Digital Health And AI Will Redefine Patient Engagement

Key Takeaways

• Product innovation, SaaS transition, and strategic partnerships are driving higher-margin recurring revenue and improved operational leverage for sustainable growth.
  
• Enhanced AI features, cost restructuring, and healthcare digitalisation trends are strengthening competitive positioning and deepening long-term customer relationships.
  
• Ongoing operating losses, margin volatility, slow sales cycles, and reliance on a few large clients heighten profitability challenges and increase exposure to revenue concentration risks.

Catalysts

Develops and sells software services for the healthcare sector in Ireland, the United States, Australia, Ireland, the Middle East, and Asia.

• Rising adoption of digital health solutions and increased investment in healthcare IT are expanding the addressable market for Oneview's patient engagement platform, supported by a rapidly growing pipeline, large-scale U.S. deployments, and a key partnership with Baxter-all likely to accelerate both top-line revenue and higher-quality recurring revenue streams.
  
• The company's accelerated shift to a SaaS/cloud business model, paired with AI-driven product enhancements and a revamped front-end user experience, positions Oneview to capture higher-margin recurring software revenue and improved net margins as hardware mix normalises.
  
• Strategic focus on operational efficiency, evidenced by recent cost restructuring and automation initiatives, is expected to yield significant OpEx reductions and operating leverage, supporting earnings growth as revenue increases.
  
• Ongoing product innovation, particularly the roll-out of unique AI-powered features and achievement of ISO 42001 certification (demonstrating industry-leading governance), strengthens competitive differentiation and should drive higher contract values and stickier long-term customer relationships, supporting recurring revenue and potential gross margin expansion.
  
• The growing demand for hospital digitalisation and smart room technology-driven by demographic tailwinds like ageing populations and chronic disease prevalence-continues to boost the need for enterprise-grade, integrated patient experience platforms like Oneview's, underpinning long-term sustainable revenue growth.

Oneview Healthcare Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Oneview Healthcare's revenue will grow by 35.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -114.4% today to 6.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €2.0 million (and earnings per share of €0.0) by about August 2028, up from €-13.2 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 141.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -7.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the AU Healthcare Services industry at 170.6x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.35%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Oneview Healthcare Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Despite strong top-line growth, Oneview continues to operate at an EBITDA loss (€4.5 million for H1 2025), and while restructuring has reduced costs, persistently high cash burn and delayed realization of cost savings may challenge the timeline to profitability and negatively affect future earnings.
  
• The shift in revenue mix to a higher proportion of nonrecurring deployment and hardware revenues (more than doubling to €2.5 million), resulting in a 12-point drop in gross margin to 61%, suggests ongoing margin volatility and potential difficulty in sustaining high-margin recurring SaaS growth, ultimately pressuring net margins.
  
• Macro pressures in core markets, particularly reduced affordability and pricing constraints in Australian private healthcare, have already led to the loss of a large, albeit low-margin, customer; further industry-wide budget cuts or slower digital adoption in healthcare could limit recurring revenue growth and overall addressable market.
  
• Sales cycles remain "ridiculously long," with ongoing elongation due to complex security requirements and slow procurement processes in large health systems; any sustained delays or failures in major deployments, especially from mature but still-unconverted pipeline opportunities, could slow revenue conversion and upsell rates.
  
• The company's heavy reliance on a limited number of large clients and major partnerships (e.g., with Baxter) exposes it to significant revenue risk if key contracts or partnerships underperform, are further delayed, or do not convert at expected rates, amplifying revenue volatility and business concentration risk.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of A$0.419 for Oneview Healthcare based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$0.58, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just A$0.34.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €28.9 million, earnings will come to €2.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 141.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.3%.
  
• Given the current share price of A$0.24, the analyst price target of A$0.42 is 42.7% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.