New Risk • Aug 18
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 42% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Declared Dividend • Aug 17
Second quarter dividend of CA$0.05 announced Dividend of CA$0.05 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 29th September 2026 Payment date: 15th October 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.1%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (10% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (10% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 5.2% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 46% over the next year, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2026 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: CA$0.32 (up from CA$0.30 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: CA$154.8m (up 8.5% from 2Q 2025). Net income: CA$8.70m (up 8.5% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 5.6% (in line with 2Q 2025). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.9% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.1% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Tillkännagivande • Jul 09
Pollard Banknote Limited to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Aug 12, 2026 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results After-Market on Aug 12, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Jun 23
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.05 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 June 2026. Payment date: 15 July 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 20% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.1%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.7%). New Risk • Jun 02
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 4.5% Last year net profit margin: 6.9% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Board Change • Jun 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 2 experienced directors. 4 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Carmele Peter was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Declared Dividend • May 20
First quarter dividend of CA$0.05 announced Dividend of CA$0.05 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 30th June 2026 Payment date: 15th July 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.2%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (15% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (22% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 5.2% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 43% over the next year, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Major Estimate Revision • May 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 26% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from CA$633.7m to CA$623.9m. EPS estimate also fell from CA$2.04 per share to CA$1.50 per share. Net income forecast to grow 97% next year vs 27% growth forecast for Hospitality industry in Canada. Consensus price target down from CA$34.25 to CA$29.88. Share price fell 8.0% to CA$16.25 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 15
Price target decreased by 13% to CA$29.88 Down from CA$34.25, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 82% above last closing price of CA$16.40. Stock is down 16% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$1.69 for next year compared to CA$1.28 last year. New Risk • May 14
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 4.5% Last year net profit margin: 6.9% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: EPS: CA$0.13 (down from CA$0.43 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: CA$141.7m (down 3.1% from 1Q 2025). Net income: CA$3.50m (down 70% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 2.5% (down from 8.0% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 8.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 67%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.1% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Tillkännagivande • May 14
Pollard Banknote Limited Declares Cash Dividend for the Period from April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, Payable on July 15, 2026 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of CAD 0.05 per Common Share for the period from April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026. Payment will be made on July 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on June 30, 2026. Tillkännagivande • Apr 25
Pollard Banknote Limited Announces Retirement of Rob Rose as Executive Vice President, Finance, Effective December 31, 2026 Pollard Banknote Limited announced the planned retirement of Rob Rose from the role of Executive Vice President, Finance, effective December 31, 2026. Over the last thirty-one years, Mr. Rose has been an integral member of Pollard Banknote's executive management team, helping guide the Company through tremendous growth and strategic transformation with professionalism and steady leadership. An executive search process for his successor has commenced. Tillkännagivande • Apr 10
Pollard Banknote Limited to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 13, 2026 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results After-Market on May 13, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 27
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.05 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 March 2026. Payment date: 15 April 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 16% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.1%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.7%). Declared Dividend • Mar 13
Fourth quarter dividend of CA$0.05 announced Dividend of CA$0.05 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 31st March 2026 Payment date: 15th April 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.1%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (16% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (22% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 5.2% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 68% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Mar 11
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: CA$1.28 (down from CA$1.30 in FY 2024). Revenue: CA$596.0m (up 7.0% from FY 2024). Net income: CA$34.7m (down 1.6% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 5.8% (down from 6.3% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 15%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Tillkännagivande • Mar 11
Pollard Banknote Limited Announces Cash Dividend for the Period from January 1, 2026 to March 31, 2026, Payable on April 15, 2026 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.05 per Common Share for the period from January 1, 2026 to March 31, 2026. Payment will be made on April 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 31, 2026. Tillkännagivande • Feb 24
Pollard Banknote Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 14, 2026 Pollard Banknote Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 14, 2026. Tillkännagivande • Feb 12
Pollard Banknote Limited to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Mar 10, 2026 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results After-Market on Mar 10, 2026 New Risk • Jan 13
New minor risk - Insider selling There has been significant insider selling in the company's shares over the past 3 months. Total value of shares sold: CA$91k This is considered a minor risk. There are several reasons why an insider may be selling, including to cover a tax obligation or pay for some other expense. However, we generally consider it a negative if insiders have been selling, especially if they do so below the current price. It implies that they considered a lower price to be reasonable. This is a weak signal, but if there is a pattern of unexplained selling, it can be a sign the insider believes the company's stock is overpriced. Note: We only include open market transactions and private dispositions of directly owned stock by individuals, not by corporations or trusts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.6x net interest cover). Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.8% net profit margin). Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (CA$91k sold). Recent Insider Transactions • Jan 13
Executive VP of Legal Affairs recently sold CA$50k worth of stock On the 7th of January, Riva Richard sold around 3k shares on-market at roughly CA$20.00 per share. This transaction amounted to 32% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought CA$23k more than they sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Jan 11
Executive VP of Legal Affairs recently sold CA$50k worth of stock On the 7th of January, Riva Richard sold around 3k shares on-market at roughly CA$20.00 per share. This transaction amounted to 32% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought CA$23k more than they sold in the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 24
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.05 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 December 2025. Payment date: 15 January 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 19% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.0%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.6%). Declared Dividend • Nov 16
Third quarter dividend of CA$0.05 announced Dividend of CA$0.05 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 31st December 2025 Payment date: 15th January 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.0%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (5% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (57% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 5.2% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 61% over the next year, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: CA$0.38 (down from CA$0.67 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: CA$156.3m (up 2.0% from 3Q 2024). Net income: CA$10.3m (down 43% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 6.6% (down from 12% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 30%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.3% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 24% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Tillkännagivande • Nov 13
Pollard Banknote Limited Announces Cash Dividend for the Period from October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Payable on January 15, 2026 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.05 per Common Share for the period from October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025. Payment will be made on January 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on December 31, 2025. Tillkännagivande • Oct 09
Pollard Banknote Limited to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 12, 2025 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results After-Market on Nov 12, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.05 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 15 October 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 15% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.9%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.9%). Major Estimate Revision • Aug 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CA$605.2m to CA$597.3m. EPS estimate also fell from CA$1.96 per share to CA$1.74 per share. Net income forecast to grow 45% next year vs 23% growth forecast for Hospitality industry in Canada. Consensus price target down from CA$34.75 to CA$33.50. Share price fell 4.7% to CA$20.25 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Aug 17
Second quarter dividend of CA$0.05 announced Dividend of CA$0.05 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 15th October 2025 Dividend yield will be 1.0%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (7% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 5.2% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 34% over the next year, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Tillkännagivande • Aug 15
Pollard Banknote Limited announces Quarterly dividend, payable on October 15, 2025 Pollard Banknote Limited announced Quarterly dividend of CAD 0.0500 per share payable on October 15, 2025, ex-date on September 29, 2025 and record date on September 30, 2025. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: CA$0.30 (down from CA$0.44 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: CA$142.7m (up 3.5% from 2Q 2024). Net income: CA$8.02m (down 32% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.6% (down from 8.6% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 7.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 40%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 34% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Tillkännagivande • Jul 10
Pollard Banknote Limited to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 13, 2025 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results After-Market on Aug 13, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Jun 23
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.05 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 June 2025. Payment date: 15 July 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 14% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.9%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (6.1%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.8%). Declared Dividend • May 11
First quarter dividend of CA$0.05 announced Dividend of CA$0.05 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 30th June 2025 Payment date: 15th July 2025 Dividend yield will be 1.0%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (14% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 5.2% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 25% over the next year, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. New Risk • May 09
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.4x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • May 09
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2025 results: EPS: CA$0.43 (up from CA$0.26 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: CA$146.3m (up 16% from 1Q 2024). Net income: CA$11.7m (up 69% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 8.0% (up from 5.5% in 1Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 59%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 37% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Tillkännagivande • May 09
Pollard Banknote Limited announces Quarterly dividend, payable on July 15, 2025 Pollard Banknote Limited announced Quarterly dividend of CAD 0.0500 per share payable on July 15, 2025, ex-date on June 30, 2025 and record date on June 30, 2025. Tillkännagivande • Apr 11
Pollard Banknote Limited to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 07, 2025 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results After-Market on May 07, 2025 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 17
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to CA$21.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Hospitality industry in North America. Total loss to shareholders of 11% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CA$31.54 per share. Declared Dividend • Mar 14
Fourth quarter dividend of CA$0.05 announced Dividend of CA$0.05 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 31st March 2025 Payment date: 15th April 2025 Dividend yield will be 1.0%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (11% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (27% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 5.2% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 62% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Price Target Changed • Mar 12
Price target decreased by 11% to CA$36.25 Down from CA$40.75, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 72% above last closing price of CA$21.12. Stock is down 41% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$1.86 for next year compared to CA$1.30 last year. Reported Earnings • Mar 11
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: CA$1.30 (up from CA$1.17 in FY 2023). Revenue: CA$557.1m (up 7.0% from FY 2023). Net income: CA$35.2m (up 12% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 6.3% (up from 6.0% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 27%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.1% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.9% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 36% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Tillkännagivande • Mar 11
Pollard Banknote Limited Declares Cash Dividend for the Period from January 1, 2025 to March 31, 2025, Payable on April 15, 2025 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.05 per common share for the period from January 1, 2025 to March 31, 2025. Payment will be made on April 15, 2025 to shareholders of record on March 31, 2025. Tillkännagivande • Feb 25
Pollard Banknote Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2025 Pollard Banknote Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2025. Tillkännagivande • Feb 19
Pollard Banknote Limited to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Mar 10, 2025 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results After-Market on Mar 10, 2025 Tillkännagivande • Feb 14
Pollard Banknote Launches iLottery Solution in Kansas Pollard Banknote Limited announced that the Kansas Lottery on the successful launch of its iLottery program, powered by the Pollard Catalyst™ Gaming Platform, Pollard Banknote's cloud-native, modular, and API-first iLottery solution. The leadership and strong partnership of the Kansas Lottery, combined with Pollard Banknote's deep iLottery expertise, enabled today's launch to come only ten months after initial scoping, making this the fastest implementation of a full iLottery program in U.S. history. players in Kansas will be able to play popular draw-based games including Powerball® and Mega Millions®, and an initial offering of nine e Instant games from the Pollard Digital Games Studio on the Lottery's website. eInstants available at launch include Jayhawk Riches and Wildcat Riches, a pair of games customized for the market that celebrate the rivalry between the Kansas State University and University of Kansas athletic programs, and tie into the Rivalry Riches instant ticket currently in-market in Kansas. Additional draw-based games will be added soon, and new e Instant games will launch every two weeks to ensure the offerings remain fresh and exciting for Kansas players. The iLottery solution builds on the Lottery's existing PlayOn® Loyalty Program, Pollard Banknote's proprietary loyalty solution. Existing PlayOn® members can easily join in the fun by upgrading their existing loyalty accounts. The Lottery launched PlayOn® in 2017, enabling players to earn points by submitting their retail tickets and completing other activities. Points can be redeemed for chances to win cash, experiential prizes, or free plays. In addition to the features mentioned above, the turnkey iLottery solution includes a complete Player Account Management system that provides the functionality required for registration, age and identity verification, wallet transactions, and responsible gaming features. Geolocation services are provided through Pollard Banknote's proprietary GeoLocs™ technology. Pollard Banknote is additionally providing a suite of business services including marketing, draw operations, risk management, and a player support center. Since the Kansas Lottery's start up in November 1987, through June 30, 2024, lottery ticket sales have produced more than $2.2 billion in revenues transferred to the State of Kansas. In that same time period, nearly $4.4 billion worth of prizes have been paid to players, and retailers have earned more than $450 million in commissions. The Lottery's fiscal year 2024, which ended June 30, 2024, produced almost $338 million in sales and more than $88 million transferred to the State. Funds generated by the Kansas Lottery go toward supporting economic development initiatives, prison construction and maintenance projects, local juvenile detection facilities, problem gambling assistance, and the State General Fund. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 24
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.05 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 December 2024. Payment date: 15 January 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 11% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 0.9%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (6.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.5%). New Risk • Nov 21
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 1.9x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.9x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.1% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (CA$135k sold). Major Estimate Revision • Nov 20
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 20% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from CA$551.5m to CA$561.7m. EPS estimate increased from CA$1.50 to CA$1.79 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 4.1% next year vs 26% growth forecast for Hospitality industry in Canada . Consensus price target up from CA$35.75 to CA$38.50. Share price rose 6.7% to CA$25.29 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Nov 17
Third quarter dividend of CA$0.05 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.05. Ex-date: 31st December 2024 Payment date: 15th January 2025 Dividend yield will be 0.8%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.0%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 2%. Cash payout ratio: 25%. Price Target Changed • Nov 17
Price target increased by 7.7% to CA$38.50 Up from CA$35.75, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 49% above last closing price of CA$25.90. Stock is down 14% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$1.79 for next year compared to CA$1.17 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$0.67 (up from CA$0.29 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: CA$153.2m (up 19% from 3Q 2023). Net income: CA$18.2m (up 135% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 12% (up from 6.0% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 8.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 74%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.0% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.3% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 31% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Tillkännagivande • Nov 14
Pollard Banknote Limited Announces Dividend, Payable on January 15, 2025 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.05 per Common Share for the period from October 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024. Payment will be made on January 15, 2025 to shareholders of record on December 31, 2024. Tillkännagivande • Oct 24
Pollard Banknote Limited to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 13, 2024 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results After-Market on Nov 13, 2024 Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Oct 18
Insider exercised options to buy CA$156k worth of stock. On the 16th of October, Jennifer Westbury exercised options to buy 6k shares at a strike price of around CA$21.33, costing a total of CA$133k. This transaction amounted to 83% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since December 2023, Jennifer has owned 7.50k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively bought CA$170k more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Tillkännagivande • Oct 18
Pollard Banknote to Highlight Innovation At the World Lottery Summit 2024 Pollard Banknote Limited announced its participation at the 2024 World Lottery Summit (WLS) in Paris, France where it will demonstrate strategies to propel player journeys and showcase solutions designed to drive growth for lotteries and the good causes they support. As a Platinum Contributor, Pollard Banknote is also delighted to have the opportunity to speak to lottery innovation during the main stage presentation and panels. Pollard Banknote invites lottery professionals to explore its trade show booth from October 21 to 24 and discover how the Company delivers retail excellence, outstanding games, and digital innovation to its clients. The booth will feature engaging interactive product presentations and display stations, offering detailed information on retail strategies that enhance visibility as well as in-lane and self-serve solutions that ease the purchase process. Innovative scratch tickets, eInstant games, and omnichannel programs that demonstrate a commitment to building valuable player experiences will also be showcased. Additionally, attendees will learn more about Pollard Banknote's continuous investment in digital innovation, providing comprehensive solutions and strategies that maximize engagement and drive revenue. Pollard Banknote is also excited to present its own full-scale Omnichannel Gaming Solution powered by the cutting-edge technology of its Pollard CatalystTM Gaming Platform ("CatalystTM"). The solution is designed with exceptional flexibility and configurability to meet a variety of lottery technology and services needs across all channels of player engagement. It is a fully cloud-native, modular, and API-first solution that is uniquely positioned to revolutionize the lottery gaming systems space by leapfrogging legacy alternatives. The platform's modern design easily integrates with other solutions, accelerates roadmap development, and enables cutting-edge features such as fully automatic scalability, even during high-demand jackpot runs. CatalystTM delivers world-class user experiences for players and a 360-degree view of player data, which can be used to responsibly generate and personalize engagement. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 30
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to CA$27.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Hospitality industry in North America. Total loss to shareholders of 42% over the past three years. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 23
Executive VP of Legal Affairs recently sold CA$74k worth of stock On the 20th of September, Riva Richard sold around 3k shares on-market at roughly CA$24.66 per share. This transaction amounted to 20% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$1.2m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.05 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 15 October 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 13% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 0.8%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.4%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 29
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to CA$25.35, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Hospitality industry in North America. Total loss to shareholders of 44% over the past three years. New Risk • Aug 27
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Canadian stocks, typically moving 12% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Price Target Changed • Aug 27
Price target increased by 9.6% to CA$35.75 Up from CA$32.63, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 44% above last closing price of CA$24.90. Stock is down 6.2% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$1.50 for next year compared to CA$1.17 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 20
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 22% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from CA$1.29 to CA$1.57. Revenue forecast steady at CA$552.0m. Net income forecast to grow 18% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Hospitality industry in Canada. Consensus price target up from CA$32.63 to CA$34.75. Share price rose 17% to CA$22.00 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$0.44 (up from CA$0.28 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: CA$137.8m (up 5.8% from 2Q 2023). Net income: CA$11.9m (up 57% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 8.6% (up from 5.8% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 65%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.1% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.8% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 21% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Tillkännagivande • Aug 14
Pollard Banknote Announces Dividend for the Period from July 1, 2024 to September 30, 2024, Payable on October 15, 2024 Pollard Banknote Limited announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.05 per Common Share for the period from July 1, 2024 to September 30, 2024. Payment will be made on October 15, 2024 to shareholders of record on September 30, 2024. Price Target Changed • Aug 07
Price target decreased by 24% to CA$32.63 Down from CA$43.00, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 66% above last closing price of CA$19.61. Stock is down 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$1.29 for next year compared to CA$1.17 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 06
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 36% After last week's 36% share price decline to CA$18.35, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Hospitality industry in North America. Total loss to shareholders of 60% over the past three years. Tillkännagivande • Jul 30
Pollard Banknote Limited (TSX:PBL) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Clarence J. Venne, LLC for $12.6 million. Pollard Banknote Limited (TSX:PBL) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Clarence J. Venne, LLC for $12.6 million on July 29, 2024. The purchase price was funded from existing Pollard Banknote cash resources and availability under existing senior credit facilities. The Acquisition is expected to be accretive to Pollard Banknote’s net income and is not contingent on any approvals or financing. The transaction is expected to be completed on July 31, 2024. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 28
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to CA$28.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Hospitality industry in North America. Total loss to shareholders of 47% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • May 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CA$559.4m to CA$545.6m. EPS estimate also fell from CA$1.41 per share to CA$1.19 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 6.4% next year vs 28% growth forecast for Hospitality industry in Canada . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CA$42.38. Share price fell 6.9% to CA$32.56 over the past week. Declared Dividend • May 13
Dividend of CA$0.05 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.05. Ex-date: 28th June 2024 Payment date: 15th July 2024 Dividend yield will be 0.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.0%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 13%. Cash payout ratio: 16%. Reported Earnings • May 09
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$0.26 (up from CA$0.18 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: CA$125.7m (flat on 1Q 2023). Net income: CA$6.93m (up 44% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.5% (up from 3.9% in 1Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 8.7%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.0% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 3.1% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 7% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Tillkännagivande • May 09
Pollard Banknote Limited Declares Cash Dividend for the Period from April 1, 2024 to June 30, 2024, Payable on July 15, 2024 Pollard Banknote Limited declared a cash dividend of $0.05 per Common Share for the period from April 1, 2024 to June 30, 2024. Payment will be made on July 15, 2024 to shareholders of record on June 30, 2024. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Apr 07
Insider exercised options to buy CA$369k worth of stock. On the 1st of April, Paul Franzmann exercised options to buy 10k shares at a strike price of around CA$10.00, costing a total of CA$100k. As of today, Paul currently holds no shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold CA$637k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. 
