Digital Out-Of-Home Expansion And Programmatic Adoption Will Drive Opportunity

Key Takeaways

• Leadership in digital out-of-home advertising and integration with data platforms positions Ströer for higher revenue growth and margin expansion as market shifts accelerate.
  
• Programmatic buying adoption and evolving business models enhance customer retention, scalability, and pricing power, further strengthening recurring revenue streams and competitive edge.
  
• Slowing growth, macroeconomic headwinds, and pressure across digital and legacy units threaten revenue, margins, and financial flexibility, increasing risk to Ströer's long-term outlook.

Catalysts

Provides out-of-home (OOH) media and digital out-of-home advertising services in Germany and internationally.

• Ströer's focused expansion and optimization of its digital out-of-home (DOOH) infrastructure-now making up the majority of growth and driving premium ad placements-is positioned to capture further shift in ad budgets away from declining TV/print toward OOH, supporting future revenue and net margin expansion as digital formats carry higher yields and operating leverage.
  
• The accelerating adoption of programmatic buying in digital OOH (with programmatic DOOH growing 26% year-to-date and incremental client inflows) enables smarter targeting and measurement, making Ströer's inventory more attractive to advertisers and increasing pricing power and customer stickiness, directly benefiting revenue growth and net earnings potential.
  
• Strong, long-term partnerships and integration into enterprise workflows (via data platforms like Statista, embedded in major AI and knowledge management systems) position Ströer to monetize growing demand for trusted, structured data, creating new scalable and recurring consumption-based revenue streams with attractive margins.
  
• Ströer's market leadership and deep relationships with municipalities (holding over 75% of large-format digital OOH assets) allow for further network expansion and recurring, defensible revenue, while regulatory and sustainability trends favoring scale players may enable additional margin gains and market share consolidation.
  
• Transition to new business models at Statista (moving from seat-based subscriptions to embedded/API and usage-based pricing) aligns with secular demand for high-quality data in the AI era, setting up Statista to deliver stronger revenue growth and margin enhancement as enterprise usage scales and integration deepens.

Ströer SE KGaA Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Ströer SE KGaA's revenue will grow by 6.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 6.7% today to 10.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €252.5 million (and earnings per share of €4.22) by about August 2028, up from €138.5 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as €211.9 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 17.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from 17.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Media industry at 26.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.67%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ströer SE KGaA Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Statista, Ströer's major digital/data asset, is facing considerable near-term headwinds in its inbound platform business-declining by over 20% in H1-with no visibility yet on monetization from AI/LLM partnerships, as usage-based pricing and demand are still in pilot phases, potentially putting future digital/data revenue growth and margin expectations at risk.
  
• Out-of-home (OOH) media, Ströer's core business, showed slowing revenue growth: flat or only modest growth (1–2%) in Q2 against high prior-year comparables, with organic growth close to zero, indicating rising difficulty in materially outpacing overall ad market growth; if this persists, it could pressure top-line revenue and net income over the long term.
  
• The company acknowledged exceptional macroeconomic uncertainties (e.g., trade/tariff tensions between the U.S. and EU, weak German ad market, and softer summer spending), which if unresolved or further deteriorated, may lead to greater cyclicality and unpredictability in Ströer's advertising revenues and free cash flow.
  
• Ströer's leverage ratio increased year-on-year (to 2.47x net debt/EBITDA from 2.28x), driven by higher net debt and only slight EBITDA growth; sustained revenue/margin pressure could constrain its financial flexibility, raise refinancing risks, and impact bottom-line earnings if elevated debt persists.
  
• Within digital & dialog media and e-commerce segments, certain legacy/third-party assets and direct marketing arms (e.g., "door-to-door business") are experiencing structural declines and higher churn, with H1 revenue and EBITDA in these units falling year-over-year-implying risk of future margin compression, asset write-downs, and lagging returns relative to purely digital peers.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €68.527 for Ströer SE KGaA based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €100.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €54.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €2.5 billion, earnings will come to €252.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 17.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.7%.
  
• Given the current share price of €43.0, the analyst price target of €68.53 is 37.3% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.