Saudi Energy CompanySASE:5110 Stok Raporu

Specialized Sector Valuation: Residual Income (RI) ModelYou pointed out the importance of fair value assuming a 3-year horizon based on Residual Income. This is the most accurate sectoral model for utilities, calculated as follows:$$V_0 = BV_0 + \sum_{t=1}^{n} \frac{NI_t - (r_e \times BV_{t-1})}{(1 + r_e)^t}$$ Where:$BV_0$: Current Book Value per share (~19.5 SAR).$NI_t$: Expected Net Income.$r_e$: Target Cost of Equity, assumed at 8.0% given the defensive nature of the company.Residual Income = Net Income - (Cost of Equity × Book Value).Application to SEC:Due to the Mudaraba instrument and regulatory constraints, the company's ROE is roughly 3.5% to 4.5%, which is lower than the Cost of Equity ($r_e = 8\%$).Since $ROE < r_e$, the "Residual Income" is technically negative. This is the precise scientific and logical explanation for why the stock currently trades at (16.73 SAR), which is below its book value (19.5 SAR). The market discounts this difference.Fair Value in 3 Years (2029):Expecting slight operational efficiency improvements (smart meters and green financing), and assuming ROE stabilizes at 5.5% while maintaining the fixed payout policy (0.70 SAR), the fair value calculated using the RI model for the next 3 years centers in the range of 17.80 to 18.50 SAR.