OLED Shift Will Redefine Global Display Markets

Key Takeaways

• Strategic shift to OLED technology, operational efficiencies, and expansion into automotive and premium segments drive higher margins and long-term earnings growth.
  
• Technological leadership in advanced displays and cost innovation position the company to benefit from rising demand for high-performance, energy-efficient screens across multiple end-markets.
  
• Heavy dependence on OLED, high investment needs, rising competition, macroeconomic volatility, and weak end-market demand threaten revenue growth, profitability, and financial stability.

Catalysts

Engages in the manufacture and sale of thin-film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) and organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technology-based display panels in Korea, China, rest of Asia, the Americas, Poland, and rest of Europe.

• The company's accelerated pivot from the commoditized LCD TV segment toward an OLED-centric product mix has structurally driven higher ASPs (average selling prices) per unit and improved gross margins; continued R&D leadership and capacity investments in advanced OLED technologies are expected to further enhance long-term profitability and support earnings growth.
  
• Growing adoption of high-end visual experiences-including premium OLED TVs, monitors (especially gaming), and IT devices-positions LG Display to capitalize on the rising consumer preference for larger, higher-resolution, and energy-efficient screens; this supports further revenue expansion and sustained margin improvements.
  
• Expansion in automotive and commercial segments, with rising content per vehicle and diversified display applications (ultra-large, high-res, low-power, and reliable panels), offer new, higher-margin revenue streams that reduce cyclicality and bolster total company revenue and margin stability over time.
  
• Momentum in small and medium OLED panel shipments for smartphones and tablets-supported by LG Display's technological differentiation in tandem OLED and low-power, high-brightness solutions-enables the company to address growth areas driven by proliferation of connected and smart devices, supporting top-line growth and higher utilization rates.
  
• Ongoing cost innovation, operational efficiency gains, and debt reduction-enabled by business restructuring, strategic divestitures (e.g., Guangzhou LCD plant), and focused capital expenditures-are expected to enhance net margins, free cash flow, and financial flexibility, positioning LG Display for sustained improvement in earnings quality.

LG Display Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming LG Display's revenue will decrease by 0.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -2.5% today to 3.9% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₩1035.9 billion (and earnings per share of ₩1766.2) by about July 2028, up from ₩-669.8 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting ₩1627.0 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting ₩421.7 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 7.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -7.9x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Electronic industry at 14.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

LG Display Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• High reliance on the OLED segment-despite growth, the company's increasing concentration in OLED panels (now 56% of revenue) exposes it to the risk of underperformance if alternative display technologies (e.g., microLED or quantum dot) gain commercial traction or if OLED market demand falters, potentially impacting long-term revenue growth and market share.
  
• Ongoing capital expenditure requirements-with planned investments of ₩1.26 trillion over the next two years in OLED technology and continued CapEx similar to last year (low ₩2 trillion range), there is continued strain on free cash flow and potential increases in debt, which could constrain earnings and financial flexibility if returns on investment fall short.
  
• Intensifying competition from low-cost Chinese rivals-although the company exited the LCD TV business due to loss of competitive advantage, aggressive expansion by Chinese panel makers (e.g., BOE) in both OLED and high-end LCD could put pressure on ASPs and net margins, especially in price-sensitive and commoditizing segments.
  
• Foreign exchange rate & trade policy volatility-persistent macro headwinds, including a stronger Korean won and ongoing or escalating global tariff uncertainties, have already led to quarterly sales declines and operating losses, and these factors could continue to erode profitability and earnings consistency in the long term.
  
• Slower or volatile demand in end markets-management flagged sluggish global IT demand and seasonality as headwinds; a prolonged stagnation or further decline in demand for TVs, monitors, tablets, and smartphones (especially in developed markets) could hinder top-line growth and limit recovery in operating margins.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₩11435.0 for LG Display based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ₩17000.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ₩6500.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be ₩26274.3 billion, earnings will come to ₩1035.9 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.8%.
  
• Given the current share price of ₩10520.0, the analyst price target of ₩11435.0 is 8.0% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.