Is Woolworths Holdings (JSE:WHL) A Risky Investment?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Woolworths Holdings Limited (JSE:WHL) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Woolworths Holdings

What Is Woolworths Holdings's Debt?

As you can see below, Woolworths Holdings had R6.95b of debt, at December 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has R2.91b in cash leading to net debt of about R4.04b.

How Strong Is Woolworths Holdings' Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Woolworths Holdings had liabilities of R12.7b due within 12 months and liabilities of R15.6b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had R2.91b in cash and R2.11b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total R23.3b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Woolworths Holdings has a market capitalization of R54.0b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

While Woolworths Holdings's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.55 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 4.4 times last year does give us pause. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Importantly Woolworths Holdings's EBIT was essentially flat over the last twelve months. We would prefer to see some earnings growth, because that always helps diminish debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Woolworths Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Woolworths Holdings produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 80% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

The good news is that Woolworths Holdings's demonstrated ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its interest cover. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that Woolworths Holdings can handle its debt fairly comfortably. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Woolworths Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.