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2914: Profit Margin Gains And Dividend Outlook Will Support Measured Performance

Published
07 Nov 24
Updated
02 Nov 25
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
32.1%
7D
3.4%

Author's Valuation

JP¥5.1k8.8% overvalued intrinsic discount

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 02 Nov 25

Fair value Increased 2.51%

Analysts have raised their price target for Japan Tobacco from ¥4,974 to ¥5,099, citing slightly improved profit margin forecasts even though the outlook for revenue growth remains tempered. What's in the News Japan Tobacco revised its year-end 2025 dividend guidance and increased the expected cash dividend to JPY 130.00 per share from the previously expected JPY 104.00 per share (Key Developments).

Shared on 19 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 1.10%

Reduced-risk Offerings And International Markets Will Secure Long-Term Success

Narrative Update on Japan Tobacco: Analyst Price Target Revision Analysts have raised their price target for Japan Tobacco from ¥4,920 to ¥4,974. They cite modest improvements in projected revenue growth and a slightly lower discount rate as key factors in the adjustment.

Shared on 05 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 2.25%

Reduced-risk Offerings And International Markets Will Secure Long-Term Success

Japan Tobacco's analyst price target has risen from ¥4,811.67 to ¥4,920.00. This reflects modest improvements in revenue growth and profit margin forecasts, with analysts highlighting a stable global nicotine market outlook.

Shared on 20 Sep 25

Fair value Increased 1.14%

Reduced-risk Offerings And International Markets Will Secure Long-Term Success

Japan Tobacco's consensus price target saw a marginal increase to ¥4,812, as revenue growth and net profit margin forecasts remained effectively stable. What's in the News Announced increased second quarter dividend to JPY 104.00 per share from JPY 97.00, and raised year-end dividend guidance to JPY 104.00 per share.

Shared on 05 Sep 25

Reduced-risk Offerings And International Markets Will Secure Long-Term Success

With both the discount rate and future P/E ratio for Japan Tobacco showing only marginal changes, analysts have kept their consensus price target steady at ¥4758. What's in the News Increased second quarter dividend to JPY 104.00 per share, up from JPY 97.00 last year; year-end dividend guidance also raised to JPY 104.00 per share.

Shared on 01 May 25

Fair value Increased 1.33%

Reduced-risk Offerings And International Markets Will Secure Long-Term Success

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 0.11%

Expansion Into US And RRP Markets Will Strengthen Future Prospects

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 17 Apr 25

Expansion Into US And RRP Markets Will Strengthen Future Prospects

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Expansion Into US And RRP Markets Will Strengthen Future Prospects

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased discount rate from 5.1% to 5.6%.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 3.51%

Expansion Into US And RRP Markets Will Strengthen Future Prospects

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased shares outstanding growth rate from 0.0% to 0.0%.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 0.20%

Expansion Into US And RRP Markets Will Strengthen Future Prospects

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 0.30%

Expansion Into US And RRP Markets Will Strengthen Future Prospects

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased revenue growth from 4.5% to 5.0%.

Shared on 12 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 2.23%

Expansion Into US And RRP Markets Will Strengthen Future Prospects

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased shares outstanding growth rate from -0.0% to 0.0%.