Shell Midstream Partners, L.P.

NYSE:SHLX Stok Raporu

Piyasa değeri: US$6.2b

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

Shell Midstream Partners Gelecekteki Büyüme

Future kriter kontrolleri 1/6

Shell Midstream Partners şirketinin gelirinin yıllık 1.9% oranında düşmesi, yıllık kazançlarının ise yıllık 13.7% oranında artması bekleniyor. EPS'nin yıllık 6.6% oranında büyümesi bekleniyor.

Anahtar bilgiler

13.7%

Kazanç büyüme oranı

6.63%

EPS büyüme oranı

Oil and Gas kazanç büyümesi11.3%
Gelir büyüme oranı-1.9%
Gelecekteki özkaynak getirisin/a
Analist kapsamı

Low

Son güncellemen/a

Gelecekteki son büyüme güncellemeleri

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Jul 21

Shell Midstream Partners declares $0.30 dividend

Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE:SHLX) declares $0.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 8.32% Payable Aug. 12; for shareholders of record Aug. 2; ex-div Aug. 1. See SHLX Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 12

Shell Midstream Going Private Gives Investors A Low-Risk Opportunity

Shell Midstream Partners has had terrible stock price results since its 2014 IPO. The limited partnership must be judged by industry economics. At present, conditions are such that the company is likely to perform strongly on the market. The upward trajectory of the stock price means that the company’s general partner and controlling shareholder is likely to have to pay a large premium on its first proposal to take the company private. Shell Midstream Partners, L.P. (SHLX) is likely to go private within the next 12 months, as the energy sector privatizes its midstream limited partnerships. Given the industry's economics at present, the company's share price is on an upward trend that will persist regardless of what happens with its market status. That puts shareholders in a strong position to earn a huge premium on Shell's (SHEL) first proposal. This is a very low-risk opportunity for investors. Shell Midstream Partners' Assets Shell Midstream Partners LP was formed by Shell on March 19, 2014. It operates pipeline and other midstream and logistics assets through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shell Midstream Operating LLC, or through direct ownership. 2021 10-K The company's assets can be categorized as being of three forms: Crude oil and refined products pipelines and terminals that transport crude oil to the Gulf Coast and Midwest and transport refined products from there to major demand centers; Storage tanks and financing receivables for the staging and transportation of intermediate and finished products; Natural gas and refinery gas pipelines that serve the Gulf Coast. The geographical distribution of the company's assets is shown in the map below. "Overview of Assets", Shell Midstream Partners LP Explaining Past Dismal Historic Stock Performance Since its initial public offering ((IPO)), when the Shell Midstream Partners' LP opened at $32 per share, the company's stock price performance has returned a compound return of over -9.6% per year, destroying shareholder value. Google Finance Asset Growth Effects Midstream limited partnerships (MLPs) were popular a decade ago, because of their high dividend yields (Shell Midstream Partners has a dividend yield of 8.42%) in a low interest rate environment. Investors placed a bet on stable stock prices and high dividend yield, delivering them healthy positive returns. In 2014, Shell Midstream Partners had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 422! Investors were hungry for MLPs. What they did not account for was the possibility of equity prices nose-diving. The company's dismal performance is reflective of the performance of the energy sector since the Great Recession of 2008. For example, over the last five years, the MSCI World Energy Index has returned 5.34%, compared to 7.67% for the MSCI World Index. Not only has energy underperformed the broad market, energy has made its gains with higher risks, with the MSCI World Energy Index having a Sharpe Ratio of 0.29 in that 5-year period, compared to 0.46 for the MSCI World Index. The energy sector is one in which the major drivers of returns are asset growth effects: asset growth is inversely related to future returns in an environment in which no firm has pricing power, and everyone is instead forced to grow their assets when the price is high and rising, and contract assets when prices are declining. This can be seen from the company's own results: between 2014 and 2021, the company dramatically scaled assets from $730 million to over $2.3 billion. Capital Flight This general pattern was a result of MLPs following the general economics of energy firms. The industry is, famously, one of boom and bust cycles. Between 2006 and 2014, the sector's total debt grew from $1 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Annual capital expenditure in the 2000 and 2013 period more than doubled. As assets grew, so did excess supply. Yet, at the midpoint of the decade, oil fell from $100 per barrel (bbl), to less than $28/bbl in 2016. Oil wells were rendered unprofitable, and many producers found themselves struggling. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2015, more than 80% of the U.S. oil industry's operating cash flow was used for debt servicing. Capital expenditure was reduced by half as firms strove to improve their cash position and profitability. In the years 2016 and 2017, 300 American oil firms went bankrupt, 250,000 jobs were lost, and $250 billion in capital was destroyed. Annual capital expenditure plunged from $800 billion in 2014 to less than $500 billion in the years 2016 to 2019. The industry has also suffered a flight of capital as ESG investors have abandoned the market. For instance, since October 2021, the Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP, the Netherlands' pension fund for government employees, has been selling off its energy positions regardless of their profitability. Not only are investors leaving the industry, but firms within the industry are being pushed to reorient their activity away from oil & gas. For example, Engine No. 1 defeated Exxon Mobil's (XOM) management in a bid to shift the company toward renewables. Energy Inertia A leading narrative driving capital flight has been that fossil fuels are on their way out and that the industry is headed toward a doomsday scenario. Yet, this narrative ignores reality. As the chart from the International Energy Agency shows, oil and gas remain the two primary sources of energy, with the share of gas growing sharply between 1971 and 2019. International Energy Agency Rather than rapid energy transformation, the world is characterized by energy inertia. Supply-Side Shocks Have Changed the Market Despite the company's terrible stock price performance, its financial results have been positive. Although returns on invested capital ((ROIC)) in 2014 were a very low 3.04%, by 2015, they were 29.3%. However, they fell sharply from then to 2020, when they bottomed at 13.8%. In 2021, ROIC was 14.2% and stands at 14.5% today. The company has turned a corner thanks to global energy markets going on a strong bull run, due to a combination of supply-side shocks such as the pandemic, the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the industry's capital discipline has kept production stable.
Seeking Alpha • Feb 02

Shell Midstream: Prime Assets, Subprime Valuation

Shell midstream has grappled with operational issues in the past 12 months. The asset base is excellent, but the valuation fully prices this in. We do admire what we are buying and found a way to put in a good bid.
Seeking Alpha • Nov 22

Shell Midstream Partners: Higher Distributions Would Do More Harm Than Good

Even though Shell Midstream Partners reduced their distributions only a few months ago, management has already flagged the potential for higher unitholder returns, including higher distributions. Whilst this sounds exciting, they have minimal scope to fund significantly higher distributions without eroding their margin of safety. When looking towards 2022 and beyond, they should have distribution coverage of approximately 130% but with almost no capital expenditure and, thus, no growth outlook. If they were to push their distributions higher, the higher risks would likely further suppress their unit price as investors worry of another reduction and thus do more harm than good. I am still maintaining my very bullish rating due to the very high desirability of their current very high 10%+ distribution yield.
Seeking Alpha • Sep 15

Shell Midstream Partners: Time To Buy With Dust Now Settling, Intrinsic Value 30%+ Higher

Shell Midstream Partners finally reduced their distributions by a large 35% after sustaining them throughout the turmoil of 2020. Although tempting to blame Covid-19, it was actually due to the upcoming higher distributions payable to their general partner, Royal Dutch Shell. Now that they are rebased lower, they are safe and sustainable with strong coverage and a strong financial position. Even without seeing any future growth, their intrinsic value appears at least 30%+ higher with very favorably skewed results from a Monte Carlo Simulation. Since this provides investors a desirable opportunity to generate alpha as they tread water, I believe that upgrading to a very bullish rating is now appropriate.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 29

Shell Midstream Cuts The Distribution

The distribution cut largely conforms to market expectations. A plan to properly use the cash flow in the business is needed. Management needs to show results before the units respond to the management framework. The coming preferred conversion will raise the amount of distribution cash needed each quarter. The distribution is solid. But there are better opportunities for income investors until management has a clear-cut strategy for the retained cash.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 27

Shell Midstream: Post Distribution Cut, Still A Wait And See

Shell Midstream finally took its medicine, cutting the distribution by roughly 30%. Long expected by nearly every midstream analyst, the partnership finally broke down and made a move that they needed to. Post cut purchases often work out pretty well in midstream, but there are several rough quarters ahead. I'd advise sitting on one's hands and waiting for a better deal.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 19

Shell Midstream Partners: High Stakes For Their 13% Yield Heading Into Their Q2 Earnings

The distributions of Shell Midstream Partners face high stakes heading into their second-quarter earnings with them remaining risky. Whilst they saw a solid first quarter of 2021, the bigger issue is their lack of clear direction regarding how they intend to utilize their future free cash flow. Management continues to repeatedly talk about growth, but never provides any details, which creates uncertainty that hangs over their units and keeps investors guessing. Whilst they have outlined a cost reduction strategy, it does not move the needle for their free cash flow or financial position. Disappointingly, uncertainty still remains since my previous article, but at least their very high 13% distribution yield compensates and thus I am still maintaining my bullish rating.

Kazanç ve Gelir Büyüme Tahminleri

NYSE:SHLX - Analistlerin gelecek tahminleri ve geçmiş finansal verileri (USD Millions )
TarihGelirKazançlarSerbest Nakit AkışıFaaliyetlerden NakitAvg. Analist Sayısı
12/31/20235476497607232
12/31/20225796036817071
6/30/2022553489588602N/A
3/31/2022552503591603N/A
12/31/2021556508601612N/A
9/30/2021545533619636N/A
6/30/2021527541625647N/A
3/31/2021499520633654N/A
12/31/2020481452623650N/A
9/30/2020477421618642N/A
6/30/2020492403645668N/A
3/31/2020493359574609N/A
12/31/2019503381559597N/A
9/30/2019520397555597N/A
6/30/2019548404529577N/A
3/31/2019556398498548N/A
12/31/2018525330458507N/A
9/30/2018509294401454N/A
6/30/2018478237368425N/A
3/31/2018461209369425N/A
12/31/2017470231374432N/A
9/30/2017535225468527N/A
6/30/2017495219430482N/A
3/31/2017470226421473N/A
12/31/2016453220383429N/A
9/30/2016346215274307N/A
6/30/2016360219282313N/A
3/31/2016353191N/A283N/A
12/31/2015486162N/A396N/A

Analist Gelecek Büyüme Tahminleri

Kazançlar ve Tasarruf Oranları: SHLX 'nin tahmini kazanç büyümesi (yıllık 13.7% ) tasarruf oranının ( 2% ) üzerindedir.

Kazançlar ve Piyasa: SHLX şirketinin kazançlarının (yıllık 13.7% ) US pazarından (yıllık 16.8% ) daha yavaş büyümesi öngörülüyor.

Yüksek Büyüme Kazançları: SHLX şirketinin kazançlarının artması bekleniyor, ancak önemli ölçüde.

Gelir ve Pazar: SHLX şirketinin gelirinin önümüzdeki 3 yıl içinde düşmesi bekleniyor (yılda -1.9% ).

Yüksek Büyüme Geliri: SHLX şirketinin gelirinin önümüzdeki 3 yıl içinde düşmesi öngörülüyor (yılda -1.9% ).

Hisse Başına Kazanç Büyüme Tahminleri

Gelecekteki Özkaynak Getirisi

Gelecekteki ROE: SHLX 'un Özsermaye Getirisi'nin 3 yıl içinde yüksek olmasının öngörülüp öngörülmediğini belirlemek için yeterli veri yok

Büyüyen şirketleri keşfedin

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Şirket Analizi ve Finansal Veri Durumu

VeriSon Güncelleme (UTC saati)
Şirket Analizi2022/10/19 19:02
Gün Sonu Hisse Fiyatı2022/10/18 00:00
Kazançlar2022/06/30
Yıllık Kazançlar2021/12/31

Veri Kaynakları

Şirket analizimizde kullanılan veriler S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC'den alınmıştır. Bu raporu oluşturmak için analiz modelimizde aşağıdaki veriler kullanılmıştır. Veriler normalize edilmiştir, bu da kaynağın mevcut olmasından kaynaklanan bir gecikmeye neden olabilir.

PaketVeriZaman ÇerçevesiÖrnek ABD Kaynağı *
Şirket Finansalları10 yıl
  • Gelir tablosu
  • Nakit akış tablosu
  • Bilanço
Analist Konsensüs Tahminleri+3 yıl
  • Finansal tahminler
  • Analist fiyat hedefleri
Piyasa Fiyatları30 yıl
  • Hisse senedi fiyatları
  • Temettüler, Bölünmeler ve Eylemler
Sahiplik10 yıl
  • En büyük hissedarlar
  • İçeriden öğrenenlerin ticareti
Yönetim10 yıl
  • Liderlik ekibi
  • Yönetim Kurulu
Önemli Gelişmeler10 yıl
  • Şirket duyuruları

* ABD menkul kıymetleri için örnek, ABD dışı için eşdeğer düzenleyici formlar ve kaynaklar kullanılmıştır.

Belirtilmediği sürece tüm finansal veriler yıllık bir döneme dayanmaktadır ancak üç ayda bir güncellenmektedir. Bu, İzleyen On İki Ay (TTM) veya Son On İki Ay (LTM) Verileri olarak bilinir. Daha fazla bilgi edinin.

Analiz Modeli ve Kar Tanesi

Bu raporu oluşturmak için kullanılan analiz modelinin ayrıntılarına GitHub sayfamızdan ulaşabilirsiniz, ayrıca raporlarımızı nasıl kullanacağınızı anlatan kılavuzlarımız ve Youtube'da eğitim videolarımız da bulunmaktadır.

Simply Wall St analiz modelini tasarlayan ve oluşturan dünya standartlarındaki ekip hakkında bilgi edinin.

Endüstri ve Sektör Metrikleri

Sektör ve bölüm metriklerimiz Simply Wall St tarafından her 6 saatte bir hesaplanmaktadır, sürecimizin ayrıntıları Github'da mevcuttur.

Analist Kaynakları

Shell Midstream Partners, L.P. 11 Bu analistlerden 3, raporumuzun girdisi olarak kullanılan gelir veya kazanç tahminlerini sunmuştur. Analistlerin gönderimleri gün boyunca güncellenmektedir.

AnalistKurum
Brian ZarahnBarclays
Derek WalkerBofA Global Research
Ryan LevineCitigroup Inc