Last Update 23 Sep 25
Fair value Decreased 16%🪙 West Red Lake Gold Mines – Updated Snapshot (Late-2025)
Latest verified info
- Basic Shares Outstanding: ~349.1-351.1 million shares. (Investing.com)
- Fully Diluted Shares: ~517.0 million shares (options, warrants, RSUs/DSUs) per company presentation. (West Red Lake Gold -)
- PFS AISC: ~US$1,681/oz for Madsen restart. (Carbon Credits)
⚠️ Risks
- Cost blowouts: The $1,681/oz is based on PFS estimates, but actual operating costs could be higher during ramp, or due to inflation, logistics, lower grade/recovery.
- Share dilution: Fully diluted share count is much higher (~517M), which lowers per-share math vs basic share results.
- Permitting and regulatory delays: Madsen restart involves permits, environment, local/community work — those often slow things down.
- Ramp-up risk: Producing consistent ounces at target capacity (800-1,089 tpd) takes time; early production years may underperform.
- Gold price dependency: Scenarios at $4,500-$5,000 gold are bull-case; if gold stays lower, upside drops hard.
- Financing / liquidity: Net working capital, debt/service obligations, and funding needs for expansions or sustaining capex may stress finances.
⚡ Catalysts
- Madsen mine ramping up in 2025; seeing actual production metrics, recoveries, costs.
- Rowan project contributing (toll-milling underground) adds ounces & cashflow.
- Positive PEA / FS updates, resource increases.
- Strong gold price momentum.
- Funding or refinancing that secures financial runway.
🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline
2025 🚧 Risks: Ramp up issues; cost surprises; delays in commissioning; early-year production lower than forecast. ⚡ Catalysts: Madsen restart begins; operations gain traction; Rowan PEA filed; share clarity.
2026-2027 🚧 Risks: Permitting, gold recovery, sustaining capital; cost escalation. ⚡ Catalysts: Rowan comes online; production increases; better operating margins; positive cash flows clearly visible.
2028+ 🚧 Risks: Market risk if gold price dips; sustaining cost pressures; dilution from future funding; maintaining high grades. ⚡ Catalysts: Achieving or exceeding 100,000 oz/year; consistent free cash flow; re-rating by investors; large scale or expansion upside.
📊 Re-Valued FCF Scenarios (using both Basic and Fully Diluted shares; AISC = US$1,681/oz)
Assumptions:
- Madsen PFS production: ~67,600 oz/year. (Carbon Credits)
- Stretch goal: 100,000 oz/year (if ramp + Rowan or expansion help).
Scenario A: Gold = US$4,500/oz
- Margin per oz = 4,500 − 1,681 = US$2,819/oz
- Case 1: 67,600 oz/year Annual FCF ≈ 67,600 × 2,819 = US$190.6 million Valuation Multiples: • 10× → US$1.906B → per share basic (~349M) ≈ US$5.46/sh; per share fully diluted (~517M) ≈ US$3.69/sh • 15× → US$2.859B → ≈ US$8.19/sh basic; US$5.53/sh FD • 20× → US$3.812B → ≈ US$10.92/sh basic; US$7.38/sh FD
- Case 2: 100,000 oz/year Annual FCF ≈ 100,000 × 2,819 = US$281.9 million Valuations: • 10× → US$2.819B → ≈ US$8.07/sh basic; US$5.45/sh FD • 15× → US$4.228B → ≈ US$12.11/sh basic; US$8.17/sh FD • 20× → US$5.638B → ≈ US$16.14/sh basic; US$10.90/sh FD
Scenario B: Gold = US$5,000/oz
- Margin per oz = 5,000 − 1,681 = US$3,319/oz
- Case 1: 67,600 oz/year Annual FCF ≈ 67,600 × 3,319 = US$224.4 million Valuation Multiples: • 10× → US$2.244B → ≈ US$6.43/sh basic; US$4.34/sh FD • 15× → US$3.366B → ≈ US$9.65/sh basic; US$6.51/sh FD • 20× → US$4.488B → ≈ US$12.86/sh basic; US$8.68/sh FD
- Case 2: 100,000 oz/year Annual FCF ≈ 100,000 × 3,319 = US$331.9 million Valuations: • 10× → US$3.319B → ≈ US$9.52/sh basic; US$6.42/sh FD • 15× → US$4.979B → ≈ US$14.28/sh basic; US$9.63/sh FD • 20× → US$6.638B → ≈ US$19.05/sh basic; US$12.84/sh FD
🎯 Conclusion
✅ Updated share count basic ~350M, fully diluted ~517M – using FD lowers per-share outcomes significantly vs basic.
✅ With gold at $5,000/oz, WRLG’s Madsen only (67,600 oz) gives fair value potentially US$6.4-12.9 per share (basic), US$4.3-8.7 per share (FD), depending on multiple.
✅ With a stretch to 100,000 oz/year, values move up to US$9.5-19.1 basic / US$6.4-12.8 FD in the high-gold cases.
⚠ Swing points: Fully diluted share count, actual AISC if costs rise, timing of ramp, and gold price persistence.
🚀 If gold really surges, and WRLG delivers on both PFS/Rowan contributions + efficient ramping, upside is material – but don’t expect these numbers until execution proves out.
West Red Lake Gold Mines – $4,000 Gold Scenario
Assumptions
- Production: 100,000 oz/year
- AISC: $1,200/oz
- Gold Price: $4,000/oz
- Valuation Multiple: 10× FCF
- Shares Outstanding (assumed): 100M
Step 1: Revenue Revenue = 100,000 oz × $4,000 = $400,000,000
Step 2: Costs Costs = 100,000 oz × $1,200 = $120,000,000
Step 3: Free Cash Flow (FCF) FCF = $400,000,000 – $120,000,000 = $280,000,000
Step 4: Market Cap (10× FCF) Market Cap = $280,000,000 × 10 = $2,800,000,000
Step 5: Stock Price Stock Price = $2,800,000,000 ÷ 100,000,000 = $28/share
✅ Conclusion: At $4,000/oz gold, 100k oz/year production, and $1,200/oz AISC, West Red Lake could trade around $28/share (based on 100M shares).
⚠️ With the actual 2025 share count (~343M basic / ~517M fully diluted), the per-share price would be much lower.
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Disclaimer
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