New Risk • Dec 03
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 76% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 76% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€42.3m market cap, or US$44.6m). New Risk • Nov 01
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next year. Trailing 12-month net loss: €27m Forecast net loss in 1 year: €6.5m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable next year (€6.5m net loss next year). Market cap is less than US$100m (€42.1m market cap, or US$45.6m). Price Target Changed • Sep 11
Price target increased by 8.3% to €6.50 Up from €6.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €6.40. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €2.11 next year compared to a net loss per share of €2.87 last year. New Risk • Jul 23
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of French stocks, typically moving 6.7% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.7% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€41.4m market cap, or US$45.0m). Reported Earnings • Apr 19
Full year 2023 earnings released: €2.89 loss per share (vs €0.12 profit in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: €2.89 loss per share (down from €0.12 profit in FY 2022). Revenue: €229.1m (flat on FY 2022). Net loss: €18.8m (down €19.6m from profit in FY 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 140 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. New Risk • Apr 08
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable next year (€8.8m net loss next year). Market cap is less than US$100m (€42.3m market cap, or US$45.9m). Reported Earnings • Sep 22
First half 2023 earnings released: €0.89 loss per share (vs €0.34 profit in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: €0.89 loss per share (down from €0.34 profit in 1H 2022). Revenue: €121.0m (up 1.6% from 1H 2022). Net loss: €5.82m (down 362% from profit in 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 112 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. New Risk • Aug 14
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of French stocks, typically moving 9.2% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.2% average weekly change). Minor Risks High level of debt (48% net debt to equity). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Market cap is less than US$100m (€41.7m market cap, or US$45.7m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 28
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 24% After last week's 24% share price gain to €5.66, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Chemicals industry in France. Total loss to shareholders of 26% over the past three years. New Risk • Jun 15
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of French stocks, typically moving 6.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (48% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.4% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Market cap is less than US$100m (€28.7m market cap, or US$31.1m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to €4.57, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Chemicals industry in France. Total loss to shareholders of 44% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • May 11
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from €0.659 to €0.58. Revenue forecast unchanged from €241.1m at last update. Net income forecast to grow 376% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in France. Consensus price target down from €8.50 to €7.10. Share price rose 2.1% to €3.88 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 10
Price target decreased by 14% to €7.10 Down from €8.30, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 82% above last closing price of €3.91. Stock is down 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.66 for next year compared to €0.12 last year. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €8.30 Down from €9.90, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 77% above last closing price of €4.68. Stock is down 30% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.26 for next year compared to €0.03 last year. Buying Opportunity • Oct 13
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 18%. The fair value is estimated to be €5.24, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.8% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 54% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 27
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from €0.33 to €0.28. Revenue forecast unchanged from €234.8m at last update. Net income forecast to grow 1,153% next year vs 2.9% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in France. Consensus price target down from €10.80 to €9.90. Share price fell 2.4% to €4.49 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 26
Price target decreased to €9.90 Down from €11.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 121% above last closing price of €4.48. Stock is down 34% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.33 for next year compared to €0.03 last year. Buying Opportunity • Sep 08
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 6.9%. The fair value is estimated to be €5.89, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.8% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 52% per annum over the same time period. Buying Opportunity • Jun 10
Now 22% undervalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days. The fair value is estimated to be €6.45, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 8.8% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 2,059% in the next 2 years. Buying Opportunity • May 12
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 15%. The fair value is estimated to be €6.37, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 8.8% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 2,059% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 27
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from €0.37 to €0.33. Revenue forecast unchanged from €237.0m at last update. Net income forecast to grow 1,397% next year vs 20% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in France. Consensus price target of €11.00 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 8.5% to €5.14 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 16
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: €0.03 (down from €1.70 in FY 2020). Revenue: €226.6m (down 15% from FY 2020). Net income: €195.0k (down 98% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 0.1% (down from 3.4% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 100%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 4.6%, compared to a 22% growth forecast for the industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 60% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 22
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from €0.25 to €0.33. Revenue forecast unchanged at €237.0m. Net income forecast to shrink 61% next year vs 15% decline forecast for Chemicals industry in France. Consensus price target up from €10.02 to €10.50. Share price rose 6.2% to €5.84 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 14
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to €5.50, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 43x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Chemicals industry in France. Total loss to shareholders of 8.3% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Feb 02
Price target decreased to €10.50 Down from €12.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 80% above last closing price of €5.84. Stock is down 41% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.0079 for next year compared to €1.70 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 29
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to €7.50, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 67x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Chemicals industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 23% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Sep 22
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.37 (vs €1.92 in 1H 2020) The company reported a poor first half result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €117.6m (down 16% from 1H 2020). Net income: €2.46m (down 72% from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 2.1% (down from 6.3% in 1H 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 97% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Sep 21
Price target increased to €12.00 Up from €10.50, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 73% above last closing price of €6.92. Stock is up 21% over the past year. Price Target Changed • Jul 27
Price target decreased to €10.50 Down from €11.60, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 56% above last closing price of €6.72. Stock is up 5.0% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall to €0.075 The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from €240.0m to €233.0m. EPS estimate also fell from €0.096 to €0.075. Net income forecast to shrink 87% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in France . Consensus price target down from €11.60 to €10.50. Share price was steady at €6.72 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 06
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate increased from €0.059 to €0.096. Revenue forecast unchanged at €240.0m. Net income forecast to shrink 83% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in France . Consensus price target of €11.60 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.2% to €6.98 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 17
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS €1.70 (vs €0.64 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €267.5m (up 11% from FY 2019). Net income: €9.22m (up €12.2m from FY 2019). Profit margin: 3.4% (up from net loss in FY 2019). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 94% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 26
New 90-day high: €11.30 The company is up 69% from its price of €6.68 on 28 October 2020. The French market is up 15% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 23
New 90-day high: €8.90 The company is up 56% from its price of €5.70 on 24 September 2020. The French market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 21
New 90-day high: €8.66 The company is up 3.0% from its price of €8.42 on 23 July 2020. The French market is flat over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is down 5.0% over the same period. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 23
Analysts increase EPS estimates to €0.46 The 2020 consensus revenue estimate increased from €240.9m to €256.0m. The company is forecast to report a profit instead of a loss, with analysts raising their EPS forecasts from -€0.63 to €0.46 for the same period. The Chemicals industry in France is expected to see an average net income growth of 3.7% next year. The consensus price target increased from €7.00 to €8.30. Share price is up 10.0% to €5.72 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 19
First half earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of €189.0k, down 94% from the prior year. Total revenue was €251.8m over the last 12 months, largely unchanged from the prior year. Price Target Changed • Sep 19
Price target raised to €8.30 Up from €7.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. The new target price is 32% above the current share price of €6.28. As of last close, the stock is up 26% over the past year.