TransAlta Renewables Inc.

OTCPK:TRSW.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.4b

TransAlta Renewables Valuation

Is TRSW.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TRSW.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TRSW.F ($9) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($38.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TRSW.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TRSW.F?

Key metric: As TRSW.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TRSW.F. This is calculated by dividing TRSW.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TRSW.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio42.2x
EarningsCA$78.00m
Market CapCA$3.29b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TRSW.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TRSW.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average62x
RNW ReNew Energy Global
94.1x54.8%US$2.2b
AY Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure
85.8x38.2%US$2.6b
ORA Ormat Technologies
41.6x11.4%US$4.9b
CWEN.A Clearway Energy
26.7x22.0%US$5.8b
TRSW.F TransAlta Renewables
42.2x46.4%US$3.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TRSW.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the peer average (55.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TRSW.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Renewable Energy Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TRSW.F 42.2xIndustry Avg. 15.6xNo. of Companies5PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TRSW.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the North American Renewable Energy industry average (23.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TRSW.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TRSW.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio42.2x
Fair PE Ratio41.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TRSW.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TRSW.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Nov ’25n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Oct ’25n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Sep ’25n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Aug ’25n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Jul ’25n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Jun ’25n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
May ’25n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Apr ’25n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Mar ’25n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Feb ’25n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Jan ’25n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Dec ’24n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Nov ’24n/a
US$9.62
0%
1.6%US$9.88US$9.51n/a6
Oct ’24US$9.02
US$9.71
+7.6%
1.4%US$10.01US$9.64n/a9
Sep ’24US$9.68
US$9.65
-0.3%
1.3%US$9.96US$9.59n/a10
Aug ’24US$10.10
US$9.78
-3.1%
2.4%US$9.87US$9.11n/a9
Jul ’24US$8.59
US$9.85
+14.6%
10.0%US$11.48US$7.78n/a12
Jun ’24US$9.26
US$9.85
+6.3%
10.0%US$11.48US$7.78n/a12
May ’24US$9.34
US$9.82
+5.2%
10.6%US$11.36US$7.70n/a13
Apr ’24US$9.20
US$9.72
+5.6%
10.0%US$11.27US$8.00n/a13
Mar ’24US$8.41
US$9.91
+17.8%
10.0%US$11.39US$8.08n/a13
Feb ’24US$9.16
US$10.32
+12.6%
10.8%US$12.42US$8.28n/a13
Jan ’24US$8.26
US$10.55
+27.7%
13.8%US$12.83US$8.06n/a13
Dec ’23US$10.65
US$12.36
+16.0%
7.0%US$13.45US$10.09n/a13
Nov ’23US$10.65
US$12.55
+17.8%
8.6%US$14.70US$9.92n/a13

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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