Digital Expansion And Prudent Risk Management Will Support Earnings Stability In Turkish Banking

Key Takeaways

• Isbank's selective lending strategy in SMEs and export finance supports sustained loan growth and positive revenue impact.
  
• Expansion in digital services with strong asset quality and ESG-related funding optimizes earnings stability and maintains low NPL ratios.
  
• Rising funding costs, inflation, and non-performing loans threaten profitability through delayed margin recovery and increased provisioning and risk-related expenses.

Catalysts

Provides various banking products and services in Turkey.

• Isbank anticipates improved net interest margin (NIM) in 2025, driven by expected monetary easing and potential rate cuts, which will favorably impact interest income.
  
• The bank’s robust selective lending strategy, especially focused on SME and export finance, is expected to sustain loan growth and positively influence revenue streams.
  
• Isbank’s expansion in digital services and a growing base of digital customers are anticipated to enhance fee income, driving higher non-interest revenue.
  
• Continued strong asset quality and prudent risk management, despite a high-interest environment, will help maintain low NPL ratios, supporting net margins.
  
• The diversified funding strategy, with significant ESG-related funding and strong FX liquidity, positions Isbank to efficiently manage costs and optimize earnings stability.

Türkiye Is Bankasi Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Türkiye Is Bankasi's revenue will grow by 23.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 23.8% today to 39.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach TRY 175.9 billion (and earnings per share of TRY 8.18) by about December 2027, up from TRY 55.2 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 5.0x on those 2027 earnings, down from 6.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Banks industry at 12.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 4.91% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 32.08%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Türkiye Is Bankasi Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The ongoing pressure on funding costs, due to the termination of right-way swap operations with the CBRT and macroprudential measures, could delay margin recovery and impact net interest margins, potentially affecting profitability.
  
• The persistent high inflation rates, with annual inflation anticipated around 43%, could erode consumer purchasing power and impact revenue growth through decreased consumption expenditures.
  
• The delayed rate cut expectations, with the expected monetary easing pushed to 2025, imply that the bank's net interest margin might not reach projected levels, thereby negatively affecting earnings.
  
• Increasing non-performing loan (NPL) inflows, particularly in the credit card segment, in a high-interest environment could lead to higher provisioning costs and adversely impact net margins.
  
• The elevated cost of risk, anticipating an increase to around 150 basis points in 2025, signals potential asset quality deterioration, which can pressure net earnings and future profitability.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of TRY 17.73 for Türkiye Is Bankasi based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of TRY 20.6, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just TRY 14.7.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be TRY 441.5 billion, earnings will come to TRY 175.9 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 5.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 32.1%.
• Given the current share price of TRY 13.26, the analyst's price target of TRY 17.73 is 25.2% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.