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Legendary Eric Sprott Owned 28% with 25 Baggers!

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RockeTellerNot Invested
Community Contributor
Published
09 Apr 25
Updated
09 Apr 25
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RockeTeller's Fair Value
CA$18.50
94.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
09 Apr
CA$1.06
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1Y
128.0%
7D
-1.9%

Author's Valuation

CA$18.5

94.3% undervalued intrinsic discount

RockeTeller's Fair Value

Freegold Ventures Overview (Golden Summit Project – Alaska):

  • Location: 20 miles from Fairbanks, accessible via paved road.
  • Project: Golden Summit – 20 million oz gold at 0.9 gpt.
  • Key Drill Hole: 257 meters @ 2.9 gpt (2020).
  • Market Cap: Rose from $16M to $268M after 2020 drill results.
  • Nearby Mine: Kinross Fort Knox (5 miles away, similar geology, mill infrastructure usable).
  • Eric Sprott Ownership: 29%. Strong hands not looking to sell early.
  • Potential Value: $75–$150 per oz is likely for a sale. Could be worth $2–$3B at $3,000 gold.

Updated PEA (Expected 2024):

  • Old PEA (2016): Based on 3M oz. 100,000 oz/year for 24 years.
    • Phase 1 Capex: $88M for heap leach.
    • Phase 2 Capex: $350M for mill.
    • IRR: 20% at $1300 gold.
    • Cash Costs: $850/oz.
  • Expected New PEA:
    • Production Target: 500,000 oz/year.
    • AISC: ~$1400/oz.
    • All-in Cost: ~$1700/oz.
    • Gold Price Used: $3,000/oz.
    • Free Cash Flow: $650M/year.
    • Valuation (15x FCF): ~$10 billion (after construction).

Timeline & Exit Strategy:

  • Permitting: ~5 years → Construction in 2029.
  • Exit Potential: Likely buyout once gold hits $3,000/oz and M&A accelerates (2025–2026).
  • Buyout Estimate: ~$2–3B likely.

Additional Project – Shorty Creek (25,000 acres):

  • Discovery Hole: 434 meters @ 0.36% Cu with silver, gold, tungsten offsets.

Key Points:

  • Near perfect fit for Fort Knox replacement.
  • Proximity to majors like Kinross, Barrick, Northern Star.
  • High takeover potential with future gold bull market.

The potential stock price of FreeGold Ventures (FVL) under the assumptions:

  • Gold = $4,000/oz
  • Silver = $100/oz
  • Free Cash Flow (FCF) multiple = 20x
  • 30M–40M oz gold potential (based on tweet)
  • No debt or additional share dilution assumed (for simplicity)
  • Outstanding shares: approx. 450 million (as of recent data)

Step 1: Estimate Annual Production & FCF

Let’s assume annual production = 500,000 oz of gold (a reasonable number for a large open-pit mine like Golden Summit).

Revenue

Gold Revenue: 500,000 oz x $4,000 = $2,000,000,000

Assume all-in costs = $1,700/oz Profit per oz = $4,000 - $1,700 = $2,300

Free Cash Flow (FCF):

500,000 oz x $2,300 = $1,150,000,000

Step 2: Apply FCF Multiple (20x)

Estimated Market Cap = FCF x 20 = $1.15B x 20 = $23 billion

Step 3: Calculate Stock Price

Assuming 450 million shares outstanding:

$23B ÷ 450M = $51.11 per share

But that's too much, let's be more realistic...

=======================================

Freegold Ventures – Stock Price Estimate at $4,000/oz Gold and $100/oz Silver

(Using $100/oz in-situ valuation and estimated 450 million shares outstanding)

Scenario 1: 30 million oz gold resource

  • Valuation: 30M oz × $100/oz = $3.0B
  • Stock Price: $3.0B ÷ 450M shares = $6.67/share

Scenario 2: 35 million oz gold resource

  • Valuation: 35M oz × $100/oz = $3.5B
  • Stock Price: $3.5B ÷ 450M shares = $7.78/share

Scenario 3: 40 million oz gold resource

  • Valuation: 40M oz × $100/oz = $4.0B
  • Stock Price: $4.0B ÷ 450M shares = $8.89/share

Scenario 4: 60 million oz gold resource (Eric Sprott speculation)

  • Valuation: 60M oz × $100/oz = $6.0B
  • Stock Price: $6.0B ÷ 450M shares = $13.33/share

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

The user RockeTeller holds no position in TSX:FVL. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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