Digital Transformation And B2B Events Will Unlock Future Value

Key Takeaways

• Digital and recurring subscription services, alongside high-value branded events, are boosting Informa's margins, cash flow stability, and long-term earnings visibility.
  
• Strong industry demand, high customer retention, and strategic acquisitions enable operational efficiency and position the company for sustained growth and valuation uplift.
  
• Structural weaknesses in digital, regional, and event strategies, plus integration and reliance on non-recurring revenues, threaten Informa's earnings stability and long-term growth prospects.

Catalysts

Operates as an international events, digital services, and academic research company in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North America, China, and internationally.

• The accelerating shift towards digitization and data analytics in business decision-making is increasing demand for Informa's digital content, market intelligence, and analytics services-evidenced by measurable benefits from first-party data and growing traction in new digital-based products-which supports higher-margin digital subscription revenues and enhances net margin and earnings visibility.
  
• Robust growth across Informa's B2B events portfolio, driven by both recurring increases in attendee/exhibitor pricing and the expansion of high-value branded events in structurally attractive, global sectors (e.g., fintech, healthcare, food, pharma), positions the company to consistently exceed GDP-based revenue growth and leverage operational efficiency for margin expansion.
  
• Deepening regulatory complexity and industry-specific requirements are leading companies to place greater value on authoritative, specialized knowledge and in-person networking-reflected in strong forward bookings, high customer retention, and visible long-term demand pipelines for both events and content business lines-all of which underpin earnings resilience.
  
• Expansion of Informa's proprietary content databases (including academic publishing and data licensing) is increasing the proportion of resilient, recurring revenues, as seen in strong subscription renewal rates and the ramp in data licensing contracts, thereby supporting stable and predictable long-term cash flow and earnings.
  
• The company's disciplined integration of acquisitions and focus on operational foundations, along with a conservative balance sheet and ongoing share buybacks, enable Informa to capitalize on industry consolidation and invest in high-growth verticals, translating into sustained EPS growth and the potential for structural re-rating in its valuation.

Informa Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Informa's revenue will grow by 7.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.4% today to 13.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach £588.8 million (and earnings per share of £0.47) by about July 2028, up from £297.7 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting £648 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting £502.7 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.7x on those 2028 earnings, down from 37.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Media industry at 12.0x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.71% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.38%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Informa Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The increasing commoditization and pricing pressure within the lead generation business, particularly at Informa TechTarget, could threaten long-term net margin expansion and earnings growth-especially as digital marketing alternatives become more widely adopted and AI-driven buyer behavior disrupts traditional demand generation models.
  
• Structural underperformance in the Chinese market, with growth rates below Informa's average and potential further impact from persistent geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S./China tariffs), could reduce revenue growth and earnings from a key global region.
  
• The heavy reliance on "yield management" and premium pricing strategies, coupled with an industry-wide trend toward hybrid/virtual event formats, risks exposing Informa to competition from lower-cost digital alternatives and declining physical event participation, threatening core revenues and net margins.
  
• Non-recurring data licensing agreements in the academic business are bolstering top-line growth but may not provide stable, recurring revenue, leading to potential volatility in segment earnings and a risk of overestimating long-term growth sustainability if these deals do not recur.
  
• Ongoing integration and execution challenges-particularly in the newer TechTarget acquisition-risk distraction, underperformance, and lost market share to more digitally mature competitors, jeopardizing long-term revenue growth and margin improvement if not addressed quickly.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of £9.628 for Informa based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be £4.4 billion, earnings will come to £588.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.4%.
  
• Given the current share price of £8.67, the analyst price target of £9.63 is 10.0% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.