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If silver reaches $100 per oz

RO
RockeTellerInvested
Community Contributor

Published

September 26 2024

Updated

December 05 2024

Here’s a simplified, copy-friendly version:

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Guanajuato Silver: Stock Price Estimate at $100 Silver

Step 1: Production and Revenue

- Projected Production: 6M oz AgEq annually.

- Silver Price: $100/oz.

- Revenue = Production × Silver Price = 6,000,000 × 100 = $600,000,000 USD.

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Step 2: Free Cash Flow (FCF)

- AISC: $22/oz AgEq.

- Total Costs = Production × AISC = 6,000,000 × 22 = $132,000,000 USD.

- FCF = Revenue - Costs = 600,000,000 - 132,000,000 = $468,000,000 USD.

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Step 3: Valuation

- FCF Multiple: 10x.

- Market Cap = FCF × 10 = 468,000,000 × 10 = $4,680,000,000 USD.

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Step 4: Stock Price

- Shares Outstanding: 100M.

- Stock Price = Market Cap ÷ Shares Outstanding = 4,680,000,000 ÷ 100,000,000 = $46.80 USD.

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Conclusion

If silver reaches $100/oz and Guanajuato Silver produces 6M oz AgEq annually, the estimated stock price could be $46.80 per share. This reflects the company's strong leverage to rising silver prices.

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Disclaimer

The user RockeTeller has a position in TSXV:GSVR. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value
CA$46.8
99.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
RockeTeller's Fair Value
Future estimation in
PastFuture-154m16b20132016201920222024202520282029Revenue US$16.2bEarnings US$1.5b
% p.a.
Decrease
Increase
Current revenue growth rate
13.71%
Metals and Mining revenue growth rate
4.74%