Digital Upskilling And AI Products Will Drive Long Term Marketing And Media Expansion

Catalysts

About Brave Bison Group

Brave Bison Group is a marketing and technology company that provides performance media, social, consultancy and skills-based training solutions to global brands.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Scaling the newly created skills and learning division around MiniMBA positions Brave Bison to benefit from rising global demand for continuous professional upskilling in marketing, supporting higher margin, recurring revenue growth.
• Ongoing shift of advertising budgets into digital, social and influencer channels, where Brave Bison is already embedded with blue chip brands and platforms, provides a structural tailwind for sustained organic revenue expansion.
• Commercialisation of proprietary AI products such as AudienceGPT and AdStudio should deepen client relationships and improve campaign performance, driving higher performance fees and supporting improved net margins over time.
• Disciplined buy and build, with a focus on EPS accretion and rapid integration of acquisitions such as MTM, ENGAGE and The Fifth, creates operating leverage that can expand EBITDA and earnings faster than headline revenue.
• Data and insight-led consultancy through MTM, including assets such as the Three Reasons forecasting model and developer research capabilities, aligns Brave Bison with long-term growth in streaming and cloud ecosystems, underpinning higher quality earnings and pricing power.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Brave Bison Group's revenue will grow by 15.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.4% today to 32.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach £17.5 million (and earnings per share of £0.22) by about December 2028, up from £1.2 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 63.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Interactive Media and Services industry at 21.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.23% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.53%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• The strategy depends heavily on acquisitions in fragmented, competitive markets, and recent deals like ENGAGE and The Fifth were loss making at purchase. If integration or cross selling synergies are slower or smaller than planned, acquisition and restructuring costs could keep rising faster than savings, putting sustained pressure on net margins and earnings growth.
• Brave Bison is leaning into fast evolving AI tools such as AudienceGPT and AdStudio to differentiate its performance offering. However, large agency networks and specialist AI vendors with deeper resources could out innovate or commoditise similar capabilities, which would erode pricing power and limit long term revenue growth and operating margin expansion.
• The new skills and learning division, anchored by MiniMBA, relies on a relatively small annual learner base and on the personal brand and network of industry figures such as Mark Ritson. If demand for premium marketing training softens in an economic downturn or key talent leaves, the expected high margin, recurring revenue stream may underperform and drag on group earnings.
• The company has materially increased intangible assets, contingent consideration and debt to fund growth. In a scenario where digital advertising budgets slow or major clients switch agencies, any shortfall in cash generation or underperformance of acquired brands could require impairments and constrain further investment, weakening the balance sheet and diluting future earnings per share.
• Brave Bison operates in cyclical sectors such as sports media, streaming and digital advertising. While recent events like the U.S. Open and Ryder Cup boosted trading, a normalization of sports rights economics, regulatory changes around data usage or a shift in spend toward in house teams could cap long term revenue growth and limit the improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins and net profit.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of £1.52 for Brave Bison Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be £54.6 million, earnings will come to £17.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.5%.
  
• Given the current share price of £0.73, the analyst price target of £1.52 is 51.8% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.