🪙 Thor Explorations Ltd (TSXV: THX | AIM: THX) - Info (Mid-Jan 2026)
Shares outstanding (basic): 665,297,482 (company presentation dated Nov 2025).
Fully diluted shares: 665,297,482
Latest AISC / cost indicator (Segilola operating guidance):
- FY2026 AISC guidance: US$1,000–1,200/oz (release dated Jan 13, 2026).
- 2025 AISC guidance US$900–1,000/oz.
Key projects (what matters):
- Segilola (Nigeria) – Producing gold mine (100%)
- FY2025 poured: 91,910 oz.
- FY2026 production guidance: 75,000–85,000 oz.
- Company pushing underground drilling beneath the open pit (near-mine life extension).
- Douta (Senegal) – Development / 2nd mine track
- Resource is quoted at ~1.78 Moz in the company deck (Indicated + Inferred breakdown shown).
- Douta PFS expected: 26 Jan 2026.
- Côte d’Ivoire – exploration torque (Guitry + Boundiali + Marahui referenced as active programs).
Balance sheet / cash (quick check):
- Q4 cash balance ~US$137M (unaudited) at Dec 31, 2025.
- Dividend policy reaffirmed: C$0.0125/quarter base in 2026 (and they paid Q4 bonus too).
⚠️ Risks (Thor-specific)
- Single-asset cash engine risk (today): Segilola is the only producing mine; any disruption hits cash flow immediately.
- AISC creep risk: 2026 AISC guidance (US$1,000–1,200) is higher than the earlier 2025 guidance range shown in the Nov 2025 deck (US$900–1,000).
- Douta execution & funding risk: PFS is imminent, but moving PFS → permits → financing → build is still multi-year and capital-intensive.
- Jurisdiction / operational risk: West Africa operating, permitting, community relations, security logistics.
- Grade / reserve replacement risk: Segilola underground is upside, but it must convert drilling success into mineable reserves/resources to extend mine life.
- Commodity price risk: valuation is highly leveraged to gold price.
⚡ Catalysts
- 26 Jan 2026: Douta PFS publication (big de-risking + valuation anchor).
- 2026: continued Segilola underground/near-mine work + West Africa drilling updates (newsflow).
- 2026–2027: Douta permitting + financing milestone(s) (decision-to-build moment).
- 2028 (CEO assumption): Douta first production / ramp-up (company re-rates from 1-mine to 2-mine story).
🗺️ Expected full timeline (now → “full production”)
2026
- Douta PFS (Jan 26, 2026)
- Segilola continues production (75–85k oz guidance)
2027 (expected sequence)
- Douta: feasibility refinement / EIA & key permits / project financing / early works
2028 (assumption)
- Douta starts production (first gold + ramp-up)
- “Full production” begins (Segilola + Douta both contributing)
2029+
- Optimization + potential expansions (especially if Segilola underground grows meaningfully)
📊 Re-Valued FCF Scenarios (proxy model) — Segilola + Douta from 2028 + CAD conversion
This is the same simple proxy you like: FCF ≈ (Gold price − AISC) × annual ounces It ignores taxes, royalties, sustaining/growth capex, working capital, corporate G&A.
Segilola (official guidance-based midpoints):
- Production: 80,000 oz/yr (midpoint of 75–85k)
- AISC: US$1,100/oz (midpoint of $1,000–1,200)
Douta (NOT official):
- Production from 2028: 120,000 oz/yr (assumption)
- AISC: US$1,200/oz (assumption — slightly higher than Segilola as a new build)
Shares: 665.30M USD→CAD: 1 USD ≈ 1.389 CAD (Reuters Jan 13, 2026)
Scenario A: Gold = US$4,500/oz (2028+ two-mine proxy)
Segilola FCF proxy: (4,500 − 1,100) × 80,000 = US$272.0M
Douta FCF proxy: (4,500 − 1,200) × 120,000 = US$396.0M
✅ Total FCF proxy: US$668.0M → C$927.9M
Valuations:
- 10× → C$9.279B → ~C$13.95/share
- 15× → C$13.918B → ~C$20.92/share
- 20× → C$18.557B → ~C$27.89/share
Scenario B: Gold = US$5,000/oz (2028+ two-mine proxy)
Segilola FCF proxy: (5,000 − 1,100) × 80,000 = US$312.0M
Douta FCF proxy: (5,000 − 1,200) × 120,000 = US$456.0M
✅ Total FCF proxy: US$768.0M → C$1.0668B
Valuations:
- 10× → C$10.668B → ~C$16.03/share
- 15× → C$16.001B → ~C$24.05/share
- 20× → C$21.335B → ~C$32.07/share
🎯 Conclusion
If Douta really starts production in 2028, Thor becomes a ~200k oz gold story in this placeholder model (80k Segilola + 120k Douta). The single biggest swing factor for valuation table is what the Douta PFS says about annual oz + AISC + capex on Jan 26, 2026.
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