Global Offshore Wind Market Expansion Will Secure Fleet Leadership

Key Takeaways

• Modern, specialized fleet and global market diversification position Cadeler for sustained revenue growth, high vessel utilization, and reduced geographic risk.
  
• Expansion into services and new markets, supported by strong policy momentum and newbuild execution, drives stable margins and long-term earnings visibility.
  
• Reliance on one-off termination fees, project delays, and geographic concentration expose Cadeler to unpredictable revenues, utilization risks, and margin pressures despite ongoing fleet expansion.

Catalysts

Engages in offshore wind farm installation, operations, and maintenance services in Denmark.

• Structural undersupply of advanced wind turbine installation and foundation vessels toward the end of the decade, combined with ongoing upscaling of turbines and deepwater project complexity, creates strong pricing power and long-term visibility for Cadeler's modern fleet, underpinning higher vessel dayrates, improved utilization, and revenue growth.
  
• Global expansion and diversification of offshore wind markets-especially in early-stage geographies such as the Asia-Pacific and the US-are expanding Cadeler's addressable market and backlog pipeline, supporting sustained top-line growth and mitigating geographic concentration risk.
  
• Increasing client demand for O&M (operations and maintenance) services and Cadeler's proactive expansion via the Nexra service suite unlock new high-margin revenue streams, stabilizing earnings and supporting margin expansion as the installed base of global offshore wind grows.
  
• Accelerating global decarbonization targets, greater government policy clarity, and improved auction structures are expected to drive a renewed cycle of final investment decisions in core and new offshore wind markets, supporting long-term customer demand and backlog resilience-positively impacting both revenue and EBITDA visibility.
  
• Successful, on-time and on-budget delivery of newbuild vessels, with tailored upgrades for operational efficiency and compliance in new markets, positions Cadeler ahead of industry peers to capture the premium segment; this lowers project execution risk and supports margin stability over time.

Cadeler Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Cadeler's revenue will grow by 30.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 50.0% today to 39.3% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €406.6 million (and earnings per share of €1.15) by about August 2028, up from €232.6 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as €527 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 7.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from 6.9x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the NO Construction industry at 16.6x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.86% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.24%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Cadeler Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Cadeler's backlog and recent growth are significantly boosted by termination fees from canceled or delayed projects (e.g., Hornsea 4), which are one-off payments; recurring reliance on such fees is unsustainable and a reduction in project pipeline or further delays could decrease future revenue and EBITDA visibility.
  
• Despite robust fleet expansion, management acknowledges 2027–2028 will be more challenging than previously expected due to recalibrated government auction timelines and utility project delays, posing risks to vessel utilization and top-line growth during these years.
  
• The capital-intensive nature of building and acquiring new vessels, combined with ongoing upgrades for acquired assets (e.g., Wind Keeper), puts pressure on Cadeler's net margins and return on invested capital, especially if project delays lead to periods of underutilization.
  
• The heavy weighting of Cadeler's backlog toward Europe and a limited presence in emerging markets expose the company to geographic concentration risks; setbacks or further recalibrations in European renewable policy or auctions could disproportionately reduce revenue and earnings.
  
• Rising regulatory and client expectations for decarbonization and vessel efficiency may require expensive retrofits or operational changes for legacy vessels, potentially increasing SG&A and OpEx, thereby impacting long-term margins if not managed efficiently.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of NOK84.028 for Cadeler based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €1.0 billion, earnings will come to €406.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of NOK53.85, the analyst price target of NOK84.03 is 35.9% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.