Near-Restart Producer Mexico Silver Miner

🪙 Silverco Mining Ltd. (TSXV:SICO)

Updated Snapshot (Feb 2026)

Silverco is a restart-stage, high-grade-ish silver district consolidator advancing the Cusi Mine Complex (underground mine + permitted 1,200 tpd mill) toward a restart decision—but the company explicitly says no production decision has been made yet, pending technical/financial/permitting milestones.

📌 Capital Structure

🧾 Shares Outstanding (Basic): 32,616,265 (TMX key data; Jan 2026 snapshot)

🧾 Fully Diluted: not cleanly standardized on the latest TMX page; older corporate material shows post-RTO structure but is now dated.

⛏️ Cost Structure (Latest AISC)

✅ Latest “real” AISC reference = last full year of production (2022): ~US$23.20/oz AgEq (at ~63% mill utilization).

⚠️ Silverco’s pitch is that higher utilization + higher grade should drive lower AISC, but a new restart AISC is not published yet (because restart decision isn’t finalized).

🧩 Projects & Grade Quality (All Projects + Grades)

1) Cusi Mine Complex — Flagship (Past Producer / Restart Candidate)

Updated MRE (effective Oct 20, 2025; released Dec 9, 2025):

• Measured + Indicated: 4.89 Mt @ 262 g/t AgEq (41.2 Moz AgEq)
  • Metal grades: 206 g/t Ag, 0.15 g/t Au, 0.73% Pb, 0.86% Zn
• Inferred: 4.07 Mt @ 243 g/t AgEq (31.8 Moz AgEq)
  • Metal grades: 172 g/t Ag, 0.17 g/t Au, 0.89% Pb, 1.20% Zn
• Deposit character: “Silver primary” — management says 86% of value is silver.

Key internal “zone / vein” drivers inside Cusi (grade feel):

• San Miguel identified as a major growth driver; contributes 10.8 Moz AgEq (Indicated) and 16.2 Moz AgEq (Inferred).
• Corporate materials show strong downthrown-extension drill examples (illustrative):
  • 4.2m @ 842 g/t Ag + 1.56 g/t Au (Promontorio area example)
  • San Miguel examples shown: 2.55m @ 365 g/t AgEq, 7.54m @ 364 g/t AgEq, etc.

2) District-scale targets within the same land package

Silverco emphasizes consolidated claims and multiple historical mines/veins (e.g., Promontorio, Eduwiges, San Juan, San Miguel), but the only “project” the company is advancing as a corporate asset is the Cusi complex itself—there aren’t separate standalone projects with separate MRE/AISC/timelines published yet.

⚠️ Key Risks (Restart-stage)

• Restart decision risk: company explicitly: no production decision yet.
• Technical / mine plan risk: MRE ≠ reserve; needs mine plan + capex/opex + financing package.
• Cost risk: last known AISC is high (US$23.2/oz AgEq) due to low utilization; restart must genuinely improve throughput/grade to fix this.
• Dilution risk: typical for restart + drilling + rehab (even with a relatively low basic share count vs many juniors).
• Mexico operational risk: permitting, community, security/logistics (standard jurisdictional risk set).

⚡ Catalysts (From now)

• Restart pathway milestones: completion of “requisite technical, financial and permitting milestones” toward a restart decision.
• Resource growth / conversion: they position San Miguel + additional drilling as expansion upside beyond what’s already in the Oct-2025 MRE database close-out.
• Engineering package / economics update: the market will likely want a restart study (PEA/PFS-style) with capex + schedule + AISC.

🗺️ Expected Timeline to Full Production

2026 (company framing): “resource update / restart plan / restart operations” (high-level). But official stance: no production decision yet until milestones are completed.

Practical interpretation: until Silverco releases a restart study + financing + detailed schedule, any exact “full production” date would be guesswork.

📊 Re-Valued “FCF” Scenarios (Torque Model) — CAD

Model Assumptions (transparent)

• AgEq production: ~2.5 Moz AgEq/year at higher utilization case (company slide).
• AISC: US$23.20/oz AgEq (last full production year reference).
• Shares: 32.616M basic.
• FX (USD→CAD): 1 USD ≈ 1.366 CAD (Feb 3, 2026).
• Multiples: ×10 | ×15 | ×20

🥈 Scenario S1 — Silver proxy = US$100/oz

Margin = 100 − 23.2 = US$76.8/oz

• Annual “FCF” proxy = 2.5M × 76.8 = US$192.0M
• In CAD = C$262.3M

Valuation (CAD/share):

• 10×: C$80.43/sh
• 15×: C$120.64/sh
• 20×: C$160.85/sh

🥈 Scenario S2 — Silver proxy = US$150/oz

Margin = 150 − 23.2 = US$126.8/oz

• Annual “FCF” proxy = 2.5M × 126.8 = US$317.0M
• In CAD = C$433.0M

Valuation (CAD/share):

• 10×: C$132.74/sh
• 15×: C$199.11/sh
• 20×: C$265.48/sh

🎯 Quick Scorecard

1. Management ✅ Pretty good management.
2. High Grade ✅ Yes: 262 g/t AgEq M&I is strong for a restart platform.
3. Insider Ownership ✅ 21%—good number.
4. Share Structure Discipline ✅ 32.6M basic is tight vs most silver juniors (good per-share torque).
5. Location ⚠️ Mexico — operational upside, but with jurisdictional risk

⭐ Final Rating, Commentary

★★★★☆ (4 / 5 for now) — not because the rock isn’t good, but because this is still a “restart decision” story: the next re-rating needs a restart study (capex + schedule + new AISC) and a clear “go/no-go” path. The share structure is great, and the MRE is meaningful—but until the restart package is published, this remains high torque + high execution uncertainty.