---
Revival Gold: Valuation Potential
Key Projects:
1. Beartrack-Arnett (Idaho):
Resource: 4M oz (1 gpt), growing.
Starter Pit: 859K oz at 0.7 gpt.
Production: 65,300 oz/year for 8 years (529K oz total).
Capex: $110M.
After-tax NPV: $105M at $1,800 gold.
IRR: 24%.
2. Mercur (Utah):
Resource: 1.6M oz at 0.6 gpt.
Drilling planned, PEA expected in 2024.
Management:
Insiders hold 11%.
Potential dilution to finance development.
---
Future Valuation Potential:
Production Target:
Combined future production: 250,000 oz/year.
Gold Price Scenarios:
At $4,000/oz:
Revenue = 250,000 × 4,000 = $1,000,000,000.
Cost Assumptions:
Cash costs: $800/oz.
Costs = 250,000 × 800 = $200,000,000.
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
At $4,000/oz:
FCF = 1,000,000,000 - 200,000,000 = $800,000,000.
---
Market Cap Estimate:
Using a 10x FCF multiple:
Market Cap = 800,000,000 × 10 = $8,000,000,000.
---
Per Share Valuation:
Shares outstanding: 100M.
At $4,000/oz:
Stock Price = 8,000,000,000 ÷ 100,000,000 = $80.00/share.
---
Conclusion: If gold reaches $4,000/oz and both Beartrack-Arnett and Mercur are successfully developed, Revival Gold’s stock price could reach $80.00 per share.
Considerations:
Risks: Financing, project timelines, potential acquisition.
Positives: Strong insider ownership and resource growth potential.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
