production, favorable currency and commodity trends, and improved U.S. auto demand forecasts supporting modestly better long term fundamentals.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates highlight a generally constructive but measured stance on Gentex, with price targets inching higher as analysts recalibrate forecasts for the broader auto cycle and Gentex's growth prospects.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to stronger global light vehicle production as a key driver supporting Gentex's revenue growth trajectory and justifying modest price target increases toward the low 30s.
Favorable currency and commodity trends are viewed as tailwinds for margins, supporting the case for stable to improving profitability without significant price increases to customers.
Upward revisions to U.S. auto sales forecasts for 2025 and 2026, including expectations for mid teen million unit volumes, are seen as reinforcing Gentex's volume visibility and reducing near term execution risk.
Neutral ratings paired with higher targets suggest that, while valuation is no longer deeply discounted, analysts see reasonable upside as Gentex executes against a more supportive macro and industry backdrop.

Bearish Takeaways

Despite target hikes, the persistence of Neutral ratings indicates that analysts still view the risk reward as balanced, reflecting limited conviction that Gentex will materially outperform peers.
Cautious assumptions around battery electric vehicle mix beyond 2026 signal concern that product mix and adoption trends could temper longer term growth versus more aggressive EV centric suppliers.
The modest magnitude of price target increases suggests that expectations for multiple expansion remain conservative, with analysts waiting for clearer evidence of sustained margin outperformance.
Broader sector adjustments, including cuts to adjacent auto related segments, underscore that macro and competitive risks remain a drag on the valuation framework, even as Gentex benefits from current cyclical strength.

What's in the News

Gentex and The Genie Company enter a partnership to integrate Genie's Aladdin Connect smart garage platform into Gentex's HomeLink car to home system, enabling secure, cloud based control of garage doors via connected vehicles and the HomeLink app (Client Announcements).
Gentex announces that nearly any existing garage door can be retrofitted with Genie's Aladdin Connect kit, expanding the addressable market for HomeLink enabled smart home integration (Client Announcements).
At the SEMA show, Gentex unveils a slim profile, carbon fiber, electrochromic automatic dimming rearview mirror for the custom car market, to be sold through Ringbrothers starting in the first quarter of 2026 (Product Related Announcements).
Gentex provides production guidance tied to global light vehicle output, projecting 76.09 million units in 2025 and 74.84 million units in 2026, which frames management's volume expectations for the medium term (Corporate Guidance).
Gentex reports continued share repurchase activity. The company completed a 25 million share buyback authorized in 2021 and an additional 353,017 share tranche in 2025, indicating ongoing capital return to shareholders (Buyback Tranche Updates).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has edged down slightly from approximately $30.06 to $29.81 per share, reflecting a modestly more conservative intrinsic value assessment.
The discount rate has decreased slightly from about 8.20 percent to 8.10 percent, implying a marginally lower required return and risk premium in the updated model.
Revenue growth has remained effectively unchanged at roughly 7.8 percent, signaling stable top line growth assumptions over the forecast horizon.
The net profit margin is essentially flat at around 18.1 percent, indicating no material change to long term profitability expectations.
The future P/E multiple has eased modestly from about 13.45x to 13.30x, pointing to a slightly lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Expansion into new markets and advanced technologies positions Gentex for growth, diversification, and reduced dependence on the automotive sector.
Ongoing operational improvements and capital return strategies are likely to drive enhanced profitability and shareholder value.
Gentex faces major challenges from decontenting in China, margin pressure, reliance on mirrors, acquisition risks, and vulnerable supply chains, threatening growth and profitability.

Catalysts

About Gentex

Designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and supplies digital vision, connected car, dimmable glass, and fire protection products in the United States, China, Germany, Japan, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Gentex is experiencing robust growth in Full Display Mirror and other advanced feature content, with multiple new nameplate launches and rising OEM take rates, positioning the company to capitalize on the accelerating adoption of in-cabin electronic vision and safety systems-likely to drive higher average selling prices and future revenue growth.
The VOXX acquisition expands Gentex's addressable markets into premium audio, biometrics, and smart home automation, providing new, diversified revenue streams and operational synergies that should support earnings growth and reduce cyclicality tied to the automotive sector.
Strong and sustained progress on margin improvement initiatives-including manufacturing automation, supply base savings, and product mix optimization-continues to materially lift gross and operating margins; further upside is likely as integration and cost synergies from VOXX are realized over the next 12–24 months.
Gentex is investing heavily in next-generation technologies such as large area dimmable devices and advanced driver monitoring systems, both of which are closely aligned with the growing demand for vehicle electrification, safety, and in-cabin monitoring, representing significant medium-term growth drivers for revenue and profitability.
High levels of recurring share repurchases (plus a new 18% authorization) demonstrate management's ongoing commitment to capital return and will structurally boost earnings per share over time, especially as margin expansion compounds the bottom-line benefit.

Gentex Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Gentex's revenue will grow by 7.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 16.6% today to 17.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $529.5 million (and earnings per share of $2.7) by about September 2028, up from $394.8 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 15.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Auto Components industry at 17.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 3.49% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.73%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Gentex Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Gentex faces significant long-term risk from the structural decontenting trend in the China automotive market, as local OEM profitability pressures are causing the removal of advanced features-including Gentex's core products-resulting in sharply lower sales projections and the possibility of further revenue contraction in that critical growth region beyond 2025.
Increasing tariffs and global trade uncertainty, especially with China, have already reduced sales, forced customers to switch to local suppliers, or drop Gentex products altogether; any prolonged or escalating trade barriers will further erode Gentex's international revenue base and compress margins due to unreimbursed tariff costs.
Gentex remains heavily reliant on the automotive mirror business, and persistent OEM cost focus (e.g., decontenting and negative margin pressure) raises the risk of ongoing product cannibalization or obsolescence from evolving EV platforms and ADAS/adaptive digital camera systems, threatening both future revenue and long-term net margin sustainability.
The VOXX acquisition brings increased business complexity, operational integration risks, and currently runs at breakeven with substantially lower margins; if operational synergies do not materialize as planned or industry conditions worsen, VOXX could dilute Gentex's consolidated profit margins and hinder anticipated earnings growth.
Gentex's supply chains expose the company to rare earth and critical materials sourcing risk, especially for coatings and premium audio magnets reliant on China; disruption or further regulation in these supply chains could increase input costs, jeopardize manufacturing continuity, and pressure both profitability and future earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $30.556 for Gentex based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $42.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $24.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.0 billion, earnings will come to $529.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
Given the current share price of $28.21, the analyst price target of $30.56 is 7.7% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

GNTX: Robust Auto Demand And Solid Sales Will Drive Continued Share Outperformance