Investors more bullish on Collins Property Group (JSE:CPP) this week as stock spikes 20%, despite earnings trending downwards over past five years

This week we saw the Collins Property Group Limited (JSE:CPP) share price climb by 20%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 30%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last five years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

Check out our latest analysis for Collins Property Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Collins Property Group's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 8.5% each year. The share price decline of 7% per year isn't as bad as the EPS decline. So the market may previously have expected a drop, or else it expects the situation will improve.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Collins Property Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Collins Property Group the TSR over the last 5 years was 33%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Collins Property Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 12% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 6% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Collins Property Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for Collins Property Group (of which 3 make us uncomfortable!) you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on South African exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.