Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Spire Inc. (NYSE:SR)

It's not a stretch to say that Spire Inc.'s (NYSE:SR) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 17x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

The recently shrinking earnings for Spire have been in line with the market. The P/E is probably moderate because investors think the company's earnings trend will continue to follow the rest of the market. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. At the very least, you'd be hoping that earnings don't accelerate downwards if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's not in favour.

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Keen to find out how analysts think Spire's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Spire would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 2.5% decrease to the company's bottom line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 17% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 6.0% per annum as estimated by the nine analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it interesting that Spire is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Spire currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Spire (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.