Anima Integration Will Threaten Financial Stability With Potential Revenue Disruptions

Key Takeaways

• The strategic partnership with Anima is poised to drive growth in revenue and commission income by integrating asset management and life insurance products.
  
• Successful de-risking and cost containment strategies are expected to enhance net margins, supporting dividend growth and improved earnings per share.
  
• The integration of Anima could disrupt Banco BPM's revenues, capital buffers, and management focus, while market and asset challenges threaten financial stability.

Catalysts

Provides banking and financial products and services to individual, business, and corporate customers in Italy.

• The acquisition of Anima is expected to enhance Banco BPM's business model by creating a comprehensive product offering in life insurance and asset management, which could lead to increased revenue and growth in core commission and stakeholder participation.
  
• The strategic partnership with Anima and the anticipated synergies from integrating asset management with life insurance product offerings are likely to boost Banco BPM’s earnings by expanding commission income sources.
  
• Banco BPM is well ahead of its de-risking plan, which involves disposing of non-performing exposures (NPEs) and non-instrumental real estate assets, actions expected to improve net margins by reducing costs and credit risks.
  
• Increased operational efficiencies through cost containment and strategic shifts in the portfolio, like switching accounts and optimizing current account rates, are expected to enhance future earnings.
  
• Banco BPM's strong capital position and the expected positive impact of ongoing and future transactions are likely to support future dividend growth and improve the EPS, potentially affecting net margins favorably.

Banco BPM Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Banco BPM's revenue will grow by 3.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 40.3% today to 26.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €1.5 billion (and earnings per share of €0.97) by about December 2027, down from €2.0 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €1.6 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €1.2 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 10.7x on those 2027 earnings, up from 5.8x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Banks industry at 13.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.58% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.97%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Banco BPM Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The integration of Anima, which is a large independent asset manager, into Banco BPM could face challenges, as existing distribution partners might not be committed to exclusive long-term contracts, potentially leading to revenue instability from asset management fees.
  
• The transaction's expected capital impact of 30 basis points might underestimate any unforeseen capital needs, which could affect Banco BPM’s capital buffers and leverage ratios.
  
• The move to integrate Anima could divert focus from Banco BPM’s banking operations, leading to potential dilution of management resources, which may impact earnings if core banking operations do not perform as anticipated.
  
• Real estate sales at a loss and the reduction of non-instrumental real estate assets may indicate challenges Banco BPM faces in managing asset write-downs, which could negatively affect net margins and overall financial stability.
  
• Market risks associated with interest rate volatility could create adverse effects on the net interest income and trading profits, especially if rate decreases result in diminished earnings contribution from these areas.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €7.8 for Banco BPM based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €8.6, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €7.09.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be €5.6 billion, earnings will come to €1.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 10.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.0%.
• Given the current share price of €7.77, the analyst's price target of €7.8 is 0.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.