Dispersed Platform Model And AI Adoption Will Reshape Mid Market Legal Services

Catalysts

About Keystone Law Group

Keystone Law Group operates a technology enabled, dispersed platform law firm providing full service legal advice to corporates and high net worth clients in the U.K. mid market.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• The continued shift of experienced lawyers away from traditional partnerships towards flexible, higher share of fees models positions Keystone to capture a larger share of a GBP 12 billion addressable market, supporting sustained double digit revenue growth and higher revenue per principal.
• Ongoing investment in proprietary technology and AI tools such as Keybot and an AI enabled operating manual should structurally lower overheads, improving operational efficiency and supporting stable or rising net margins despite wage and license cost inflation.
• Increasing client acceptance of dispersed, tech enabled legal service delivery, combined with Keystone’s now mainstream brand and imminent marketing refresh, should deepen penetration of higher value work and cross referrals, underpinning growth in fee rates and earnings.
• The scalable, asset light platform and debt free balance sheet, with strong cash conversion above 100 percent, enable continued investment in recruitment and IT without equity dilution, creating operating leverage that is likely to enhance earnings growth relative to revenue.
• A more balanced legal recruitment market, with lower competitive intensity than the immediate post pandemic period, improves Keystone’s ability to attract high calibre principals with established books of business, which should accelerate top line growth and support resilient dividend paying capacity.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Keystone Law Group's revenue will grow by 5.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 9.1% today to 8.3% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach £10.3 million (and earnings per share of £0.31) by about December 2028, up from £9.7 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 31.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 20.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Professional Services industry at 19.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.1% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.3%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• If the recruitment market tightens again and high caliber principals have more lucrative alternatives, Keystone may struggle to sustain recent lawyer growth and its dispersed model could lose some appeal. This would slow revenue growth and reduce operating leverage driven earnings growth.
• As more traditional firms and newer entrants invest in their own technology enabled and dispersed platforms, Keystone’s first mover advantage may erode over time. This could pressure its ability to win premium clients and potentially cap revenue per principal and overall margins.
• Rapid adoption of AI tools across the legal sector could commoditise routine work more quickly than Keystone can move its offering further up the value chain. This would put downward pressure on fee rates, revenue growth and gross profit margins.
• Rising wage inflation, higher software license fees and ongoing IT investment including cloud migration and AI projects may continue to grow overheads faster than turnover. This would squeeze adjusted PBIT margins and limit earnings growth despite healthy top line expansion.
• A sustained decline in U.K. interest rates would reduce the unusually high net interest income that currently boosts adjusted PBT. Even if operating performance is stable, overall earnings growth could slow or reverse as this ancillary income stream normalises.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of £8.38 for Keystone Law Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of £9.7, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just £6.7.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be £124.1 million, earnings will come to £10.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 31.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
  
• Given the current share price of £6.14, the analyst price target of £8.38 is 26.7% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.