E-mobility And Renewables Will Fuel Orders Despite Fierce Competition

Key Takeaways

• Electrification of mobility and advanced automation position Aumann for rapid market share and margin gains, outperforming typical machinery sector peers.
  
• Strong balance sheet and regulatory tailwinds enable strategic M&A and investment in growth verticals, supporting sustained earnings outperformance.
  
• Heavy reliance on the automotive E-mobility sector and limited geographic reach heighten exposure to sector downturns, regional risks, and intensifying global competition.

Catalysts

Manufactures and sells specialized machines and production lines for electromobility, automation, and robot applications in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, and internationally.

• Analysts broadly agree that the electrification of mobility will drive order growth, but this may be underestimated: Aumann not only captures rapid EV adoption, but its ability to deliver nearly all key drivetrain and battery assembly equipment uniquely positions it for accelerated market share gains as OEMs consolidate suppliers-translating to outperformance in revenue growth and higher backlog conversion.
  
• While the analyst consensus expects diversification into Next Automation to boost revenues, the surging sales pipeline in strategic verticals such as aerospace and defense, coupled with significant European government stimulus and rearmament, could result in Next Automation scaling past expectations and materially lifting Aumann's total sales mix and group margins.
  
• Aumann's leadership in advanced modular and standardized production cells unlocks a step change in operational leverage, enabling faster global rollouts and higher recurring service and software income, driving sustained EBITDA margin expansion well ahead of typical machinery peers.
  
• The company's best-in-class balance sheet, highlighted by a net cash position of 133 million euro after a major buyback, provides firepower for transformational M&A or rapid deployment into high-growth clean energy and battery verticals, laying a foundation for outsized earnings growth through market cycles.
  
• With the European regulatory environment now set for longer-term stability and grid expansion, key customers are expected to restart large-scale investment cycles sooner, propelling a sharp rebound in order intake and revenue visibility as factories race to localize and automate electrified component manufacturing.

Aumann Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Aumann compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming Aumann's revenue will grow by 1.1% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 6.9% today to 5.3% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach €16.9 million (and earnings per share of €1.18) by about July 2028, down from €21.5 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from 8.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Machinery industry at 19.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.84% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.87%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Aumann Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Aumann's current overdependence on the automotive and E-mobility sector is salient, as order backlog and order intake in this area have both dropped sharply, which may drive ongoing volatility and downward pressure on revenues if the sector experiences further downturns.
  
• The company's limited geographic diversification, with a strong reliance on European customers and explicit mention of EU emission policy changes directly impacting its business environment, leaves it exposed to regional economic weakness and policy shifts that could curtail future revenue growth.
  
• Heightened global competition from Asian machinery manufacturers presents structural risks, especially as the text notes a challenging market environment and signs of price and investment reluctance, threatening margins and long-term earnings stability.
  
• Declining order intake and backlog-down 32% and 45% respectively compared to previous record highs-signals reduced future revenue visibility and places pressure on maintaining current profitability levels.
  
• Rapid technological and regulatory changes, including stricter ESG requirements and industry automation, risk forcing Aumann into constant high R&D spending; if these investments fail to convert into competitive, commercially successful products, it will compress net margins and returns on invested capital.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for Aumann is €16.0, which is the highest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Aumann's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €16.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €10.6.
  
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €321.2 million, earnings will come to €16.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.9%.
  
• Given the current share price of €12.2, the bullish analyst price target of €16.0 is 23.8% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.