Alcon Inc.

NYSE:ALC Stok Raporu

Piyasa değeri: US$33.1b

Alcon Gelecekteki Büyüme

Future kriter kontrolleri 2/6

Alcon kazanç ve gelirin sırasıyla yıllık 18.1% ve 6% oranında artacağı tahmin edilmektedir. EPS'nin yıllık 18.9% oranında büyümesi beklenmektedir. Özkaynak kârlılığının 3 yıl içinde 8.9% olacağı tahmin edilmektedir.

Anahtar bilgiler

18.1%

Kazanç büyüme oranı

18.89%

EPS büyüme oranı

Medical Equipment kazanç büyümesi16.1%
Gelir büyüme oranı6.0%
Gelecekteki özkaynak getirisi8.92%
Analist kapsamı

Good

Son güncelleme21 May 2026

Gelecekteki son büyüme güncellemeleri

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Mar 17

Alcon Buy Rating Reaffirmed, Despite Failed STAAR Merger, As Eyecare Portfolio Leads

Summary Alcon is reaffirmed as a buy, supported by robust macro demand in eyecare and a strong product pipeline despite abandoning the STAAR Surgical acquisition. ALC demonstrates potential resilience versus market shocks, with favorable balance sheet risk and positive EPS forecasts for FY26. While ALC lags peers in some profitability metrics and offers only an annual 0.43% dividend, its low payout ratio and dividend growth provide some support to the dividend case. My price forecast anticipates +48% upside by FY26, with Wall St. consensus also bullish, though execution risk and cost inflation remain key risks. The risk of price shocks in petroleum was also considered as a risk factor, considering the role of petroleum-derived products. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 04

Alcon: An Eyecare Leader With Strong Profit Margins, But Overheated Valuation

Summary Alcon is downgraded to a hold from my buy rating in fall 2023, after it has gone up +18% since then and now appears overvalued with a 48x earnings multiple. The firm has a strong profit margin vs its sector, low debt/equity vs a key peer Bausch & Lomb, and investment-grade credit ratings. Its positive cashflow growth should help sustain its dividend. Some risks in this sector are product recalls and supply-chain disruptions, as past events have shown us. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 04

Alcon Q2: Positive News From Unity VCS/CS And AR-15512

Summary I reiterate a 'Strong Buy' rating for Alcon with a one-year price target of $115 per share, driven by new product pipelines and FDA clearances. Alcon's Unity VCS/CS systems received FDA clearance, set for U.S. commercialization in 2025, enhancing their competitive edge in cataract and vitreoretinal surgery markets. Alcon's partnership with Ocumension in China will leverage local distribution and manufacturing to expand their dry eye treatment business, including Systane Ultra and AR-15512. Despite some U.S. market challenges, I project Alcon to achieve 7% organic revenue growth, supported by product innovation and strategic acquisitions. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 01

Alcon: Trading At An Undeserved Premium Valuation

Summary Global eye care giant Alcon, Inc. has seen its stock rise some 30% since its late October lows. The company is delivering solid, but hardly spectacular revenue growth, and is seeing much better free cash flow. The stock now trades at a significant valuation premium to the overall market. Is that premium valuation deserved? An analysis of Alcon follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 14

Alcon Q1: Robust Product Pipeline Drives Future Growth (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Alcon has experienced robust Q1 growth, driven by double-digit growth in vision care, particularly in the contact lens market. The company's strong revenue growth is attributed to successful product launches, such as TOTAL30 and DAILIES TOTAL1, which have helped Alcon gain market share. Alcon's FY24 forecast shows potential for increased free cash flow, strong revenue growth in vision care, and growth opportunities in the surgical business. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 10

Alcon: Buy An Eyecare Leader With $2 Billion In Quarterly Sales

Summary Alcon gets a Buy Rating today, in line with Wall Street consensus. Strengths include earnings growth, share price crossover below 200-day average, outperformance vs. the S&P500 index, and the company's strong cash position. Offsetting factors include a high valuation and poor dividend yield. The downside risk of debt levels was also addressed. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 26

Alcon: Lackluster Growth Given Its Valuation

Summary Alcon stock is currently trading at over 30x earnings, which is considered high for a company not expected to deliver EPS above 20 - 25% in the next few years. Despite the high trading multiple, Alcon has a strong business model and is a leader in the eye care industry, with recent positive developments in its product line and services. Alcon's share price is currently inflated due to hopes of significant free cash flow being diverted to shareholders, but I suggest this optimism may be misplaced and recommend a hold rating for the company. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 27

Alcon: The Steady Force Of 'Boring'

Summary Alcon is expected to outpace market growth and gain market share in the surgical and vision care sectors, with growth driven by factors such as the increasing global aging population and rise in myopia. Along with Costco, Aon, and Marsh & McLennan, Alcon is another "boring" investment in my portfolio. Alcon's focus on R&D, product innovation, and accelerated free cash flow generation contribute to a positive outlook, earning a "Buy" rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 13

Alcon reached $199M settlement with J&J Surgical Vision

Eye care company Alcon (NYSE:ALC) has reached a settlement with J&J Surgical Vision on its pending legal proceedings related to femtosecond laser assisted cataract surgery devices. The parties have exchanged cross-licenses of certain intellectual property and other mutually agreed covenants and releases, as part of the settlement. In addition, Alcon (ALC) has agreed to make a one-time payment of $199M to J&J Surgical Vision for those rights and to resolve various worldwide IP disputes relating to this matter.
Seeking Alpha • Feb 01

Alcon: Case Of Growth Destructive To Value, Reiterate Hold At 24x Earnings

Summary A firm creates value when its return on invested capital exceeds its cost of capital. If it doesn't, regardless of its expansion, growth will become destructive to shareholder value. This has been the case for Alcon Inc. over the past few years. Hence, despite a breakout above long-term resistance, we believe there's no mispricing on offer. Net-net, reiterate Alcon Inc. hold at 24x earnings. Investment summary Participating as an equity investor over the broad healthcare spectrum requires unique insights. This could come from [but is not limited to] industry experience, investing experience, managing a portfolio or basket of healthcare securities, or a combination of all three. Nevertheless, the core principles of understanding what constitutes a good equity investment remain the same. I'm going to run through the underlying framework we took with re-evaluating Alcon Inc. (ALC) after our last publication in September last year [see it here]. Back then, we rated Alcon Inc. a hold, asking for the stock to break its longer-term downtrend. This happened in December, and shares are up ~13%. So, it's worth sharing the deeper fundamental analysis we undertook in rating it a hold. We'd note there's scope for the stock to re-rate higher. However, net-net, we reiterate Alcon Inc. stock as a hold for long biased, long-term, fundamental healthcare investors. Exhibit 1. ALC breakout above long-term resistance Data: Updata Underlying concepts in ALC analysis Growth, free cash flow and return on capital - the tripod of success Companies want to grow at a specified, yet non-linear growth into perpetuity. Investors want a piece of that growth, but only at a "fair" price, to maximize the upside. The questions being, what is fair, and what is the opportunity cost. For mature companies, the growth profile is harder to come by, not in the least related to sheer size. Mauboussin (2021) quotes theoretical physicist Geoffrey West, who compares the "sigmoidal growth" of companies to that of mammals - after birth, the focus is on expending energy on growth. After time, this molds to a focus on maintenance. It's no different for companies in their mature stage of their lifecycle. Still, there are a number of ways a company can evolve and expand efficiently, from adding new products, increasing productivity, reducing capital intensity, or decompressing margins. Within this mix, there's also many subcomponents. For instance, Mckinsey & Co. (2017) illustrate that companies focusing on developing new products or services are most likely to see high top-bottom line growth. There's a caveat to this, however. Not all growth is created equally, and all growth comes at a cost. As an investor, there's also an accounting reality, and an economic one. A firm creates economic value when it generates a return on its investments above the cost of capital, other words, an economic profit ("EP"). There's a major difference between accounting profit [that in which is presented on the periodic financial statements] and a firm's EP. As investors, we're interested in EP over the former, as a cleaner measure of value. Why? It comes down the mechanics that drive value in the first place: a high return on invested capital ("ROIC"), that exceeds the cost of capital [positive EP], is the quintessential ingredient in the valuation recipe. It means a firm needs to reinvest lower portion of post-tax earnings to grow. It also illustrates it is investing well. Net-net, this means more residual cash [free cash flow, or FCF] is left for equity holders ("FCFE") - the cornerstone of corporate valuation. Charlie Munger, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, say's it well: "There are two kinds of businesses: The first earns 12%, and you can take it out at the end of the year. The second earns 12%, but all the excess cash must be reinvested - there's never any cash. It reminds me of the guy who looks at all of his equipment and says, 'There's all of my profit.' We hate that kind of business." The key thematic of this analysis: if ROIC is less than the cost of capital, then growth is actually destructive to value. Remember this for later. Alas, accounting profit does a poor job in capturing the hidden cost to equity holders - i.e., the reinvestment of post-tax earnings required to achieve a stated growth rate. Moreover, typical calculations of FCF miss the actual free cash flows that are distributable to equity holders. As a result, 'equity earnings' are often misrepresentative, and FCF is often overstated. It's also worth noting that companies with growth rates less than their ROIC can payout cash [either hypothetical, or in dividends/buybacks] to shareholders without jeopardizing growth. The market values Economic Profit, so it should The above preamble in mind, you'll be able to see in the following charts why we continue to see ALC as a hold. Don't get us wrong here - it's great company, with products in the same steed. Plus, it's growing operating income and earnings at an attractive rate. It's the questions of value and fair price that has us on the sidelines. Here's the premise of the value component: (1). First off, ALC is profitable and is steadily growing with decent operating margins above the sector median. Since listing, its stock has caught a decent bid as well. Looking at rolling TTM periods from Q1 FY20-Q3 FY22', ALC generated a cumulative $3.6Bn in net operating profit after tax ("NOPAT") and ~$2.4Bn in earnings [Exhibit 2]. This corresponded with an additional growth of $793mm and $388mm, respectively. Exhibit 2. ALC NOPAT and Earnings growth, FY20-FY22' [rolling TTM basis]. Note: Rolling TTM basis is used to provide an 11 period lookback, where each period is 12 months. (Data: Author, using data from ALC SEC Filings) (2). The returns on these numbers are impressive, as well. To achieve the above growth rates, it only had to invest an additional $492mm in capital, otherwise, 13.4% and 20.7% of NOPAT and earnings respectively. Consequently, it grew 21.5% over the testing period [33.35% of earnings]. As such, the return on incremental invested capital is high at >161%. The market values this kind of growth, hence, unsurprisingly, its stock price compounded at ~17% over time as well. As such, 79% of earnings has been distributable to equity holders. Exhibit 3. Substantial ROIIC from 13.4% reinvestment rate Data: Author, using data from ALC SEC Filings (3). As mentioned earlier, if a company sports a high ROIC, it can create value for shareholders. But remember, this only applies if the EP spread is positive, otherwise, the growth erodes the value to equity holders. You'll see in Exhibit 4 that, since Q3 FY21 at least, ALC has generated a ROIC less than the hurdle rate. Consequently, whilst it's been able to grow at a high rate, because its periodic ROIC [shown in Exhibit 2] haven't been accretive to its corporate or equity value. In fact, we postulate it's been value-destructive. This is in contrast with the incremental ROIC stated in Exhibit 3. Since Q3 FY21', ALC stock has re-rated heavily to the downside as a reflection of this [Exhibit 5]. Exhibit 4. Negative EP since FY21' Data: Author, using data from ALC SEC Filings Exhibit 5. Data: Updata (4). It's also worth noting that, when a firm grows faster than its ROIC, it must access external capital to fill the gap - either debt or equity (Mauboussin 2014; 2022). Because this is the case for ALC, we'd note that ALC priced a $1.3Bn debt offering last November. The issue, set in two tranches, will pay $600mm at a 5.375% coupon and $600mm at 5.750%, due in 2052. Per the release: "Net proceeds from the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and to repay all or part of the outstanding indebtedness under its term loan facility."

Kazanç ve Gelir Büyüme Tahminleri

NYSE:ALC - Analistlerin gelecek tahminleri ve geçmiş finansal verileri (USD Millions )
TarihGelirKazançlarSerbest Nakit AkışıFaaliyetlerden NakitAvg. Analist Sayısı
12/31/202812,5771,6132,0052,80315
12/31/202711,8251,3801,8252,51322
12/31/202611,1291,0851,4712,22222
3/31/202610,6348191,5912,305N/A
12/31/202510,4019801,6082,271N/A
9/30/202510,1851,0471,3802,072N/A
6/30/202510,0251,0731,4152,095N/A
3/31/20259,9251,1201,4532,120N/A
12/31/20249,9111,0181,4072,077N/A
9/30/20249,7611,1611,2782,069N/A
6/30/20249,6361,1021,0861,849N/A
3/31/20249,5621,0487771,644N/A
12/31/20239,4559745351,388N/A
9/30/20239,2744505251,282N/A
6/30/20239,0853623171,157N/A
3/31/20238,8803414801,236N/A
12/31/20228,717335-131,217N/A
9/30/20228,695571-611,259N/A
6/30/20228,657457-171,273N/A
3/31/20228,550460-4061,255N/A
12/31/20218,2913761651,345N/A
9/30/20218,0823323221,397N/A
6/30/20217,8181833071,307N/A
3/31/20216,922-390364949N/A
12/31/20206,833-531256823N/A
9/30/20206,806-717132730N/A
6/30/20206,836-63662677N/A
3/31/20207,525-604275920N/A
12/31/20197,508-656N/A920N/A
9/30/20197,386-638N/A800N/A
6/30/20197,280-779N/A886N/A
3/31/20197,177-362N/A893N/A
12/31/20187,153-227N/A1,140N/A
9/30/20187,123175N/A1,375N/A
12/31/20176,792256N/A1,218N/A
12/31/20166,596-170N/A1,245N/A
12/31/20156,776308N/A1,370N/A

Analist Gelecek Büyüme Tahminleri

Kazançlar ve Tasarruf Oranları: ALC 'nin tahmini kazanç büyümesi (yıllık 18.1% ) tasarruf oranının ( 3.5% ) üzerindedir.

Kazançlar ve Piyasa: ALC şirketinin kazançlarının (yıllık 18.1% ) US pazarından (yıllık 16.8% ) daha hızlı büyümesi öngörülüyor.

Yüksek Büyüme Kazançları: ALC şirketinin kazançlarının artması bekleniyor, ancak önemli ölçüde.

Gelir ve Pazar: ALC şirketinin gelirinin (yıllık 6% ) US pazarından (yıllık 11.7% ) daha yavaş büyümesi öngörülüyor.

Yüksek Büyüme Geliri: ALC şirketinin gelirinin (yıllık 6% ) yıllık 20% oranından daha yavaş büyümesi öngörülüyor.

Hisse Başına Kazanç Büyüme Tahminleri

Gelecekteki Özkaynak Getirisi

Gelecekteki ROE: ALC 'nin Özsermaye Getirisi'nin 3 yıl içinde düşük olması tahmin ediliyor ( 8.9 %).

Büyüyen şirketleri keşfedin

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Şirket Analizi ve Finansal Veri Durumu

VeriSon Güncelleme (UTC saati)
Şirket Analizi2026/05/22 11:37
Gün Sonu Hisse Fiyatı2026/05/22 00:00
Kazançlar2026/03/31
Yıllık Kazançlar2025/12/31

Veri Kaynakları

Şirket analizimizde kullanılan veriler S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC'den alınmıştır. Bu raporu oluşturmak için analiz modelimizde aşağıdaki veriler kullanılmıştır. Veriler normalize edilmiştir, bu da kaynağın mevcut olmasından kaynaklanan bir gecikmeye neden olabilir.

PaketVeriZaman ÇerçevesiÖrnek ABD Kaynağı *
Şirket Finansalları10 yıl
  • Gelir tablosu
  • Nakit akış tablosu
  • Bilanço
Analist Konsensüs Tahminleri+3 yıl
  • Finansal tahminler
  • Analist fiyat hedefleri
Piyasa Fiyatları30 yıl
  • Hisse senedi fiyatları
  • Temettüler, Bölünmeler ve Eylemler
Sahiplik10 yıl
  • En büyük hissedarlar
  • İçeriden öğrenenlerin ticareti
Yönetim10 yıl
  • Liderlik ekibi
  • Yönetim Kurulu
Önemli Gelişmeler10 yıl
  • Şirket duyuruları

* ABD menkul kıymetleri için örnek, ABD dışı için eşdeğer düzenleyici formlar ve kaynaklar kullanılmıştır.

Belirtilmediği sürece tüm finansal veriler yıllık bir döneme dayanmaktadır ancak üç ayda bir güncellenmektedir. Bu, İzleyen On İki Ay (TTM) veya Son On İki Ay (LTM) Verileri olarak bilinir. Daha fazla bilgi edinin.

Analiz Modeli ve Kar Tanesi

Bu raporu oluşturmak için kullanılan analiz modelinin ayrıntılarına GitHub sayfamızdan ulaşabilirsiniz, ayrıca raporlarımızı nasıl kullanacağınızı anlatan kılavuzlarımız ve Youtube'da eğitim videolarımız da bulunmaktadır.

Simply Wall St analiz modelini tasarlayan ve oluşturan dünya standartlarındaki ekip hakkında bilgi edinin.

Endüstri ve Sektör Metrikleri

Sektör ve bölüm metriklerimiz Simply Wall St tarafından her 6 saatte bir hesaplanmaktadır, sürecimizin ayrıntıları Github'da mevcuttur.

Analist Kaynakları

Alcon Inc. 58 Bu analistlerden 23, raporumuzun girdisi olarak kullanılan gelir veya kazanç tahminlerini sunmuştur. Analistlerin gönderimleri gün boyunca güncellenmektedir.

AnalistKurum
null nullArgus Research Company
null nullBaird
Jeffrey JohnsonBaird