15 GW Solar Capacity In Spain Will Drive Future Success

Key Takeaways

• Diversification into renewable real estate and data centers is a major growth catalyst, expected to boost revenue and expand margins.
  
• Increased solar capacity and hybridization will enhance energy production, driving revenue growth and improving net margins.
  
• Government tax impact on margins, CapEx reliance, market volatility, and expansion risks threaten Solaria's financial stability and future growth prospects.

Catalysts

Generates solar photovoltaic energy.

• Solaria's diversification into real estate associated with renewables, Generia, and the data center business is expected to be a significant catalyst for future growth, supporting increased revenue and expanding margins over time.
  
• The company is constructing more than 1.5 GW of solar capacity in Spain, aiming to significantly increase its operational capacity in the short term. This increased capacity is likely to boost revenue and improve earnings through economies of scale.
  
• Solaria's strategy of hybridization with wind and adding battery storage will enhance its energy production capabilities, allowing for higher energy sale volumes and potentially improving net margins due to better load balancing and supply reliability.
  
• The development of the Generia business and securing additional financing through equity and debt will accelerate growth, which is expected to materially contribute to the company's revenue and earnings over the next three years.
  
• The growth of the data center industry in Spain and Solaria's strategic position as a power and land supplier is anticipated to generate substantial cash flow, which could increase the company’s earnings and enhance shareholder value through higher cash generation and strategic partnerships.

Solaria Energía y Medio Ambiente Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Solaria Energía y Medio Ambiente's revenue will grow by 18.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 42.1% today to 33.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €117.7 million (and earnings per share of €0.9) by about May 2028, up from €88.6 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €145 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €91.8 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from 9.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Renewable Energy industry at 15.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.74%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Solaria Energía y Medio Ambiente Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The introduction of a new tax by the government, which accounts for 7% of revenues, has significantly impacted operating expenses and is projected to have even more of an impact next year, reducing net margins.
  
• The reliance on project finance to cover CapEx, coupled with maintaining a relatively low cash position, presents a financial risk, particularly if economic conditions tighten or interest rates rise, which could affect earnings stability.
  
• The volatility of electricity prices, as noted in the past year, can lead to significant fluctuations in revenue and EBITDA, potentially impacting earnings if prices decline unexpectedly.
  
• The expansion into new business areas such as data centers and hybridization with batteries and wind includes execution challenges and requires substantial investments, posing risks to future revenue streams and profitability if market conditions or execution fall short.
  
• The development of new projects is heavily dependent on permitting and regulatory approvals from bureaucratic processes, which can lead to potential delays and increased costs, impacting projected revenue growth and operating income stability.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €11.256 for Solaria Energía y Medio Ambiente based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €19.6, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €7.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €351.8 million, earnings will come to €117.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.7%.
• Given the current share price of €6.63, the analyst price target of €11.26 is 41.1% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.