Seeking Alpha • Aug 07

Atlanticus Holdings: The Market Is Pricing Mercury Before The Margins Fully Arrive

Summary Atlanticus’ Q2 strengthened the investment case. The company delivered an 89% increase in operating revenue, 66% EPS growth and approximately 26% organic managed-receivables growth excluding Mercury. The quarter did not solve every issue. Net interest margin remained below the prior-year level, operating expenses grew quickly, and part of the fair value benefit came from purchase price adjustments. The market is still betting that repricing and infrastructure consolidation will turn today’s scale into tomorrow’s margin expansion. Atlanticus has already proven that Mercury can make the company bigger. The next several quarters must prove that Mercury can make each dollar of capital more valuable. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Analysartikel • Jun 17

Atlanticus Holdings (ATLC) Stock Could Be 4.2% Overvalued After Macro Relief And Earnings Beats

Atlanticus Holdings (ATLC) is back in focus after a Trump administration peace deal paved the way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with lower Treasury yields and petrol prices that directly affect consumer lenders. See our latest analysis for Atlanticus Holdings. Against this backdrop, Atlanticus Holdings has gathered strong momentum, with a 22.52% 1 month share price return and a 78.75% 3 month share price return feeding into a 90.95% 1 year total shareholder return from a latest...

Analysartikel • Dec 17

Investors Still Aren't Entirely Convinced By Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's (NASDAQ:ATLC) Earnings Despite 26% Price Jump

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation ( NASDAQ:ATLC ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has...

Analysartikel • Jul 01

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's (NASDAQ:ATLC) Subdued P/E Might Signal An Opportunity

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.7x Atlanticus Holdings Corporation ( NASDAQ:ATLC ) may be sending very...

Seeking Alpha • Mar 27

Atlanticus Holdings: 9% Baby Bond Is Attractive For Income Investors

Summary Atlanticus Holdings showed significant growth in 2024, with operating revenue surpassing $1.3 billion and net income rising to $87 million. The company’s balance sheet strengthened, with loans growing to $2.63 billion and cash reserves nearing $500 million, enhancing shareholder equity. Despite economic risks, Atlanticus maintains strong liquidity with $800 million available, ensuring stability and ability to cover debt obligations. Baby bonds remain a solid investment, yielding over 9% to maturity, as Atlanticus is well-insulated from insolvency and can honor its debt payments. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Analysartikel • Mar 11

The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's (NASDAQ:ATLC) Earnings Yet As Shares Tumble 26%

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation ( NASDAQ:ATLC ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt...

Seeking Alpha • Feb 24

Atlanticus Holdings: Fully Priced At This Point

Summary Atlanticus Holdings' stock is now fully valued at 13x FWD earnings, leading me to downgrade my buy rating to hold. Q3 2024 earnings showed strong performance with a 19% revenue increase and 21% ROE, but these strengths are already priced in. Rising interest expenses and provisions for credit losses pose significant risks, especially given the company's subprime lending focus. The potential upside is limited at the current $60 share price, making the risk/reward less favorable than before. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Analysartikel • Nov 09

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's (NASDAQ:ATLC) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 28%

Despite an already strong run, Atlanticus Holdings Corporation ( NASDAQ:ATLC ) shares have been powering on, with a...

Seeking Alpha • Oct 07

Atlanticus Holdings: Subprime Still Shines

Summary Atlanticus Holdings remains a buy due to its high ROEs, solid growth prospects, and a cheap P/E ratio of 7.65x. The weaker economy benefits Atlanticus as more Americans fall into the subprime category, increasing demand for its credit services. The enhanced partnership with Synchrony boosts long-term growth by expanding Atlanticus' reach to more merchant partners and subprime borrowers. Shares are still a buy with a revised price target of $45. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Analysartikel • Jul 24

Market Might Still Lack Some Conviction On Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:ATLC) Even After 26% Share Price Boost

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation ( NASDAQ:ATLC ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last...

Analysartikel • May 21

Market Still Lacking Some Conviction On Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:ATLC)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4.8x Atlanticus Holdings Corporation ( NASDAQ:ATLC ) may be sending very...

Seeking Alpha • Mar 28

Atlanticus Holdings: A Cheap, High ROE Business

Summary Atlanticus Holdings Corporation is undervalued and has potential for steady growth and higher earnings. The company focuses on serving underserved consumers in the sub-prime market who have limited credit history. Atlanticus Holdings makes money through its Credit As A Service segment, offering customized credit cards and banking products to subprime borrowers. Shares are a buy with price target of $50. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Analysartikel • Feb 06

Investors Aren't Buying Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's (NASDAQ:ATLC) Earnings

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 6.4x Atlanticus Holdings Corporation ( NASDAQ:ATLC ) may be sending very...

Seeking Alpha • Oct 13

Atlanticus Holdings: Contrarian Opportunity

Summary Fears of recession, inflation, rising rates, and consumer defaults appear to have weighed heavily on Atlanticus’ share price. With the share price in the mid-$20s, down from above $90, we believe that this is a compelling risk vs. reward contrarian opportunity. Atlanticus is sitting on $20 per share of pro forma cash compared to a stock price of around $26 per share. In addition, Atlanticus is producing approximately $6 per share of earnings with imbedded peak default rates already factored in. All told, we see little downside below $20 per share and multiple of money upside. We have published extensively on Atlanticus (ATLC) starting a little over two years ago. These reports can be found here. Since the time of our introductory report on October 1, 2020, the stock is up 106% through today (October 10, 2022) compared to an 8% increase in the S&P 500. Of course, this does not tell the full story of this stock as, between these two dates, the stock reached an intraday high of over $90 per share before retreating to its current levels in the mid-$20s. During this time, Atlanticus’ share price and financial results were buoyed by both the rapid growth of its loan portfolio, as its direct and second look retail credit product offerings found acceptance in the marketplace, and defaults ran at historically low levels in part due to the large government stimulus programs that saw consumers flush with cash. During this period, the company also completed numerous other initiatives that created value for shareholders. More recently, as the market has become more risk-averse and macro headwinds have increased, the stock has languished. Background We encourage readers to read our introductory report mentioned above for more about Atlanticus’ business lines, but, essentially, Atlanticus is a technology-oriented subprime lender. It is the reincarnation of CompuCredit Corporation, Inc., founded in 1996, that ran into trouble in the 2008 financial crisis and had to dramatically restructure their business to avoid collapse. We believe that Atlanticus management, which owns over 50% of the company’s beneficial interests, has learned valuable lessons from this time and has positioned the company well to endure through challenging environments. We like to quote Mark Twain on this point in that “good judgment is the result of experience and experience the result of bad judgment”. We certainly believe that this is the case here. We believe that these learnings can be seen in Atlanticus’ significant cash position, its long-dated fixed rate financing facilities, and its approach to underwriting, servicing, and management of customer credit availability. Given the level of insider ownership, we also believe that management is highly aligned with the outside shareholders. The only area of concern for us in this area is that, given the current attractive share price, management may seek to enter into a transaction whereby they take Atlanticus private, or similar, at prices that may not reflect the full value of the company. We believe that this is mitigated, in part, by the company’s oft-stated optimism around the share price, which only a few months ago they claimed could be worth as much as $396 per share. For more information on Atlanticus, the company also publishes a helpful investor presentation on its website’s investor portal. Thesis We published our detailed internal projections for Atlanticus in a report dated January 4, 2021. We continue to believe that these projections, particularly from a cash perspective, reflect the earnings power of Atlanticus’ businesses of currently around $10 per share. On that note, Atlanticus’ cash generation has been consistently strong and generally in line with our projections. As a result, Atlanticus sits today with a pro forma cash position of over $400 million dollars. We look at this cash position on a pro forma basis as the company’s financing facilities provide them with revolving credit flexibility and, as of June 30, 2022, Atlanticus had $100 million undrawn on their most recently completed financing facility alone (which, reassuringly, was completed during a time of market dislocation). This translates to cash per fully diluted share of over $20. On the other hand, reported earnings have been more volatile as the company has been effectively “provisioning” their balance sheet for higher delinquencies than it has been experiencing. Management has repeatedly said in the MD&A sections of their public filings that they were using loss rate assumptions in the models they employ for their financial statement accounting that were higher than the levels actually being experienced due to macroeconomic uncertainty. We have discussed this repeatedly in our prior reports. For example, in the second quarter of 2022, we read that Atlanticus employed an “expected principal credit loss rate" of 31.2%. This compares to a realized “net charge-off ratio” of 19.0% for the same period. To put this in context, we calculate that the realized “net interest margin ratio” for this period was 21.7%, of which 12.2% (or more than half) effectively went to building reserves. Or, said differently, the realized margin appears to be twice that which was reported. We further note that, upon review of Atlanticus’ historical financials, we see that the company only briefly exceeded the 30% loss levels during the 2008-era financial collapse. In fact, the average credit losses for the 5 and 10 year periods prior to the pandemic were 18.9% and 19.3%, respectively, which is fairly consistent with the currently observed realized numbers. All of that said, in these unpredictable times, we cannot fault management for being conservative. However, we are encouraged that Atlanticus is able to generate $6 per share of run-rate earnings (based on the results from the second quarter of 2022) using historical peak default assumptions. Valuation We encourage readers to review our detailed report concerning our internal projections. The metric, to which we pay closest attention, is Level Free Cash Flow per Share. This metric attempts to quantify the cash flow being generated by the business before portfolio growth, after preferred dividends, adjusting for convertible instruments, and utilizing the fully diluted share count. We have been focused on this metric since the inception of our position as it helps us to eliminate some of the “noise” resulting from Atlanticus’ fairly complex accounting. It does not eliminate all of the noise, as we utilize the loan balances from the beginning and end of each period, which now are affected by management’s fair value adjustments (vs. in the past when we could simply exclude the separately presented provision) but have found it to be a more reliable indicator (and we have not sought to adjust the loan balances for the accumulated fair value adjustments, which would present this metric in a more favorable light). The ”noise” in Atlanticus’ GAAP earnings has stemmed from several sources, particularly, in prior periods before the company adopted fair value accounting, when the company has to post large upfront provision charges that swamped earnings given the rapid growth. In later period, as the company transitioned new originations and then the entire consumer portfolio (excluding its auto dealer lending business) to fair value, noise likewise existed. As set forth in our detailed projection report, we have been anticipating that the company should produce around $10 per share of level free cash flow per share. We continue to believe that this is a reasonable expectation. As noted above, the company is currently reporting around $6 per fully diluted share of GAAP earnings after incorporating what we view to be peak loss assumptions. In addition, the company has posted consistent year over year growth and, while the current environment is challenging from a delinquency standpoint, it should present the company with favorable opportunities. As such, we believe that an $80 price target (or $60 net of cash) is reasonable. This would require a 10x multiple of the above earnings or 6x multiple against level free cash flow. Risks We believe that the most significant risk the company faces are the macroeconomic risks that are in the headlines every day: inflation, rising rates, and the possibility (likelihood?) of recession. These risks would impact the company most severely in terms of credit losses above and beyond our, the market’s, and the company’s expectations. We believe there are several mitigants that should be considered here. First, are the company’s substantial margins. With a portfolio yield in excess of 40% and funding costs below 5%, there is quite a bit of room to absorb losses. Second, the company’s financial results already incorporate loss assumptions north of 30% (while they are currently actually below 20%), so, again here, there is room to absorb expanding losses. We also note that, upon our review of the company’s historical financials, the company experienced losses above 30% only in the aftermath of the 2008/2009 financial crisis, and these loss levels were short-lived, returning back to the long-term average in the high-teens (around where they are now). Thirdly, we believe the company has learned valuable lessons from their previous brush with collapse and will not make the same mistakes again (primarily by aggressively reducing their “open to buy” upon any customer weakness, as they have alluded to in their public filings). Lastly, we note that Atlanticus has continued to buy back stock, which we do not believe they would be doing if there were substantial concerns around performance. In addition, we have not observed any of the key management making any material stock sales (in fact, the chief accounting officer recently purchased some of the perpetual preferred stock). Like any financial company, a risk exists that rates will continue to rise materially, increasing Atlanticus' cost of funding and compressing their net interest margins. While this is certainly a concern, we note that the company’s financing facilities are primarily fixed rate and long-dated (perhaps a lesson learned) and, as discussed above, there is a substantial spread between their portfolio yield and interest cost to absorb widening of capital costs.

Snöflinga Score
Värdering	1/6
Framtida tillväxt	5/6
Tidigare resultat	3/6
Finansiell hälsa	2/6
Utdelningar	0/6

Historiska aktiekurser
Aktuell aktiekurs	US$93.50
52 veckors högsta	US$114.34
52 veckors lägsta	US$47.50
Beta	2.05
1 månads förändring	-5.80%
3 månaders förändring	22.51%
1 års förändring	53.91%
3 års förändring	161.61%
5 års förändring	84.09%
Förändring sedan börsintroduktionen	550.43%

	ATLC	US Consumer Finance	US Marknad
7D	-15.2%	-2.0%	0.09%
1Y	53.9%	5.1%	19.0%

ATLC volatility
ATLC Average Weekly Movement	7.9%
Consumer Finance Industry Average Movement	7.0%
Market Average Movement	7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.3%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

ATLC grundläggande statistik
Börsvärde	US$1.45b
Vinst(TTM)	US$144.78m
Intäkter(TTM)	US$730.47m

ATLC resultaträkning (TTM)
Intäkter	US$730.47m
Kostnad för intäkter	US$197.39m
Bruttovinst	US$533.08m
Övriga kostnader	US$388.31m
Intäkter	US$144.78m

Vinst per aktie (EPS)	9.54
Bruttomarginal	72.98%
Nettovinstmarginal	19.82%
Skuld/egenkapitalförhållande	850.3%

Uppgifter	Senast uppdaterad (UTC-tid)
Analys av företag	2026/08/11 17:15
Aktiekurs vid dagens slut	2026/08/11 00:00
Intäkter	2026/06/30
Årlig intjäning	2025/12/31

Paket	Uppgifter	Tidsram	Exempel US-källa
Företagets finansiella ställning	10 år	Resultaträkning Kassaflödesanalys Balansräkning	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analytikernas konsensusuppskattningar	+3 år	Prognos för finansiella poster Analytikernas prismål	Rapporter från analytiker Blue Matrix
Marknadspriser	30 år	Aktiekurser Utdelningar, splittar och åtgärder	ICE Marknadsdata SEC Form S-1
Ägarskap	10 år	Största aktieägare Insiderhandel	SEC Formulär 4 SEC Formulär 13D
Förvaltning	10 år	Ledningsgrupp Styrelse och verkställande direktörer	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Viktiga utvecklingstendenser	10 år	Företagsmeddelanden	SEC Formulär 8-K

Analytiker	Institution
Randy Binner	B. Riley Securities, Inc.
Harold Goetsch	B. Riley Securities, Inc.
Vincent Caintic	BTIG

Atlanticus Holdings (ATLC) Aktievy

Belöningar

Riskanalys

Analyst Price Targets

Mercury Integration And Receivable Expansion Will Reshape Near Prime Consumer Credit Over Time

Mercury Integration And Credit Risks Will Test Resilient Near Prime Demand Over Time

Mercury Integration And Repricing Will Transform Scale And Earnings Power Over The Next Cycle

Top Analyst Narratives

Mercury Integration And Receivable Expansion Will Reshape Near Prime Consumer Credit Over Time

Mercury Integration And Credit Risks Will Test Resilient Near Prime Demand Over Time

Mercury Integration And Repricing Will Transform Scale And Earnings Power Over The Next Cycle

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Konkurrenter

EZCORP

Encore Capital Group

Qfin Holdings

PROG Holdings

Prishistorik och prestanda

Senaste nyheter och uppdateringar

Atlanticus Holdings: The Market Is Pricing Mercury Before The Margins Fully Arrive

ATLC: Q2 Credit Trends And Mercury Performance Will Shape Forward Expectations

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Aug 06, 2026

ATLC: AI Underwriting And Mercury Deal Expected To Drive Future Upside

ATLC: AI Credit Platform And Buybacks Are Expected To Unlock Upside

Executive Chairman notifies of intention to sell stock

Recent updates

Atlanticus Holdings: The Market Is Pricing Mercury Before The Margins Fully Arrive

ATLC: Q2 Credit Trends And Mercury Performance Will Shape Forward Expectations

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Aug 06, 2026

ATLC: AI Underwriting And Mercury Deal Expected To Drive Future Upside

ATLC: AI Credit Platform And Buybacks Are Expected To Unlock Upside

Executive Chairman notifies of intention to sell stock

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation(NasdaqGS:ATLC) dropped from Russell 2500 Value Benchmark

ATLC: Fair Value View Balances AI Operating Leverage And Credit Risk

Atlanticus Holdings (ATLC) Stock Could Be 4.2% Overvalued After Macro Relief And Earnings Beats

Atlanticus Holdings Posts 87% Revenue Growth and Beats EPS Estimates After Mercury Acquisition

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15%

Price target increased by 9.7% to US$101

Mercury Integration And Receivable Expansion Will Reshape Near Prime Consumer Credit Over Time

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 07, 2026

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18%

Mercury Integration And Credit Risks Will Test Resilient Near Prime Demand Over Time

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15%

Mercury Integration And Repricing Will Transform Scale And Earnings Power Over The Next Cycle

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16%

Now 25% undervalued

Investors Still Aren't Entirely Convinced By Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's (NASDAQ:ATLC) Earnings Despite 26% Price Jump

Consensus revenue estimates increase by 15%

Price target increased by 13% to US$79.17

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (NasdaqGS:ATLC) acquired Mercury Financial LLC for approximately $160 million.

Independent Director recently sold US$125k worth of stock

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 25%

Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's (NASDAQ:ATLC) Subdued P/E Might Signal An Opportunity

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation(NasdaqGS:ATLC) dropped from Russell 2000 Growth-Defensive Index

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2025

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16%

Atlanticus Holdings: 9% Baby Bond Is Attractive For Income Investors

Independent Director recently sold US$126k worth of stock

Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17%

Price target increased by 9.3% to US$66.86

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Reports Net Charge-Offs for the Fourth Quarter Ended December 31, 2024

New major risk - Financial position

The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's (NASDAQ:ATLC) Earnings Yet As Shares Tumble 26%

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16%

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Atlanticus Holdings: Fully Priced At This Point

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of $50 million.

Price target increased by 15% to US$61.14

Price target increased by 12% to US$56.00

Chief Accounting Officer recently sold US$889k worth of stock

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17%

Price target increased by 13% to US$44.67

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's (NASDAQ:ATLC) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 28%

Atlanticus Holdings: Subprime Still Shines

Independent Director recently sold US$78k worth of stock

Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18%