Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, New Jersey Resources Corporation (NYSE:NJR) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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What Is New Jersey Resources's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that New Jersey Resources had US$3.20b in debt in December 2023; about the same as the year before. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.
How Healthy Is New Jersey Resources' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that New Jersey Resources had liabilities of US$962.0m due within a year, and liabilities of US$3.72b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$2.74m and US$269.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$4.41b.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's US$4.13b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
New Jersey Resources has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.0 which suggests a meaningful debt load. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 3.2 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Investors should also be troubled by the fact that New Jersey Resources saw its EBIT drop by 12% over the last twelve months. If that's the way things keep going handling the debt load will be like delivering hot coffees on a pogo stick. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine New Jersey Resources's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, New Jersey Resources saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
To be frank both New Jersey Resources's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its level of total liabilities fails to inspire much confidence. We should also note that Gas Utilities industry companies like New Jersey Resources commonly do use debt without problems. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think New Jersey Resources has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for New Jersey Resources you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:NJR
New Jersey Resources
An energy services holding company, distributes natural gas.
Good value with proven track record and pays a dividend.