Last Update 03 Jun 25
Fair value Increased 50%IndusyHoldings has increased future PE multiple from 20.0x to 30.0x.
Key takeaways
- The main source of income is the market for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Medium Earth Orbit Satellites (MEO) with a revenue share of almost 60%.
- The space industry is currently experiencing strong growth and is expected to grow by an average of 9% per year until 2035.
- MDA Space can benefit greatly from the tailwind of the industry as they offer a wide product range that includes LEO and MEO satellites, space robots and space rovers.
- Partnerships with OHB System AG, Huber+Suhner and ThermAvant Technologies.
- MDA Space sources its resources from Canadian suppliers and manufacturers.
Assumptions
- We expect MDA Spaces revenue to reach 2.5 billion by 2028.
- We expect a profit margin of between 9% and 10% by 2028.
Risks
- Around 33% of revenue comes from government contracts, which could lead to revenue losses if cost-cutting programs are implemented.
- Artemis delays could lead to shifts in revenue and earnings.
- Global instabilities such as the current Trump tariffs could significantly depress Ebitda with cost-cutting programs such as Doge and tariffs on materials.
Valuation
- Using a Level 2 Discounted Cash Flow Model we calculated an intrinsic enterprise value of around CA$4.9B.
- Sales are expected to grow by an average of approximately 26% per year until 2028
Have other thoughts on MDA Space?
Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.
Create NarrativeHow well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Comments
0 commentsDisclaimer
The user IndusyHoldings holds no position in TSX:MDA. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Read more narratives
Global Connectivity And Defense Spending Will Expand Satellite Markets
View narrative
Analysts Adjust Fair Value for MDA Space Amid Sector Growth and Recent Contract Developments
View narrative
Growing Protectionism And Tech Competition Will Undermine Long-Term Outlook
View narrative