Automation And Expansion In Australia And Germany Will Create Momentum

Key Takeaways

• Efficiency gains from automation and tech investment are expected to boost margins, support profitability, and drive improved user retention.
  
• Focused expansion and value-added services should diversify revenue, deepen customer engagement, and reduce reliance on any single market.
  
• Heavy dependence on government programs and key markets, combined with operational losses and external risks, threatens Camplify's long-term growth and business resilience.

Catalysts

Operates peer-to-peer digital marketplace platforms to connect recreational vehicle (RV) owners to hirers in Australia, New Zealand, Spain, United Kingdom, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands.

• Streamlined operational cost base, driven by automation, platform unification, and significantly more efficient marketing spend, positions Camplify to achieve higher net margins and accelerate the path to sustainable profitability in FY26 and beyond.
  
• Enhanced value-added services, particularly the global rollout of the MyWay Mutual insurance membership, are expected to materially boost gross profit margins and per-customer monetization, creating a stickier user base and additional ancillary revenue streams.
  
• Expansion and disciplined scaling in core geographic markets (Australia, Germany, New Zealand) alongside operational consolidation and strategic reviews in Europe will allow Camplify to leverage network effects, increase gross booking value, and de-risk earnings from market concentration.
  
• Ongoing investment in technology-such as AI-driven customer support, improved search algorithms, and centralized systems-should lower customer acquisition and employee costs while driving better user retention and greater operational leverage, supporting both revenue growth and profitability.
  
• Long-term secular shifts toward peer-to-peer travel marketplaces and sustained consumer demand for flexible, experiential, and local holidays are likely to boost platform engagement and future bookings, underpinned by leading indicators showing an 8% YoY pipeline increase, indicating a return to top-line growth.

Camplify Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Camplify Holdings's revenue will grow by 14.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -37.5% today to 12.6% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach A$7.9 million (and earnings per share of A$0.11) by about September 2028, up from A$-15.8 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 10.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -1.8x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the AU Transportation industry at 16.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.48%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Camplify Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Camplify's reliance on major temporary accommodation programs (TAP) for significant revenue and Gross Transaction Value exposes it to volatility as these government programs can end unpredictably or be scaled down, which risks ongoing revenue and earnings consistency.
  
• Despite recent operational efficiencies, the company's EBITDA remains negative, with a net loss after tax of $15.8 million and total annual revenue, GTV, and bookings all declining year-on-year, indicating underlying demand softness and raising concerns about the path to sustained profitability.
  
• The majority of Camplify's GTV and earnings remain concentrated in Australia and Germany, meaning economic downturns, regulatory changes, or competitive pressures in these core markets could disproportionately harm revenue, margins, and overall business resilience.
  
• The rollout of the new MyWay Mutual insurance program introduces short-term churn and untested claims risk; if claims exceed provisioned loss ratios or reinsurance thresholds, there could be negative impacts on net margins, cash flow, and earnings reliability.
  
• Broader secular shifts-such as increased regulation on vehicle emissions, urbanization reducing long-term RV-related travel demand, and competition from alternative travel platforms (like Airbnb)-could shrink Camplify's addressable market, dampening user growth and future revenues.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of A$0.907 for Camplify Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$1.05, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just A$0.67.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be A$62.8 million, earnings will come to A$7.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 10.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.5%.
  
• Given the current share price of A$0.4, the analyst price target of A$0.91 is 55.3% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.