Expanding Cross-Border Payments Will Unlock New Markets

Key Takeaways

• Expanding networks and focusing on money movement capabilities should boost revenue growth and improve net margins by enhancing payment efficiency.
  
• Strategic positioning in mobile payments and local systems allows Boku to capitalize on macro trends and achieve significant revenue growth.
  
• Boku's regulatory investments and market expansion efforts face execution and currency risks, potentially impacting margins and earnings if revenue targets are not met.

Catalysts

Provides local payment solutions for merchants in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

• Boku is expanding its global network of localized payment methods, adding new connectivity in large markets such as Nigeria, India, Poland, and Italy, increasing their potential reach and revenue streams. This expansion is expected to significantly drive future revenue growth.
  
• The company's focus on building out its money movement capabilities, including real-time foreign exchange and cross-border payments, is expected to enhance its value proposition to global merchants. This will likely improve net margins by increasing payment efficiency and reducing transaction costs.
  
• With the growth of mobile payment adoption and the move by central banks towards local payment systems, Boku is strategically positioned to capitalize on these macro trends. This market positioning is expected to lead to increased earnings as they tap into the larger $10 trillion addressable market.
  
• Boku's investment in platform efficiency through automation and improved operational scalability is anticipated to lead to margin expansion over time. This operational improvement is aimed at increasing net margins by reducing costs per transaction.
  
• The company's strategic shift to broaden its merchant base by opening its network to more merchants and potentially partnering for distribution is expected to elevate Boku’s revenue trajectory. This expansion is likely to bring about significant organic revenue growth by broadening the customer base and tapping into new market segments.

Boku Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Boku's revenue will grow by 19.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.8% today to 15.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $27.0 million (and earnings per share of $0.09) by about April 2028, up from $3.8 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $32.3 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $23.7 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 41.4x on those 2028 earnings, down from 159.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Diversified Financial industry at 12.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.23% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.36%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Boku Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Boku's strategic investments in expanding regulatory reach and enhancing their platform capabilities require significant capital, potentially affecting net margins if these investments don't result in anticipated revenue growth.
  
• The company's expansion into new markets such as India and Brazil presents execution risks, particularly given varying regulatory environments, which could impact the revenue targets due to delays or compliance issues.
  
• A significant increase in share-based payment expenses due to staff growth may dilute earnings if not offset by corresponding revenue gains.
  
• Exposure to currency exchange fluctuations and FX losses, as mentioned in the financial results, can impact net profits and require effective treasury management strategies.
  
• The focus on broadening their merchant base and entering new markets may dilute company resources and focus, potentially impacting operational efficiencies and adjusted EBITDA margins if not managed carefully.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of £2.473 for Boku based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of £3.08, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just £1.71.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $170.8 million, earnings will come to $27.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 41.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.
• Given the current share price of £1.54, the analyst price target of £2.47 is 37.7% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.