In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Kumba Iron Ore Limited (JSE:KIO) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Step by step through the calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (ZAR, Millions)||R24.1b||R26.5b||R21.2b||R18.8b||R17.8b||R17.6b||R18.0b||R18.7b||R19.7b||R21.0b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Est @ -19.97%||Est @ -11.32%||Est @ -5.28%||Est @ -1.04%||Est @ 1.92%||Est @ 4%||Est @ 5.45%||Est @ 6.47%|
|Present Value (ZAR, Millions) Discounted @ 16%||R20.8k||R19.7k||R13.6k||R10.4k||R8.5k||R7.2k||R6.3k||R5.7k||R5.2k||R4.7k|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = R102b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 8.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 16%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = R21b× (1 + 8.8%) ÷ (16%– 8.8%) = R317b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= R317b÷ ( 1 + 16%)10= R71b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is R173b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of R483, the company appears about fair value at a 11% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kumba Iron Ore as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 16%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.045. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Kumba Iron Ore, there are three important factors you should explore:
- Risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for Kumba Iron Ore (2 shouldn't be ignored!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does KIO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every South African stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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