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Sunshine Powers More Than Plants-Samaiden

HO
HoomakaukauNot Invested
Community Contributor

Published

October 24 2024

Updated

October 25 2024

Narratives are currently in beta

Renewable Energy in Malaysia and ASEAN Region

Catalysts

1.     Samaiden (KLSE: 0223) is an engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) company of solar photovoltaic systems and power plants in Malaysia.

2.     A clean energies solution provider, Samaiden is involved in solar photovoltaic systems, biomass and biogas systems, battery energy storage systems (BESS), mini hydro, and waste-to-energy solutions.

3.     The Malaysian Budget 2025 is set to nurture the renewable energy sector, with a continuation of funding through 2026, in the amount of RM1 billion, via the Green Technology Financing Scheme. An additional RM300 million from the National Energy Transition Fund is intended to accelerate Malaysia’s energy landscape transformation.

4.     On the consumer side, the Net Energy Metering program will continue through June 2025, incentivizing adoption of energy-efficient electrical equipment via e-rebates totalling RM70 million.

Industry Tailwinds

1.     Samaiden completed large-scale solar projects in the commercial and industrial sectors

2.     Samaiden continues projects such as implementation of solar streetlights, BESS and smart grid technologies

3.     A year-over-year order book spillover and prospect pipeline ensure positive growth

Industry Headwinds

1.     Supply chain disruptions negatively impact project completion and maintenance of systems.

Financial Metrics-Revenue and EPS

YTD 2024 Revenue- RM227.20 mm

YTD 2024 EPS-RM3.91

Assumptions

Revenue in 5 years will be RM700 mm, given the current trajectory of Samaiden’s growth.

Earnings in 5 years will be RM49 mm, assuming minor negative impacts.

Risks

A reduction of large-scale solar projects by the government will be a negative impact. To hedge this possibility, increasing the regional project book with similar MW requirements. Samaiden’s leadership and team continue to pursue growth within the various renewable energy solution divisions, within Malaysia and the ASEAN region.

Valuation

3-Year Outlook

·       Revenue for Samaiden in 3 years will be RM447 mm

·       Earnings for Samaiden in 3 years will be RM31 mm

5-Year Outlook

·       Revenue for Samaiden in 3 years will be RM700 mm

·       Earnings for Samaiden in 3 years will be RM49 mm

10-Year Outlook

·       Revenue for Samaiden in 3 years will be RM2,167 mm

·       Earnings for Samaiden in 3 years will be RM63mm

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Disclaimer

The user Hoomakaukau holds no position in KLSE:SAMAIDEN. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value
RM 1.8
35.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Hoomakaukau's Fair Value
Future estimation in
PastFuture0100m200m300m400m500m600m700m20172019202120232024202520272029Revenue RM 701.9mEarnings RM 49.6m
% p.a.
Decrease
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Current revenue growth rate
25.31%
Construction revenue growth rate
0.26%
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