Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, FirstEnergy Corp. (NYSE:FE) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for FirstEnergy
How Much Debt Does FirstEnergy Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that FirstEnergy had debt of US$21.6b at the end of December 2022, a reduction from US$23.8b over a year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
How Healthy Is FirstEnergy's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that FirstEnergy had liabilities of US$3.96b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$31.5b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$160.0m in cash and US$1.57b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$33.7b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$21.8b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, FirstEnergy would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
FirstEnergy shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (5.9), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.0 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Another concern for investors might be that FirstEnergy's EBIT fell 11% in the last year. If that's the way things keep going handling the debt load will be like delivering hot coffees on a pogo stick. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if FirstEnergy can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, FirstEnergy recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
Our View
To be frank both FirstEnergy's level of total liabilities and its track record of managing its debt, based on its EBITDA, make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its interest cover fails to inspire much confidence. It's also worth noting that FirstEnergy is in the Electric Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. We think the chances that FirstEnergy has too much debt a very significant. To us, that makes the stock rather risky, like walking through a dog park with your eyes closed. But some investors may feel differently. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that FirstEnergy is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those make us uncomfortable...
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:FE
FirstEnergy
Through its subsidiaries, generates, transmits, and distributes electricity in the United States.
Proven track record second-rate dividend payer.