If silver reaches $100 per oz

🪙 Endeavour Silver – Updated Snapshot (Late-2025)

Latest official info

• Shares Outstanding (basic): ~290.17 million shares. (Yahoo Finance)
• AISC (All-In-Sustaining Cost) per silver ounce: ~$25.16 in Q2 2025. (Endeavour Silver)
• 2025 production guidance for Guanac evi + Bolañitos (excluding Terronera) : ~4.5 to 5.2 million oz silver; gold production ~30,500-34,000 oz. Total AgEq ~7.0-7.9 million oz. (Endeavour Silver)

⚠️ Risks

• Silver price dependency: If silver stays well below $25-$30, margins are squeezed because current AISC is ~$25+/oz.
• Production drop risk: Some mines (e.g., Guanaceví, Bolañitos) are aging; ore grades, throughput or recovery might decline.
• Ramp and commissioning risk: Terronera is coming online; any delay or lower recovery will hurt projected upside.
• Cost inflation & sustaining capex: Materials, labour, energy, and royalty/tax changes may increase costs.
• Share dilution: The share count has increased over time; future capital raises to fund projects may dilute.
• Regulatory / permitting / environmental risks in Mexico and for new projects.

⚡ Catalysts

• Full commissioning of the Terronera mine (expected Q4 2025). This adds low-cost production. (streetwisereports.com)
• Integration of Kolpa asset; new resource base, further silver-equivalent output. (AInvest)
• Strong silver & gold price environment (especially silver moving above $50–$100).
• Exploration or reserve expansion at operating mines (Guanaceví, Bolañitos) and Pitarrilla or other growth projects.
• Improved operational metrics: higher throughput, recovery gains, lower per oz costs.

🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline

2025 🚧 Risks: Terronera ramp-up delays; AISC remains high; silver price volatility; cost overshoots. ⚡ Catalysts: Terronera commissioning; Q2/Q3 cost improvements; Kolpa integration; reporting of new reserve/resource; potential cash flow uptick.

2026 🚧 Risks: Sustaining capex load; maintaining output as older mines decline; stronger competition for capital. ⚡ Catalysts: Terronera in steady state; higher annual production + gold credits; exploration success; larger leverage to silver price.

2027+ 🚧 Risks: If silver price falls; environmental/regulatory changes; dilution from financing; possible resource/grade shortfalls. ⚡ Catalysts: Multiple production sources (Terronera + others); strong free cash flows; possible re-rating; becoming senior silver producer status.

📊 Re-Valued FCF Scenarios (using Shares = ~290.17M; recent AISC basis for operating mines; note: Terronera expected to have lower AISC which could improve margin)

Assumptions for scenarios:

• Use lower-cost steady state operating set (excluding or semi-excluding older mines) at current AISC ~US$25/oz for silver production.
• If production grows (with Terronera + other projects) to, say, ~8 million oz AgEq/year (or more).
• Also include gold credits modestly (or treat AgEq production) but the model will simplify by focusing on silver price minus AISC per oz.

We’ll run for silver = $100/oz and $150/oz (and include “gold overlay” sensitivity where applicable), at multiples ×10, ×15, ×20.

Scenario A: Silver = US$100/oz

• Margin per oz = 100 − 25.16 ≈ US$74.84/oz
• Suppose production = 8 million oz/year AgEq (with Terronera + existing operations)   Annual FCF ≈ 8,000,000 × 74.84 = US$598.7 million
• Valuation multiples:   • 10× → ~US$5.99B → ≈ US$20.65/share (5.99B ÷ 290.17M)   • 15× → ~US$8.98B → ≈ US$30.98/share   • 20× → ~US$11.97B → ≈ US$41.30/share

Scenario B: Silver = US$150/oz

• Margin per oz = 150 − 25.16 ≈ US$124.84/oz
• Same production = 8,000,000 oz/year AgEq

  Annual FCF ≈ 8,000,000 × 124.84 = US$998.7 million

• Valuation multiples:   • 10× → ~US$9.99B → ≈ US$34.43/share   • 15× → ~US$14.98B → ≈ US$51.65/share   • 20× → ~US$19.97B → ≈ US$68.86/share

🎯 Conclusion

✅ With ~290 million shares outstanding, and current AISC ~$25/oz, your bullish silver price scenarios ($100, $150) point to potential values in the US$20-40/share range for moderately bullish multiples under ~$100 silver; rising toward US$35-70/share if silver reaches ~$150 and production is fully ramped.

⚠ Key caveats: achieving 8M oz/year AgEq is ambitious, relying on Terronera + gold/silver recoveries + stable operating mines; AISC for newer mines might be better, but older ones likely drag the average. Also, financing, permitting, cost inflation are nontrivial risks.

🚀 If Endeavour nails Terronera, Kolpa, maintains cost discipline, and silver price performs, the upside is serious.