Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Sep 27
Senior EVP & CCO exercised options to buy US$192k worth of stock. On the 23rd of September, Joe West exercised options to buy 6k shares at a strike price of around US$11.32, costing a total of US$73k. This transaction amounted to 11% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since March 2022, Joe's direct individual holding has increased from 49.01k shares to 57.84k. Company insiders have collectively bought US$237k more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Buying Opportunity • Sep 21
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 15%. The fair value is estimated to be US$38.96, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 128% in a year. Earnings is forecast to grow by 223% in the next year. Buying Opportunity • Aug 25
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 9.5%. The fair value is estimated to be US$38.96, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 128% in a year. Earnings is forecast to grow by 223% in the next year. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 04
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from US$297.8m to US$254.6m. EPS estimate fell from US$1.73 to US$1.54 per share. Net income forecast to grow 200% next year vs 9.8% growth forecast for Banks industry in the US. Consensus price target up from US$32.67 to US$34.67. Share price was steady at US$30.66 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 29
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.48 (up from US$0.48 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: US$38.3m (down 3.3% from 2Q 2021). Net income: US$11.7m (flat on 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 31% (up from 30% in 2Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 13%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 147%, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 12% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 2% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 21
Upcoming dividend of US$0.13 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 June 2022. Payment date: 15 July 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.9%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.2%). Recent Insider Transactions • Jun 09
Independent Director recently bought US$300k worth of stock On the 3rd of June, Michael Havard bought around 10k shares on-market at roughly US$28.60 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought US$64k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jun 08
Senior EVP & CCO exercised options to buy US$253k worth of stock. On the 4th of June, Joe West exercised options to buy 9k shares at a strike price of around US$11.32, costing a total of US$100k. This transaction amounted to 18% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since March 2022, Joe has owned 49.01k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$135k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • May 07
Insider recently sold US$235k worth of stock On the 5th of May, Deborah Dinsmore sold around 8k shares on-market at roughly US$28.70 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • May 05
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$276.8m to US$285.2m. EPS estimate increased from US$1.47 to US$1.65 per share. Net income forecast to grow 135% next year vs 2.6% growth forecast for Banks industry in the US. Consensus price target of US$33.67 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.7% to US$28.75 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 29
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.43 (up from US$0.41 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: US$37.5m (up 4.8% from 1Q 2021). Net income: US$10.6m (up 5.7% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 28% (in line with 1Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 34%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 106%, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Board Change • Apr 27
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 4 experienced directors. 7 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Reagan Reaud was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 24
Upcoming dividend of US$0.13 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 March 2022. Payment date: 15 April 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 36% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.7%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%). Reported Earnings • Mar 01
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: US$1.46 (up from US$1.07 in FY 2020). Revenue: US$151.3m (up 25% from FY 2020). Net income: US$35.6m (up 35% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 24% (up from 22% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Net interest margin (NIM): 3.31% (down from 3.73% in FY 2020). Cost-to-income ratio: 75.6% (up from 64.2% in FY 2020). Non-performing loans: 0.78% (down from 0.82% in FY 2020). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 15%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 77%, compared to a 5.8% growth forecast for the banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 03
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$253.4m to US$267.6m. EPS estimate increased from US$1.15 to US$1.32 per share. Net income forecast to grow 44% next year vs 7.1% decline forecast for Banks industry in the US. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$34.33. Share price fell 7.6% to US$28.53 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jan 29
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: US$1.46 (up from US$1.07 in FY 2020). Revenue: US$153.2m (up 26% from FY 2020). Net income: US$35.6m (up 35% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 23% (up from 22% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 15%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 65%, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the banks industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 24
Upcoming dividend of US$0.13 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 December 2021. Payment date: 14 January 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 26% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.3%). Price Target Changed • Nov 12
Price target increased to US$32.00 Up from US$29.33, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 7.6% above last closing price of US$29.73. Stock is up 35% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$1.94 for next year compared to US$1.06 last year. Price Target Changed • Oct 30
Price target decreased to US$29.33 Down from US$31.67, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 7.8% above last closing price of US$27.20. Stock is up 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$1.72 for next year compared to US$1.06 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 30
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.59 (vs US$0.26 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$41.7m (up 47% from 3Q 2020). Net income: US$14.4m (up 125% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 35% (up from 23% in 3Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 10% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 23
Upcoming dividend of US$0.13 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 September 2021. Payment date: 15 October 2021. Trailing yield: 2.0%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%). Reported Earnings • Jul 31
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.48 (vs US$0.087 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$39.6m (up 57% from 2Q 2020). Net income: US$11.7m (up 441% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 30% (up from 8.6% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 10% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 23
Upcoming dividend of US$0.13 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 June 2021. Payment date: 15 July 2021. Trailing yield: 1.9%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.3%). Major Estimate Revision • May 05
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate increased from US$1.41 to US$1.66. Revenue forecast unchanged at US$143.0m. Net income forecast to grow 37% next year vs 7.1% growth forecast for Banks industry in the US. Consensus price target of US$32.33 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at US$31.60 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 03
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.41 (vs US$0.30 in 1Q 2020) The company reported a strong first quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$35.8m (up 14% from 1Q 2020). Net income: US$10.0m (up 33% from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 28% (up from 24% in 1Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 7% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Price Target Changed • Apr 10
Price target increased to US$32.00 Up from US$29.67, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of US$32.04. Stock is up 78% over the past year. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 24
Upcoming dividend of US$0.13 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 March 2021. Payment date: 15 April 2021. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%). Reported Earnings • Mar 01
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS US$1.07 (vs US$2.03 in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$123.7m (down 15% from FY 2019). Net income: US$26.4m (down 48% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 21% (down from 35% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year whereas the company’s share price has remained flat. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Mar 01
Revenue and earnings beat expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 0.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 16%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 13%, compared to a 18% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 24
New 90-day high: US$29.03 The company is up 25% from its price of US$23.18 on 25 November 2020. The American market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Banks industry, which is up 24% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$26.95 per share. Reported Earnings • Jan 30
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS US$1.07 (vs US$2.03 in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$123.7m (down 15% from FY 2019). Net income: US$26.4m (down 48% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 21% (down from 35% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Net interest margin (NIM): 3.73% (down from 4.42% in FY 2019). Cost-to-income ratio: 64.2% (up from 58.3% in FY 2019). Non-performing loans: 0.82% (up from 0.04% in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Jan 30
Revenue and earnings beat expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 0.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 16%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 13%, compared to a 17% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 23
New 90-day high: US$28.70 The company is up 44% from its price of US$19.88 on 23 October 2020. The American market is up 15% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Banks industry, which is up 30% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$28.41 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 07
New 90-day high: US$27.71 The company is up 50% from its price of US$18.43 on 08 October 2020. The American market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Banks industry, which is up 26% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$28.79 per share. Price Target Changed • Dec 29
Price target raised to US$26.67 Up from US$22.00, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. The new target price is close to the current share price of US$26.26. As of last close, the stock is down 16% over the past year. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 24
Upcoming Dividend of US$0.10 Per Share Will be paid on the 15th of January to those who are registered shareholders by the 31st of December. The trailing yield of 1.5% is below the top quartile of American dividend payers (4.0%), and is lower than industry peers (2.9%). Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Dec 18
Senior EVP exercised options to buy US$222k worth of stock. On the 15th of December, Robert Pigott exercised options to buy 8.83k shares at a strike price of around US$11.32, costing a total of US$100k. This transaction amounted to 16% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since March 2020, Robert has owned 55.95k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively bought US$2.9m more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 16
New 90-day high: US$24.62 The company is up 51% from its price of US$16.34 on 16 September 2020. The American market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Banks industry, which is up 23% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$27.77 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 11
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 19% share price gain to US$21.87, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 18.9x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 15.9x. This compares to an average P/E of 11x in the Banks industry in the US. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 21%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 04
New 90-day high: US$19.90 The company is up 21% from its price of US$16.45 on 06 August 2020. The American market is up 2.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Banks industry, which is up 4.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$23.31 per share. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Oct 30
Third-quarter earnings released: Revenue and earnings beat expectations Third-quarter revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 0.3% at US$35.7m. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 1.3% at US$0.26. Revenue is forecast to grow 15% over the next year, compared to a 18% growth forecast for the Banks industry in the US. Reported Earnings • Oct 30
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of US$28.8m, down 45% from the prior year. Total revenue was US$122.7m over the last 12 months, down 17% from the prior year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 08
New 90-day high: US$18.17 The company is up 3.0% from its price of US$17.56 on 10 July 2020. The American market is up 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Banks industry, which is up 6.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$24.15 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 22
New 90-day low: US$15.00 The company is down 23% from its price of US$19.36 on 24 June 2020. The American market is up 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Banks industry, which is down 3.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$23.70 per share.