15,000% Nevada's Gold Miner Play

🪙 Lahontan Gold – Updated Snapshot (2025)

Open-pit Nevada gold developer advancing toward a 2027 construction decision.

Still very low market cap and truly undervalued to be ignore!

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🔢 Latest Shares Outstanding

• 220M basic • 250M fully diluted

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💵 AISC (Updated Worst-Case Assumption)

Lahontan is still pre-production; no published AISC. Using your new worst-case assumption:

➡️ AISC Used: US$1,900/oz

This is extremely conservative, representing high fuel, reagent, strip ratio, and overhead stress.

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⚠️ Risks

• Funding risk – ~$150M capex needed; equity raise → dilution possible. (I'm not worried with the current bullish market condition, the capex, but dilution need to be consider)

• Permitting duration – ~2 years typical in Nevada.

• Metallurgy (sulphides) – relies on Chesapeake oxidation breakthrough.

• Resource expansion pressure – Must grow from 1.9M oz → 3–4M oz.

• Build timeline risk – Any delay in PEA → FS → permits affects 2027 target.

• High AISC scenario – If AISC stays near $1,900, margins compress unless gold is above $3,500–$4,000+. (Gold going to more than $5,000/oz, I'm not worried at all)

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⚡ Catalysts (12–24 Months)

• Q1 2026 Updated Resource → target ~2.3M+ oz

• 2026 PEA → formal 70–80K/yr plan

• West Santa Fe drilling (200k oz not yet in resource)

• Sulphide metallurgical results

• Full permitting start → completion (2025–2027)

• Financing structure (2026–2027)

• Construction decision H1 2027

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🗺️ Timeline to Full Production

2025 – Drilling, metallurgy

Q1 2026 – Resource + PEA

2026–2027 – Permitting + FS-level work

H1 2027 – Construction-ready

2027–2029 – Build heap-leach (18–24 months)

2029 – First gold pour

2030+ – 70–80K oz/year steady-state

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📊 Valuation Scenarios (UPDATED AISC $1,900)

Using: • 80K oz/year • AISC = $1,900 • Shares = 220M basic • CAD FX = 1.36

Formula:

Margin = Price – AISC

FCF = Production × Margin

Value = FCF × multiple

Per-share = Value ÷ shares

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💰 Gold $4,500/oz Scenario (AISC 1,900)

Step 1 — Margin

4,500 – 1,900 = 2,600/oz

Step 2 — Annual FCF

80,000 × 2,600 = US$208,000,000

Step 3 — Valuations (USD)

• 10× → US$2.08B • 15× → US$3.12B • 20× → US$4.16B

Convert to CAD (×1.36)

• 10× → C$2.83B • 15× → C$4.24B • 20× → C$5.66B

Per Share (CAD)

• 10× → C$12.86/sh

• 15× → C$19.25/sh

• 20× → C$25.71/sh

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💰 Gold $5,000/oz Scenario (AISC 1,900)

Step 1 — Margin

5,000 – 1,900 = 3,100/oz

Step 2 — Annual FCF

80,000 × 3,100 = US$248,000,000

Step 3 — Valuations (USD)

• 10× → US$2.48B • 15× → US$3.72B • 20× → US$4.96B

Convert to CAD

• 10× → C$3.37B • 15× → C$5.06B • 20× → C$6.75B

Per Share (CAD)

• 10× → C$15.32/sh

• 15× → C$22.98/sh

• 20× → C$30.66/sh

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🎯 Conclusion (With AISC Raised to $1,900)

Even using very conservative AISC, Lahontan still shows major torque:

Gold $4,500 → C$13–26/share

Gold $5,000 → C$15–31/share

In other words:

➡️ Raising AISC from $1,350 → $1,900 only reduces valuations by ~20–25%, but the project remains highly profitable at high gold prices.

⚠️ Swing factors: Permitting, financing, metallurgy, and keeping AISC below worst-case levels.

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