Ghana's High Quality Gold Play (35% Insider)

Asante Gold – Updated Snapshot (Sept 2025)

Latest official guidance and disclosures

• Five-year outlook: company targets ~500,000 oz/yr by 2028 and >US$2B cumulative unlevered FCF (company outlook). asantegold.com+1
• 2026 production target (company): ~450,000 oz consolidated (Bibiani + Chirano). asantegold.com+1
• Near-term step-change: Bibiani sulphide treatment plant to lift recoveries from ~60% to as high as ~92% as it comes online (commissioning targeted September 2025; optimization Q4 2025). asantegold.com
• Current AISC snapshot (most recent quarter, transitional): consolidated AISC spiked to ~US$4,849/oz (stripping at Bibiani; lower ounces), with management expecting improvement as new plant and mine plans ramp. Q1 FY26 AISC was US$2,587/oz. Treat these as transitional, not steady-state. asantegold.com+1
• Latest share structure (company site): 712,734,491 common shares outstanding (May 12, 2025); FD ~764.7M. Use this for per-share math until a newer official figure is posted. asantegold.com
• Financing: company completed a ~US$500M financing package (late Aug 2025) and is deploying capital to drive throughput, grade access, and recovery improvements. asantegold.com+1

Assumptions you provided (kept where consistent)

• Long-run AISC target for modeling: US$1,700/oz (your steady-state cost case; note it’s below recent transitional AISC but aligned with your thesis).
• Production path you’re using: 400k oz (2026), 500k oz (2028), 600k oz (2029–2030 est.).

Risks

• Cost/Execution: transitional AISC has been volatile and high; success hinges on stripping catch-up, plant upgrades, and recovery lift at Bibiani, plus underground development at Chirano. asantegold.com+1
• Financing/Dilution: despite the recent package, additional equity or restructuring could occur if ramp-up or prices disappoint. Investing News Network (INN)
• Ramp & Grade Delivery: meeting the 2026–2028 ounce targets requires timely access to higher-grade ore and plant debottlenecking; any delays push out the step-change. asantegold.com
• Jurisdiction & ESG: Ghana is mining-friendly, but permitting, community, and environmental obligations still carry timing/cost risks. asantegold.com
• Counterparty/Ownership overhangs: strategic investors’ position changes (e.g., Kinross partial sale) can affect liquidity/sentiment near term. Investing News Network (INN)
• Macro/price risk: the 4,500–5,000 gold scenarios are bull-case sensitivities; a pullback in gold crimps FCF and multiples.

Catalysts (next 6–24 months)

• Bibiani sulphide plant commissioning/ramp to targeted ~92% recoveries; crushing expansion to ~4.0 Mt/y. asantegold.com
• Chirano improvements: plant upgrades, underground development (Akwaaba, Tano, Akoti) and open-pit sequences to lift ounce delivery. asantegold.com
• Quarterly production cadence: visible month-over-month increase into late FY26 as stripping normalizes and recoveries improve. asantegold.com
• Further reserve/resource work and a formalized 2026–2028 cost/ounce roadmap.
• Capital deployment updates from the US$500M package; potential TSX-V listing to broaden investor base. asantegold.com

Expected timeline (now → full production)

• H2 2025: Bibiani sulphide plant online; optimization through Q4; throughput upgrades; exit-2025 recovery and oz should improve. asantegold.com
• 2026: Consolidated ~450k oz target (company); narrowing AISC as the plant and mine plans stabilize. asantegold.com+1
• 2027–2028: Progress toward ~500k oz/yr run-rate; continued plant/mine optimization. asantegold.com+1
• 2029–2030: Your stretch goal ~600k oz/yr contingent on execution, capital, and exploration success.

FCF Sensitivity (copy-friendly; steady-state case) Method: FCF ≈ production × (gold price − AISC). Assume AISC = US$1,700/oz (your long-run cost case), shares = 712,734,491. These are operating proxies (pre-tax, pre-interest, pre-sustaining capex nuances) to show torque.

Gold = US$4,500/oz

• Margin = 4,500 − 1,700 = US$2,800/oz

400k oz (2026 case): • FCF ≈ US$1.12B • 10× = US$11.2B → ~US$15.71/sh • 15× = US$16.8B → ~US$23.56/sh • 20× = US$22.4B → ~US$31.42/sh

500k oz (2028 case): • FCF ≈ US$1.40B • 10× = US$14.0B → ~US$19.64/sh • 15× = US$21.0B → ~US$29.46/sh • 20× = US$28.0B → ~US$39.29/sh

600k oz (2029–2030 case): • FCF ≈ US$1.68B • 10× = US$16.8B → ~US$23.56/sh • 15× = US$25.2B → ~US$35.34/sh • 20× = US$33.6B → ~US$47.12/sh

Gold = US$5,000/oz

• Margin = 5,000 − 1,700 = US$3,300/oz

400k oz: • FCF ≈ US$1.32B • 10× = US$13.2B → ~US$18.52/sh • 15× = US$19.8B → ~US$27.77/sh • 20× = US$26.4B → ~US$37.05/sh

500k oz: • FCF ≈ US$1.65B • 10× = US$16.5B → ~US$23.15/sh • 15× = US$24.75B → ~US$34.72/sh • 20× = US$33.0B → ~US$46.30/sh

600k oz: • FCF ≈ US$1.98B • 10× = US$19.8B → ~US$27.77/sh • 15× = US$29.7B → ~US$41.65/sh • 20× = US$39.6B → ~US$55.53/sh

Bottom line

• The path to your 400k → 500k → 600k oz/yr ramp is now anchored by concrete plant and mine upgrades and a published five-year outlook. Near-term AISC has been noisy (and elevated) but is expected to improve as recoveries rise and stripping normalizes. If gold trends toward US$4,500–US$5,000, the simple FCF-multiple math shows substantial per-share upside against today’s ~713M share base—execution and costs are the swing factors. asantegold.com+2asantegold.com+2