AI at crossroads

Two AI themed Narratives and a watchlist this week, plus a bonus Narrative from payments.

IREN - From Recommended Voice Blackgoat.
Argues the moat holds through the Neocloud sell off and the founder compensation noise, and that the upside is still intact.
ARM - From emerging author HedgeY.
Makes the case that the AGI CPU opportunity opens a market large enough to re-rate the stock rather than just grow it.
AI's Hidden Toll Booths · Watchlist - From artoflosing, on the boring layer of the AI.
Twenty picks and shovels names spanning grid, packaging and cooling.
Fiserv · Bonus - From Substack writer Hidden_Rock_Capital.
Argues this beaten down name is priced for the worst while new management cleans up a business far stickier than the price implies.

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Karthik_Selva

The Energy Constraint

Two Narratives and a watchlist this week on companies that sit on the routes power and fuel travel, rather than on the sources themselves, plus a bonus Narrative on a memory equipment maker.

Archrock - From Emerging Author composite32. AI needs power, power needs gas, and gas needs compression. Explains why that last link runs through Archrock, and the moat it has built there.
Advanced Energy - From Emerging Author John Eric. This power conversion equipment maker is posting record numbers, and the author goes deep into the filings to work out how much margin of safety is left at current prices. Still firing, but cautiously.
The New Energy Flow · Watchlist - From Jake_Merritt, thirty global companies sitting on the routes power and fuel actually travel, spanning grid equipment, cables, gas, nuclear fuel, shipping and cooling.
Lam Research · Bonus - From New Author Isidrohg. A favourite memory name, and the author sets out what separates it from the rest, arguing the order book holds up whether the shortage persists or resolves.

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Karthik_Selva

10d

Regulation Is The Moat

Two Narratives and a watchlist this week on companies whose edge comes from rules rather than products, plus a bonus Narrative on a misread music catalogue.

Copart - From Top Author WealthAP. The market is fixated on flattening growth, but argues the yard and permit network it has built is hard to replicate, and pairs that moat with international expansion to make the case for upside.
ASML - From Emerging Author Ivoed. China's foray into DUV has created jitters, and says the sell-off is overdone with demand still growing. The risk is export-restricted EUV eventually being produced in China.
The Permission Moat · Watchlist - From Darius_John, 20 US companies whose most valuable asset isn't a product or a patent, but a permission competitors can't easily get.
Universal Music · Bonus - From New Author FundamentalContrarianInvestor. Argues the market is pricing last quarter's miss as permanent damage, and builds a detailed case for upside on the durability of the labels it holds.

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Karthik_Selva

17d

Following The Big Funds

Two Narratives and a watchlist this week on stocks the well-known funds have been buying, plus a bonus Narrative on a mispriced marketplace.

ServiceNow - From Emerging Author Andrei. Part of the SaaS turnaround story, and argues the workflow layer won't be made redundant by AI but becomes more valuable because of it.
Vistra - From Emerging Author John Eric. Starts with rising earnings against a falling share price last quarter, and sees an accounting quirk the market is misreading as the case for a re-rating.
Superinvestor Buys · Watchlist - From Steve_Investor, 25 companies across sectors that more than one fund manager has added in recent quarters.
EverQuote · Bonus - From Emerging Author HarishPK. Argues the market is pricing a cyclical ad business when it's really an insurance marketplace, and runs a Monte Carlo on the fundamentals to build the bull case.

👍🧠🤡

Karthik_Selva

24d

After The Earnings

Two earnings Narratives and a watchlist this week, plus a bonus Narrative on the driverless debate.

Meta - From Top Author tripledub. An update after the latest earnings, argues it is becoming an infrastructure bet where the ad moat matters less to the valuation, and lowers his buy limit.
Voyager Technologies - From Emerging Author Talos. Tracks a small defence contractor turning into an orbit company, and sees the backlog and new financing options making the case for a re-rating.
Q2 2026 - Outlook Shift · Watchlist - From Jake_Merritt, 25 companies where the market moved on the outlook rather than the posted numbers.
Uber · Bonus - From Emerging Author Ivoed. Best numbers yet against a driverless overhang, and argues staying indispensable to those companies is enough to justify a modest discount.

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