Advancing 5G Leadership And ESG Efforts Will Boost Future Market Reach

Key Takeaways

• Expanding 5G and ICT services will drive revenue growth and enhance profitability through higher ARPU and high-margin offerings.
  
• Strengthening international ventures and ESG initiatives enhances market reach and investor appeal, potentially boosting revenue and stock value.
  
• Rising operational costs and declining traditional service revenues challenge Chunghwa Telecom's profitability, though strategic focus on high-margin products may affect revenue opportunities.

Catalysts

Provides telecommunication services in Taiwan and internationally.

• Chunghwa Telecom is expanding its 5G market leadership in Taiwan, with postpaid subscriber growth, which is expected to drive increased mobile service revenue and ARPU as more customers transition to higher-priced 5G plans. This is likely to contribute positively to overall revenue growth.
  
• The company’s strategic shift towards high-margin ICT services, including emerging technologies and applications, is expected to boost revenue and drive profitability due to higher-margin offerings, enhancing net income and operating margins.
  
• Strengthening international business operations, including new ventures in Europe and participation in global alliances like the IoT World Alliance, is anticipated to expand Chunghwa Telecom's market reach and contribute to international revenue growth, subsequently impacting earnings positively.
  
• The ongoing transition to advanced technology solutions, such as liquid-cooling for AI servers and launching innovative projects like the 5G private network backpack, positions Chunghwa Telecom at the forefront of tech advancements. This innovative approach is likely to enhance operational efficiencies and improve net margins over time.
  
• The company’s commitment to ESG initiatives, including achieving net-zero emissions ahead of global timelines, positions it attractively for sustainability-conscious investors. This could lead to long-term cost savings and potentially improve investor perception, positively impacting stock value and future earnings.

Chunghwa Telecom Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Chunghwa Telecom's revenue will grow by 1.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 16.1% today to 16.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach NT$40.1 billion (and earnings per share of NT$5.27) by about December 2027, up from NT$36.5 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 26.6x on those 2027 earnings, up from 26.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Telecom industry at 19.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.67% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 4.93%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Chunghwa Telecom Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company faces increased operational costs, particularly due to higher manpower expenses and electricity costs, which could impact net income and overall profitability.
  
• Declining revenue from traditional mobile voice and fixed line services, as seen in the enterprise segment, could offset growth in newer technologies and impact net margins negatively.
  
• One-time expenses like the broadcast rights for the Paris Olympic Games have temporarily reduced profit, which may continue if similar strategic investments are not offset by revenue, affecting earnings.
  
• Although revenues are growing, the decrease in net income from operations due to costs and expenses reflects challenges in converting revenue growth into profit, impacting earnings.
  
• The strategy to focus more on high-margin products while discontinuing low-margin offerings may limit revenue generation opportunities in certain segments, potentially affecting revenue growth projections.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of NT$121.33 for Chunghwa Telecom based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of NT$130.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just NT$108.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be NT$239.1 billion, earnings will come to NT$40.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 26.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 4.9%.
• Given the current share price of NT$123.5, the analyst's price target of NT$121.33 is 1.8% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.