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To calculate the stock price of Endeavour Silver if silver reaches $100 per oz, we can follow these steps based on the projected production and valuation metrics:
### Assumptions
1. Production Estimate: 9 million oz annually starting in 2025.
2. Price of Silver: $100 per oz.
3. All-in Costs (AISC): Expected to be around $20 per oz post-Terronera.
4. Valuation Multiple: We'll use a conservative multiple based on future cash flows.
### Revenue Calculation
1. Annual Revenue:
\[
\text{Revenue} = \text{Production} \times \text{Price per oz} = 9,000,000 \text{ oz} \times 100 \text{ USD/oz} = 900,000,000 \text{ USD}
\]
2. Annual Costs:
\[
\text{Costs} = \text{Production} \times \text{AISC} = 9,000,000 \text{ oz} \times 20 \text{ USD/oz} = 180,000,000 \text{ USD}
\]
3. Annual Free Cash Flow:
\[
\text{Free Cash Flow} = \text{Revenue} - \text{Costs} = 900,000,000 \text{ USD} - 180,000,000 \text{ USD} = 720,000,000 \text{ USD}
\]
### Market Cap Valuation
Using a price-to-earnings (P/E) or price-to-cash-flow multiple to estimate the market cap:
- Assumed P/E or Cash Flow Multiple: Let's use a conservative multiple of 10 for cash flow.
### Market Cap Calculation
\[
\text{Market Cap} = \text{Free Cash Flow} \times \text{Multiple} = 720,000,000 \text{ USD} \times 10 = 7,200,000,000 \text{ USD}
\]
### Shares Outstanding
Assuming the company has approximately 140 million shares outstanding (this figure may vary slightly based on recent financings):
\[
\text{Stock Price} = \frac{\text{Market Cap}}{\text{Shares Outstanding}} = \frac{7,200,000,000 \text{ USD}}{140,000,000 \text{ shares}} \approx 51.43 \text{ USD/share}
\]
### Conclusion
If silver reaches $100 per oz, and assuming Endeavour Silver maintains production and manages costs effectively, the stock price could potentially be around $51.43 per share. This represents a significant upside from its current valuation, making it an attractive proposition for investors.
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