Duyuru • Apr 16
Redrow plc Announces Matthew Pratt Steps Down as CEO, Effective 30 June 2025 Barratt Redrow plc announced that, with the operational integration of Barratt and Redrow nearing completion, Matthew Pratt will be stepping down from his position as Redrow Chief Executive on 30 June 2025. New Risk • Jul 13
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.7% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 15
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.05 per share at 3.8% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 22 February 2024. Payment date: 08 April 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% and the cash payout ratio is 87%. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Lower than top quartile of German dividend payers (5.1%). In line with average of industry peers (4.1%). Declared Dividend • Feb 09
First half dividend of UK£0.05 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of UK£0.05. Ex-date: 22nd February 2024 Payment date: 8th April 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (39% earnings payout ratio) but not adequately covered by cash flows (92% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 41% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 4.1% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Feb 08
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.19 (vs UK£0.46 in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: UK£0.19 (down from UK£0.46 in 1H 2023). Revenue: UK£756.0m (down 27% from 1H 2023). Net income: UK£60.0m (down 60% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 7.9% (down from 14% in 1H 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 27
Now 20% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 29% to €6.85. The fair value is estimated to be €5.70, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 20%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 2.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to decline by 13% per annum over the same time period. Duyuru • Dec 19
Redrow plc Appoints Beth Ford as Company Secretary Redrow plc announced that Beth Ford will be appointed as the Group Company Secretary with effect from the 31 December 2023 following the retirement of Graham Cope. Beth is a Chartered Company Secretary and Chartered Governance Professional and is a Fellow of The Chartered Governance Institute. She has over 10 years corporate governance and listed company experience.Beth has been involved in significant corporate transactions during her career and has held a variety of roles of increasing responsibility within the company secretarial and governance field. Beth is currently the Group's Deputy Company Secretary and joined Redrow in 2017 from Amec Foster Wheeler plc. Prior to this, she worked at Eversheds Sutherland LLP where she provided company secretarial and governance services to a wide range of clients. Duyuru • Nov 18
Redrow plc to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Sep 11, 2024 Redrow plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Sep 11, 2024 New Risk • Nov 16
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of German stocks, typically moving 6.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 15% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.4% average weekly change). Duyuru • Nov 11
Redrow plc Provides Earnings Guidance for the year 2024 Redrow plc announced that the company continue to expect results to be in the guidance range they gave in September 2023 of revenue between £1.65 billion and £1.7 billion and profit before tax of between £180 million and £200 million. However, with the lower than anticipated sales rate due to the more subdued Autumn housing market they are more likely to be towards the lower end of the range. Due to improved timing of affordable legal completions, the company now expect the revenue profile for the current financial year to be more evenly split than originally anticipated, with 45% in the first half and 55% in the second half. Duyuru • Sep 14
Redrow plc Re-Introduces Earnings Guidance for 2024 Redrow plc is re-introduced earnings guidance for the year 2024. For the year 2024, guidance based on a sales rate in line with Fiscal Year 2023 of 0.46 per outlet per week: Revenue to be £1.65 billion to £1.7 billion. EPS to be c41 pence. Reported Earnings • Sep 14
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.91 (vs UK£0.58 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: UK£0.91 (up from UK£0.58 in FY 2022). Revenue: UK£2.13b (flat on FY 2022). Net income: UK£298.0m (up 51% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 14% (up from 9.2% in FY 2022). Revenue is expected to decline by 3.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Consumer Durables industry in Germany are expected to grow by 6.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Jun 24
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 1.1%. The fair value is estimated to be €6.33, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 3.7%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 4.6% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 9.0% per annum over the same time period. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 16
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.10 per share at 6.2% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 23 February 2023. Payment date: 06 April 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 59% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 6.2%. Within top quartile of German dividend payers (4.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.7%). Reported Earnings • Feb 10
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.46 (vs UK£0.48 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: UK£0.46 (down from UK£0.48 in 1H 2022). Revenue: UK£1.03b (down 2.0% from 1H 2022). Net income: UK£150.0m (down 8.5% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 14% (down from 16% in 1H 2022). Revenue is expected to decline by 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Consumer Durables industry in Germany are expected to grow by 5.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 4% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Duyuru • Feb 10
Redrow plc to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Sep 13, 2023 Redrow plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Sep 13, 2023 Duyuru • Nov 19
Redrow plc to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Feb 09, 2023 Redrow plc announced that they will report first half, 2023 results on Feb 09, 2023 Recent Insider Transactions • Oct 11
Senior Independent Director recently bought €56k worth of stock On the 4th of October, Andrew Hewson bought around 12k shares on-market at roughly €4.85 per share. This transaction amounted to 44% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger purchase worth €123k. Insiders have collectively bought €197k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 28
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 16% share price decline to €4.60, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Total loss to shareholders of 26% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €8.67 per share. Reported Earnings • Sep 15
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.58 (vs UK£0.74 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: UK£0.58 (down from UK£0.74 in FY 2021). Revenue: UK£2.14b (up 10% from FY 2021). Net income: UK£197.0m (down 22% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 9.2% (down from 13% in FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year. Buying Opportunity • Sep 15
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 5.3%. The fair value is estimated to be €6.84, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 2.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 5.9%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.9% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 12% per annum over the same time period. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 17
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.10 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 24 February 2022. Payment date: 08 April 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.0%. Within top quartile of German dividend payers (3.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.2%). Reported Earnings • Feb 12
First half 2022 earnings: EPS in line with analyst expectations despite revenue beat First half 2022 results: EPS: UK£0.48 (up from UK£0.41 in 1H 2021). Revenue: UK£1.05b (up 1.1% from 1H 2021). Net income: UK£164.0m (up 16% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 16% (up from 14% in 1H 2021). The increase in margin was primarily driven by lower expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.7%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 11%, compared to a 7.3% growth forecast for the industry in Germany. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Board Change • Nov 16
High number of new directors Independent Non-Executive Chairman Richard Akers was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. Reported Earnings • Sep 17
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS UK£0.74 (vs UK£0.33 in FY 2020) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: UK£1.94b (up 45% from FY 2020). Net income: UK£254.0m (up 125% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 13% (up from 8.4% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 25% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Executive Departure • Sep 17
Non-Executive Chairman John Tutte has left the company On the 15th of September, John Tutte's tenure as Non-Executive Chairman ended after 19.2 years in the role. As of June 2021, John still personally held 417.60k shares (€3.0m worth at the time). A total of 2 executives have left over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is 9.67 years. Board Change • Aug 01
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Non-Executive Director Richard Akers was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 05
New 90-day high: €6.90 The company is up 12% from its price of €6.16 on 04 December 2020. The German market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Consumer Durables industry, which is up 18% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €8.30 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 25
Non-Executive Chairman recently sold €2.5m worth of stock On the 23rd of February, John Tutte sold around 391k shares on-market at roughly €6.42 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. John has been a seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by €2.4m. Reported Earnings • Feb 12
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS UK£0.41 (vs UK£0.37 in 1H 2020) The company reported a solid first half result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. First half 2021 results: Revenue: UK£1.04b (up 20% from 1H 2020). Net income: UK£141.0m (up 10% from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 14% (down from 15% in 1H 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 12
Revenue beats expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 0.9%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 21%, compared to a 7.2% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 28
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 21% share price gain to UK£6.76, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 17.8x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 14.6x. This compares to an average P/E of 27x in the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Total return to shareholders over the past year is a loss of 23%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 28
New 90-day high: €6.76 The company is up 55% from its price of €4.37 on 29 September 2020. The German market is up 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Consumer Durables industry, which is up 19% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €8.61 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 11
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 24% share price gain to UK£5.86, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 16.4x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 13.2x. This compares to an average P/E of 28x in the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Total return to shareholders over the past year is a loss of 20%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 11
New 90-day high: €5.86 The company is up 21% from its price of €4.83 on 13 August 2020. The German market is flat over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Consumer Durables industry, which is up 10.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €6.98 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 09
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to UK£5.25, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 15.7x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 13.6x. This compares to an average P/E of 28x in the Consumer Durables industry in Germany. Total return to shareholders over the past year is a loss of 24%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 12
New 90-day high: €5.27 The company is up 5.0% from its price of €5.04 on 14 July 2020. The German market is up 2.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Consumer Durables industry, which is up 16% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €7.26 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 24
Executive Director recently bought €100k worth of stock On the 22nd of September, John Tutte bought around 25k shares on-market at roughly €3.99 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold €1.3m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 19
New 90-day low: €4.66 The company is down 11% from its price of €5.25 on 19 June 2020. The German market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Consumer Durables industry, which is up 14% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €4.94 per share. Reported Earnings • Sep 18
Full year earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of UK£113.0m, down 66% from the prior year. Total revenue was UK£1.34b over the last 12 months, down 37% from the prior year. Profit margins were 8.4%, which is lower than the 16% margin from last year. The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Duyuru • Sep 04
Redrow plc to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Final Results on Sep 16, 2020 Redrow plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2020 final results on Sep 16, 2020